Yes, very very unlikely. Literally in the last decade we've only been top 40 Offense in Adj EPA/Play (We have finished 41, 42, and 42 as our three best finishes before last season!) once and it was last year lol. We were legit CLEARLY the best offense in the country last year. Relative to the rest of the country I definitely don't think theres like any even hope the gap is as large. However we could be much less efficient than last year, and STILL be #1 in efficiency. Don't think it's likely, but definitely possible tbh. Last year we were 2nd in EPA/Dropback and 5th in EPA/Rush. The Other teams that were just top 20 in BOTH were:
- Army 3rd in EPA/DB, 8th in EPA/Rush ... 2nd overall in Adj EPA/Play
- Ohio St 4th EPA/DB, 19th EPA/Rush ... 3rd overall in Adj EPA/Play
- Oregon 14th in EPA/DB, 20th EPA/Rush ... 4th overall in adj EPA/Play
- ASU 15th in both EPA/DB and EPA/Rush ... 8th overall in adj EPA/Play
- South Alabama 18th EPA/DB, 4th In EPA/Rush ... 12th overall in adj EPA/Play
And we can remove Army and South Alabama given they aren't P4. So there were 4 total P4 teams including us that were top 20 in both. So we can see that like there is a lot of room to drop in Efficiency and still be a top offense. And I would hope our EPA/Rush doesn't fall off too hard. UGA was 6th in EPA/DB (19th EPA/Rush) in 2023 and 36th (37th/Rush) last year. So f we can maintain a relatively efficient Run game, and our WRs don't drop the **** out of the ball like UGA did last year and with Dawson being a better OC than Bobo... I think I'd probably bet that we stick top 20 for both Pass+Rush efficiency... The EPA/Rush is actually probably the most important factor to determine how efficient our offense is. I'm actually pretty confident in Beck to be an efficient Qb. His issue is more ****** turnovers. But as far as running an offense and making passes he SHOULD make, I think he'll do it.
Ideally we'd keep our Offense top 5, and our Defense would rise to top 15...
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