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OT: Lewis as a LB

Tetragrammaton Cane said:
Evals are more important in the pros than in college because you’re choosing from a more limited pool. So Jimmy and Butch’s talent was on more display in the league than in college, imo. Again, there are some kids that have “it” … I think picking a “Vilma” is harder than picking a “Lewis” yet so many clearly missed on Lewis. Look at how many coaches missed on the “Khalil Mack’s”? So are we talking about compilation or the ability to find the true “diamonds in the rough”. Because mostly we agree … but then we give Orgeron credit for “finding” a DT in a TE on his roster.
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anytime you’re looking for skill it’s got to be based on a body of data not an anecdote here or theere. luck can explain a small number trend but not more than that.

i half agree half disagree re the pros. it’s important for the reason you mention but it’s a different type of eval from what butch did with Hs kids. One is more assess (pros). HS is about project a kid who’s a teenager down the road to adult.

there’s likely overlap but not entirely. butch and jimmy were great at both.

it’s an imperfect science even for those who are really good at it.
 
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Ethnicsands said:
Just went for the heck of it and re-watched Ray Lewis UM highlights. (Also NFL.)

What an amazing tackler he was. Instincts, lateral ability, can shed blockers, diagnose plays, can find ball, all great. But dammit the guy always made the play, whether it was a hit, or a wrap, or even a grab. His hands were steel. If he grabbed you, you were caught.

And say what you want, he wasn't 'development' - dude was balling out in his first game at Miami a few weeks after he arrived on campus.

He had DESIRE.

I don't know what Butch would say he looked for - I'd like to know. But IMO guys who have that desire, will work out more than the others.
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3 things:

1. U know I’m big on player development, but I agree, a player gotta want it too. Work ethic gotta be there.

2. Butch certainly had a major eye for talent; the guy built us from the ashes into a super power (only for his successor(s) to totally turn us to an underwear wearing bum)

3. I’m pretty sure Butch had nothing to do w/ picking or even recruiting Ray. I wasn’t sure if it was two separate thoughts or were u connecting the two. But if it was the latter, Ray & Sapp were Erickson guys, not Butch
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
The coaches mirror the fanbases: excuse makers. “We need 5*’s” “They’re paying recruits” “They’re negative recruiting“

You don’t need “rated 5*/4*” if you can truly evaluate and strength and condition at an elite level.
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What we need is the right kids. It doesn’t matter what they’re rated. Now they’re more likely to be rated highly because that’s the world today, but doesn’t matter either way and we should never take kids because others rat them high, or avoid because they don’t. Which kids have the desire to compete, work their **** off, get better, win, support teammates and build their life around football success.
 
Rellyrell said:
3 things:

1. U know I’m big on player development, but I agree, a player gotta want it too. Work ethic gotta be there.

2. Butch certainly had a major eye for talent; the guy built us from the ashes into a super power (only for his successor(s) to totally turn us to an underwear wearing bum)

3. I’m pretty sure Butch had nothing to do w/ picking or even recruiting Ray. I wasn’t sure if it was two separate thoughts or were u connecting the two. But if it was the latter, Ray & Sapp were Erickson guys, not Butch
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Yeah i jumped from ray to evals. ray was Dennis era.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
You nailed it.

In every org you try to identify “what makes a star” and we come up with all these “ingredients“ and mostly it’s bull****, even though it often betters are understanding.

If, and this is an If the height of Olympus Mons, you could find a coach who truly could identify the really talented football players, you’d put every kids in the pros.
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well i agree up to your big if. dsagree there, both on fundamental reasoning and complexity. even if you were right in theory, life intervenes. injuries, academics, off field. so it will never be ‘every kid’. the correlation will not be 1.0.

But that just supports my second point, which is this is all about probabilities not certainties. if you could (a) define the traits better than others and (b) identify the traits you define really well, then you should be materially better than other programs at outperformance of your recruits over time. How to quantify and measure, that’s a different discussion. (It might be as simple as whether your kids outperform their rankings on average, measured in college performance not pros.)

I don’t know whether the pros is the right measure, though it’s one possible measure, because the goal is win in college. It’s entirely possible that trying to find future pros is a flawed strategy for some colleges or position groups or situations. obviously it’s evidence of success when kids don’t just get to the pros but dominate. the question is whether lack of pros is evidence of lack of success - i think that’s less clear - if you’re accomplishing college goals, probably not. also, if you get some pros but fail in your college goals, are the few pros you get evidence of something you’re doing right, or wrong? these aren’t easy questions to answer - impossible in abstract - but they’re what you’d have to sort out if you wanted to approach this topic with data analytics.
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
The coaches mirror the fanbases: excuse makers. “We need 5*’s” “They’re paying recruits” “They’re negative recruiting“

You don’t need “rated 5*/4*” if you can truly evaluate and strength and condition at an elite level.
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Agreed; matter of fact, how often has @gogeta4 or @Liberty City El come on here, name dropping, film dropping 3 star guys, same guys that go elsewhere, do well or even play us & wreck us?

Like ppl always say Bama this, Clemson that...but Bama’s Davey Award winning, Heisman finalist QB was a 3 star QB from Jax. A couple yrs ago, they had some 3 star safety who became a pro bowler named Eddie Jackson from Lauderdale Lakes. We got torched by the Proctor Brothers against Clemson who were 3 stars. And we all know about Isaiah Simmons.

I’ve always said, if we can’t “compete” for the 4 & 5 stars (which is total b.s per our class rankings), well then u better do ur due diligence in ur evals.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
Blind, of course, LOL.

Best is relative. NOT dismissing Butch’s eye for talent, but his bigger gift was being a salesman. In one podcast Jimmy Johnson laughed that Butch would describe every kid as a future HOFer. Anyway, this isn’t a anti-Butch post, it’s just to point out that there is a bit of luck in this. Otherwise, everywhere else he’s been would’ve seen the same results circa 2001.
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I see what you are saying, but what people forget is how different Butch’s situation was in Cleveland, UNC, and FIU.

The NFL is a different animal. UNC was TERRIBLE when he got there, going 3-9 and 4-8 the two seasons before he arrived. FIU was consistently the worst program in FBS for a LONG time.

Only a few guys can be great anywhere. Butch has always been perfect FOR MIAMI. What he did in other stops doesn’t negate that (though I believe people really don’t give him proper credit for what he was doing at UNC before the academic scandal).

Butch is an expert for identifying elite trait’s in less heralded prospects. He probably doesn’t have the same drive to do the TEDIOUS work he did to rebuild Miami at FIU. But I would bet the house that with UM’s brand and no scandals/probation, he would have put together the best performing teams we have seen in nearly 20 years if hired in 2011 or 2015.
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
Blind, of course, LOL.

Best is relative. NOT dismissing Butch’s eye for talent, but his bigger gift was being a salesman. In one podcast Jimmy Johnson laughed that Butch would describe every kid as a future HOFer. Anyway, this isn’t a anti-Butch post, it’s just to point out that there is a bit of luck in this. Otherwise, everywhere else he’s been would’ve seen the same results circa 2001.
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Luck my ***....Younger Cane fans will never understand how hard the staff (95-2000) worked and recruited amidst unparalleled and insurmountable odds...It was waayyyy more recruiting and evaluating excellence vs Luck....
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
I’m going to be blunt: Butch got lucky. Not too different than Manny Diaz/Greg Rousseau. Ok, not a good example…but sometimes you just get lucky, because there are hundreds of “Lewises” each year who definitely would've attended Miami if only they were offered. And, to give coaches credit for kids they didn’t recruit/develop shouldn’t work anyway.

The Ray Lewises of the world can make you look like a genius.
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So every year there are hundreds of generational LBs coming out of HS that will end up in the HOF? lol
 
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plantcity3 said:
All true. Ray came onto Miami’s radar during his last high school game. Kleen was playing ft Myers and Miami coaches was their to watch Jammi German. K leen got blown out but Ray showed out and caught the attention of Miami coaches.
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Yeah, I used to stay down the street from Kathleen, but not when Ray was there. I was there when Kathleen had that State Championship team with B.B. Waldon.
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
But here’s the thing: for Ray to be Day 1 ready in a near-unparalleled way (no disrespect to Shaq) the question shouldn’t be what did Butch see but what could everyone else NOT SEE. Because what he brought to the game wasn’t hidden.
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Butch didn't see anything, Ray was low hanging fruit, but for whatever reason He just wasn't on Miami's radar at the time. Polk County's Gator country anyway.

Correction...Butch didn't recruit Ray, He was in the NFL at the time, Erickson's staff recruited Ray.
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
I’m not going to dispute that, I’m not a Butch hater. My point is it’s hard to consistently find good kids and there’s a bit of luck involved. Can you be more lucky with a great brand sitting in a recruiting garden of eden? Absolutely. Especially if that less heralded kid is actually playing in the games you’re already scouting. North Carolina and Virginia high schools produce enough talent to rival **** near anyone...he could’ve. But, like anywhere else you have to find the right kids. And, it’s a horseshoe pitch.

I consistently say most schools suck and that’s because they consistently bet on the wrong kids/type of kids.
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And keep in mind...from 84-88 Butch was not only JJs Ace recruiter...but his closer sort of speak....God only knows the amount of talent Butch is either solely responsible for..or at the least partially responsible for during his days at UM....Luck only gets you so much....it certainly doesn't get you 25 1st rounders from 95-2003 (03 being Butchs last kids)....
 
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