Miami is walking into the Cotton Bowl as an underdog, but the numbers don't all support Ohio State.
On the Pro Football Focus (PFF) Playoff Preview Show, Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman used advanced numbers to break down the matchup
Miami’s Defensive Line vs. Julian Sayin
PFF analyst Max Chadwick was quick to identify Miami’s advantage up front.
“Two and a half seconds or less is the magic number we use around here. That’s when things go from stable to unstable.”
This is an area the Canes thrive.
“Miami has the second-most pressures and the second-most sacks in the FBS in 2.5 seconds or less.”
That pressure will be needed, as Sayin has been excellent when the ball comes out quickly.
“Julian Sayin in two and a half seconds or less: third-best passing grade in the country, sixth-highest completion percentage, and eight yards per attempt.”
Dalton Wasserman highlighted the schematic decision Miami DC Corey Heatherman will face.
“Do they blitz and leave those one-on-one matchups out there with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? Or do they let off the gas and play zone and make sure things don’t get over the top?”
Max kept coming back to Miami’s edge rushers.
“Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor had 18 pressures against Texas A&M. They were absolutely a problem and they’re going to keep being a problem.”
Bo Jackson vs. Miami’s Run Defense
Dalton turned the conversation to Ohio State’s run game.
“Bo Jackson has over 1,000 rushing yards and nearly 700 yards after contact. Both are the best among all Power Five true freshmen this year.”
Ohio State’s blocking gives him room to work.
“The Buckeyes are seventh in run-blocking grade with a 75.9.”
But Max laid out why Miami presents a problem.
“Miami’s team run-defense grade is 93.1. That’s 11th in the country.”
This could be a wake-up call for Ohio State, which has not regularly faced that level of competition.
“Only two defenses held Ohio State under 24 points this year. It was Indiana and it was Texas. Ohio State scored a combined 24 points in those two games.”
Notably, those were the only two games where Ohio State did not rush for at least 100 yards.
Dalton summed up Miami’s path.
“If Miami can stop the run on early downs and force them into obvious passing situations, then that defensive line can pin their ears back and get after Julian Sayin.”
Mark Fletcher vs. Ohio State’s Interior Defense
Miami’s offense will again lean on Mark Fletcher, but Dalton warned that Ohio State is built to stop exactly what Miami wants to do.
“Ohio State’s defensive line has the best run-defense grade in the country and the highest positively graded play rate.”
At the center of it is DT Kayden McDonald, a projected first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
“McDonald is a brick wall between the tackles. He makes everybody around him better.”
Max put a number on it.
“Kayden McDonald has a 92.2 run-defense grade, which is the best of any defensive tackle in the country. He’s almost three points higher than anyone else.”
Dalton said the matchup will be brutal for Miami's duo run blocking scheme.
“There might be no better defensive tackle to take on double teams in the country right now than him.”
Carson Beck vs. Matt Patricia
When Miami throws the ball, everything starts with protection.
“Carson Beck has an 84 PFF grade when kept clean and a 42 when pressured, which is 112th in the country,” Max said.
Miami has kept him clean as well as anyone in America.
“Miami has an 86.8 pass-blocking grade, third in the country, and Beck gets the ball out in 2.33 seconds, which is third-fastest.”
Because of that combo, Miami only allows a 16 percent pressure rate. No other school in America is below 21 percent.
Ohio State brings a unique set of problems, as they generate consistent pressure without blitzing.
“Ohio State has a 40 percent pressure rate despite only blitzing at the 72nd-highest rate. They’re eighth in the country in pressure rate.”
Dalton said Matt Patricia could change that in this matchup.
“I think we could see Patricia dial up the blitzes a little bit more.”
He pointed to the two biggest threats.
“OLB Arvell Reese can blitz from anywhere, and DE Caden Curry has a 90.1 pass-rush grade and leads the team with 12 sacks.”
Final Predictions
Dalton expects Miami to struggle to generate explosive offense.
“I don’t know how Miami is going to create enough explosive plays. I think Ohio State eventually runs away with it. I’ve got Ohio State 27-10.”
Max has it closer, but the same winner.
“Ohio State still hasn’t allowed 17 points in any game this year. I’ve got it 21-14. Miami covers, but Ohio State wins.”
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