Opener

[UMFarArcher]

So.

We all agree.

Actually no.

I am more scared of our QB/Defense than Petrino and his team.

It's the same thing. If our QB and Defense were sitting on some rails eating ice cream, they wouldn't worry you.

But playing Petrino - they DO scare you - as Petrino playing our QB and Defense likewise scares you.

Same thing, mirror image.

No it isn't. I am not scared of UL, Petrino or playing there.

There is no one on the schedule (besides FSU) who has better talent than us. I just fear that we can't do anything with the talent REGARDLESS of who we play (Nebraska or Virginia Tech or UNC or anyone). So what I fear is our team, not the opponent.

It is not the same thing, I would feel the same way against other teams as well.

Got it. I agree, there is a complete absence of gameday coaching, and zero adjustments.

We got the talent, per your statement (this time I'm on it), but our coaching sucks.

Our coaching sucks. Just wow.

 

[Consigliere]

Nebraska is as talented as we are. Go check the recruiting rankings from 2010-2012.

We probably lose at least 4 games this year. 5 if we somehow back our way into the ACCCG.

Miami v. Nebraska (According to ESPN and 247)

Miami

2010: 13th/15th
2011: UR*/33rd
2012: 8th/10th

AVG ESPN: 16th
AVG 247: 19th

--------------------

Nebraska

2010: UR/27th
2011: UR/16th
2012: UR/30th

AVG ESPN: 26th
AVG 247: 24th

UR = Unranked in the top 25 according to ESPN. I put in a 26th for each UR.

According to ESPN and 247 we're much more talented than them.

In addition, I would consider 2013 as well. Especially since some of our best players are in the 2013 class (Coley, AQM, Olsen, Carter, Grace) and could be starting. I didn't for the analysis, but it should count.

Miami

2013: 15th/14th

Nebraska

2013: 23rd/22nd

As for the bold part, I don't understand what that means.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Nebraska is as talented as we are. Go check the recruiting rankings from 2010-2012.

We probably lose at least 4 games this year. 5 if we somehow back our way into the ACCCG.

Miami v. Nebraska (According to ESPN and 247)

Miami

2010: 13th/15th
2011: UR*/33rd
2012: 8th/10th

AVG ESPN: 16th
AVG 247: 19th

--------------------

Nebraska

2010: UR/27th
2011: UR/16th
2012: UR/30th

AVG ESPN: 26th
AVG 247: 24th

UR = Unranked in the top 25 according to ESPN. I put in a 26th for each UR.

According to ESPN and 247 we're much more talented than them.

In addition, I would consider 2013 as well. Especially since some of our best players are in the 2013 class (Coley, AQM, Olsen, Carter, Grace) and could be starting. I didn't for the analysis, but it should count.

Miami

2013: 15th/14th

Nebraska

2013: 23rd/22nd

As for the bold part, I don't understand what that means.

I used Rivals rankings theirs are quite a bit different.

The bold part is pretty self explanatory. If we have to play FSU twice we lose both of those the second loss to FSU in the ACCCG would be our 5th loss on the season. (shame on me for assuming that this staff could win their bowl game.)

 

[Consigliere]

Nebraska is as talented as we are. Go check the recruiting rankings from 2010-2012.

We probably lose at least 4 games this year. 5 if we somehow back our way into the ACCCG.

Miami v. Nebraska (According to ESPN and 247)

Miami

2010: 13th/15th
2011: UR*/33rd
2012: 8th/10th

AVG ESPN: 16th
AVG 247: 19th

--------------------

Nebraska

2010: UR/27th
2011: UR/16th
2012: UR/30th

AVG ESPN: 26th
AVG 247: 24th

UR = Unranked in the top 25 according to ESPN. I put in a 26th for each UR.

According to ESPN and 247 we're much more talented than them.

In addition, I would consider 2013 as well. Especially since some of our best players are in the 2013 class (Coley, AQM, Olsen, Carter, Grace) and could be starting. I didn't for the analysis, but it should count.

Miami

2013: 15th/14th

Nebraska

2013: 23rd/22nd

As for the bold part, I don't understand what that means.

I used Rivals rankings theirs are quite a bit different.

The bold part is pretty self explanatory. If we have to play FSU twice we lose both of those the second loss to FSU in the ACCCG would be our 5th loss on the season.

I refuse to go on Rivals/Yahoo! because of that whole Ferman & Robinson thing but it is pretty clear that we have more TALENT according to the recruiting websites.

Ignoring the ACCCG, who are those 4 Ls against?

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Nebraska is as talented as we are. Go check the recruiting rankings from 2010-2012.

We probably lose at least 4 games this year. 5 if we somehow back our way into the ACCCG.

Miami v. Nebraska (According to ESPN and 247)

Miami

2010: 13th/15th
2011: UR*/33rd
2012: 8th/10th

AVG ESPN: 16th
AVG 247: 19th

--------------------

Nebraska

2010: UR/27th
2011: UR/16th
2012: UR/30th

AVG ESPN: 26th
AVG 247: 24th

UR = Unranked in the top 25 according to ESPN. I put in a 26th for each UR.

According to ESPN and 247 we're much more talented than them.

In addition, I would consider 2013 as well. Especially since some of our best players are in the 2013 class (Coley, AQM, Olsen, Carter, Grace) and could be starting. I didn't for the analysis, but it should count.

Miami

2013: 15th/14th

Nebraska

2013: 23rd/22nd

As for the bold part, I don't understand what that means.

I used Rivals rankings theirs are quite a bit different.

The bold part is pretty self explanatory. If we have to play FSU twice we lose both of those the second loss to FSU in the ACCCG would be our 5th loss on the season.

I refuse to go on Rivals/Yahoo! because of that whole Ferman & Robinson thing but it is pretty clear that we have more TALENT according to the recruiting websites.

Ignoring the ACCCG, who are those 4 Ls against?

Birds, Neb, FSU, + one of VT, NC, Duke.

Rivals rankings would dispute your claim that we have more talent than Neb. You choose 247 I chose Rivals. I honestly couldn't tell you which service is more accurate.

 

[Consigliere]

Birds, Neb, FSU, + one of VT, NC, Duke.

Rivals rankings would dispute your claim that we have more talent than Neb. You choose 247 I chose Rivals. I honestly couldn't tell you which service is more accurate.

I choose 247 and ESPN. Even incorporating Rivals (I found a way to look up the ranking without going to the site FARK FERMAN!!!!)

Miami

2010: 13th/15th/16th
2011: UR*/33rd/36th
2012: 8th/10th/9th

AVG ESPN: 16th
AVG 247: 19th
AVG Rivals: 20th
AVG EVERYTHING: 18th

Nebraska

2010: UR/27th/22nd
2011: UR/16th/15th
2012: UR/30th/25th

AVG ESPN: 26th
AVG 247: 24th
AVG Rivals: 21st
AVG EVERYTHING: 24th

The only reason it is REMOTELY close is because of 2011 (when we had no time to recruit). Still these 2011 kids are the seniors now.

I don't see 5-3 getting to the ACCCG.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Birds, Neb, FSU, + one of VT, NC, Duke.

Rivals rankings would dispute your claim that we have more talent than Neb. You choose 247 I chose Rivals. I honestly couldn't tell you which service is more accurate.

I choose 247 and ESPN. Even incorporating Rivals (I found a way to look up the ranking without going to the site FARK FERMAN!!!!)

Miami

2010: 13th/15th/16th
2011: UR*/33rd/36th
2012: 8th/10th/9th

AVG ESPN: 16th
AVG 247: 19th
AVG Rivals: 20th
AVG EVERYTHING: 18th

Nebraska

2010: UR/27th/22nd
2011: UR/16th/15th
2012: UR/30th/25th

AVG ESPN: 26th
AVG 247: 24th
AVG Rivals: 21st
AVG EVERYTHING: 24th

The only reason it is REMOTELY close is because of 2011 (when we had no time to recruit). Still these 2011 kids are the seniors now.

I don't see 5-3 getting to the ACCCG.

Hence the phrase "backing our way in"

6 spots difference on a composite score over the course of 3 years and over 120 teams involved really isn't that much of a difference IMO.

 

[Consigliere]

Hence the phrase "backing our way in"

6 spots difference on a composite score over the course of 3 years and over 120 teams involved really isn't that much of a difference IMO.

The only reason it is close is because of 2011. In addition, we have a lot of key players in our 1/2 deep from 2013 (i.e. AQM, Figs, Grace, Olsen, Coley). Honestly, this is a waste of time to argue, we know that Miami has more talent (to what degree DUNNO).

To me Nebraska is ONE PLAYER....Ameer Abdullah

In their 4 Ls last season, he has 1 Rushing TD and 471 Rushing Yards or 118 Rushing YPG and .25 TDPG

In their 9 Ws last heason, he has 8 Rushing TDs and 1219 Rushing Yards or 135 Rushing YPG and .9 TDPG

My guess is he is going to run a lot more this year. Hopefully the loss of 4 starting OL [Spencer Long, Andy Rodriguez, Brent Qvale and Jeremiah Sirles (they had 113 starts between them)] is to our advantage.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Hence the phrase "backing our way in"

6 spots difference on a composite score over the course of 3 years and over 120 teams involved really isn't that much of a difference IMO.

The only reason it is close is because of 2011. In addition, we have a lot of key players in our 1/2 deep from 2013 (i.e. AQM, Figs, Grace, Olsen, Coley). Honestly, this is a waste of time to argue, we know that Miami has more talent (to what degree DUNNO).

To me Nebraska is ONE PLAYER....Ameer Abdullah

In their 4 Ls last season, he has 1 Rushing TD and 471 Rushing Yards or 118 Rushing YPG and .25 TDPG

In their 9 Ws last heason, he has 8 Rushing TDs and 1219 Rushing Yards or 135 Rushing YPG and .9 TDPG

My guess is he is going to run a lot more this year. Hopefully the loss of 4 starting OL [Spencer Long, Andy Rodriguez, Brent Qvale and Jeremiah Sirles (they had 113 starts between them)] is to our advantage.

And all those guys are upperclassmen now. 2011 is a big deal in this scenario.

Gonna be tough for a frosh QB or RW in his first game back to go into Memorial Stadium and win.

Also gonna be Miami's longest road trip since the Sun Bowl no? (I could be wrong on this didn't bother to fact check just going off of memory)

 

[Consigliere]

And all those guys are upperclassmen now. 2011 is a big deal in this scenario.

Gonna be tough for a frosh QB or RW in his first game back to go into Memorial Stadium and win.

Also gonna be Miami's longest road trip since the Sun Bowl no? (I could be wrong on this didn't bother to fact check just going off of memory)

I get what you're saying, it just is for the first time that our real class (2012) is/are upperclassmen. Hence why I brought up 2011 not really mattering for US (not in general, just for Miami). Most of our 2012 class is/are the upperclassmen and 1 & 2 on the depth chart.

The good news about our QB situation is we probably will have it figured out during those weeks in between UL and Nebraska. I have to imagine we will know the guy to lead us for the rest of the season prior to this game. In addition, if the starter can handle UL (that environment), than this won't be much different.

When you say longest road trip? Do you mean actual distance traveled?

 

[Cane1996]

And all those guys are upperclassmen now. 2011 is a big deal in this scenario.

Gonna be tough for a frosh QB or RW in his first game back to go into Memorial Stadium and win.

Also gonna be Miami's longest road trip since the Sun Bowl no? (I could be wrong on this didn't bother to fact check just going off of memory)

I get what you're saying, it just is for the first time that our real class (2012) is/are upperclassmen. Hence why I brought up 2011 not really mattering for US (not in general, just for Miami). Most of our 2012 class is/are the upperclassmen and 1 & 2 on the depth chart.

The good news about our QB situation is we probably will have it figured out during those weeks in between UL and Nebraska. I have to imagine we will know the guy to lead us for the rest of the season prior to this game. In addition, if the starter can handle UL (that environment), than this won't be much different.

When you say longest road trip? Do you mean actual distance traveled?

I don't know about all of this stuff, but this I do know.

Playing against Petrino is a frightening prospect. Our only hope is that the team hasn't gelled yet because it's his first game.

Our boy Lamar Thomas is coaching against us in this game, too.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

I get what you're saying, it just is for the first time that our real class (2012) is/are upperclassmen. Hence why I brought up 2011 not really mattering for US (not in general, just for Miami). Most of our 2012 class is/are the upperclassmen and 1 & 2 on the depth chart.

The good news about our QB situation is we probably will have it figured out during those weeks in between UL and Nebraska. I have to imagine we will know the guy to lead us for the rest of the season prior to this game. In addition, if the starter can handle UL (that environment), than this won't be much different.

When you say longest road trip? Do you mean actual distance traveled?

I'm not sure our QB situation will be settled until RW is back healthy. Unless Olsen tears it up and closes the door on RW. When exactly that will be I don't know. I do know it isn't settled right now.

As far as longest road trip, I guess my point was that every time an AG Canes team goes to the midwest against a good team we get curb stomped.

Maybe our run game will be dominant enough to carry poor QB play if we encounter it. Maybe not.

 

[Consigliere]

I'm not sure our QB situation will be settled until RW is back healthy. Unless Olsen tears it up and closes the door on RW. When exactly that will be I don't know. I do know it isn't settled right now.

As far as longest road trip, I guess my point was that every time an AG Canes team goes to the midwest against a good team we get curb stomped.

Maybe our run game will be dominant enough to carry poor QB play if we encounter it. Maybe not.

It will be settled means that we will likely have a starter at that point and not doing trial and error (i.e. Olsen on a short leash). That doesn't mean we will have good QB play, just the starter will likely be chosen.

As for the run game, we will run the chit out of the ball this year.

 

[millertime26]

lol dukes gonna beat Louisville is that what we've come to

 

[millertime26]

Louisville is going to put at least 35 points on us

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Spread is down to 3. 5Dimes is smart to hang early numbers to draw some action and publicity, but they cover themselves with a 40 cent cut instead of 20. Taking or giving the 3 is -120 juice right now.

Normally this spot would be a huge motivational edge for Louisville. Once you beat a team away from your building, particularly decisively, in a competitively priced game, and then host the same team very shortly thereafter, the Fury of Anti-Revenge angle kicks in. It's the most powerful variable I've discovered in more than 25 years as a handicapper. There's a public and media misconception that the advantage belongs to the road team, seeking revenge. Meanwhile, the home team is incredibly energized, determined to verify the pecking order by smacking the visitor in the mouth again. It can lead to first half avalanches that are breathtaking to behold.

Once I discovered this angle in 1988 I was able to explain many old outcomes that had previously made no sense to me. For example, the '73 Dolphins hosted Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. I attended the game while in junior high school. The first half of that game featured bizarre level of ferocity from the Dolphins. They were frenzied and attacking on every play. It equated to a 30-3 halftime lead over a very talented team. Then during the second half the energy reversed, and Miami barely held on for a 30-26 win. That was the game in which Shula fooled Cosell, Gifford and Meredith by calling for an intentional safety with roughly 2 minutes remaining and Miami ahead 30-24.

Anyway, not until 1988 did I realize the variable in play for that game. Miami had defeated Pittsburgh in the 1972 AFC Championship Game on the road. It was a famed game, remembered for Larry Seiple's fake punt, and Griese replacing Morrall to start the third quarter. The Steelers were frustrated after that game. They bemoaned missed opportunities and the fake punt, implying that the better team lost. The Dolphins stewed over those claims for months. Once they had an opportunity on the field, they couldn't wait to attack the Steelers and shut them up. Often there's so much spent energy in the first half that the team struggles to get to the wire. Normally the margin is sufficient to allow them to hold on.

The 1988 Canes rout of Florida State 31-0 in the opener is what caused me to identify this angle. Miami was a home underdog in the Orange Bowl, despite Walsh returning and the Canes as defending national champion. Fans and media preferred the revenge motive of Florida State, after the Seminoles blew the huge lead at home late the prior season, losing 27-26. It was obvious Florida State expected to take the field and not only be the better team but to own greater motivation. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. A more recent example is when Boise State upset Oregon on the road several years ago, and then hosted them in a prime time opener the following season. Oregon's high powered offense literally couldn't make a first down in the first half. Boise State was jumping all over the place and looked like they had 15 defenders on the field. Similar last season when Stanford hosted Oregon and jumped to the huge lead before sputtering toward the wire. Stanford had upset Oregon on the road the previous season as 13 point underdogs, ruining the Ducks' title hopes. The Cardinal owned FAR in 2013 and took full advantage, leading 26-0 before trying to give away the game late.

Fortunately, Louisville has experienced many changes. That helps to diminish the FAR edge. If they had the same coaching staff and quarterback returning, even if that quarterback were far lower caliber than Bridgewater, I wouldn't give us much of a chance. As is, the bulk of their team will be in energized attack mode to open the game but we might be able to withstand and counter.

However, this is the worst possible date for this matchup, an opener with nothing else in between other than their memories of dismantling us, and determined to have fun and do it again.

 

[cardinalfan123]

Don't know what to expect from you guys in the opener. From what I can tell it's largely the same team that we slaughtered a couple months ago minus some starters plus Duke Johnson.

If Shawn Watson, who ran one of the most vanilla offenses in the history of organized football, can manage 36 points on your defense then it'll be a long day for your guys come August. Petrino wants this game BAD and with it being the only game on TV on Labor Day the whole city will be fired up. The only question mark is our defense which is learning a new scheme, but to be honest we lined up with 3-4 and 3-3-5 to go along with our base 4-3 last year so it won't be entirely new to them. If we can keep Duke from going off and force your OC to rely on the passing game it'll get ugly pretty quick. The good news for us is that we don't need an exceptional defense with Petrino calling the plays as we found out from his first stint here.

My prediction is Louisville 49 Miami 31, but to be honest it's way too early to say anything for sure.

 

[pb5cane]

Cardinalfan123, DJohnson hung 97 yds on FSU's D before his 3rd qtr injury. You're right to point him out. He will be the key to the game. My money is on him rushing for 130 or more and in the process opening up the play action midrange throws.

As for your O, I think replacing Bridgewater will be much harder than you think. Shawn Watson didn't kill us Bridgewater did. I think we hang 40 on you guys and welcome you to the acc.

 

[cardinalfan123]

Cardinalfan123, DJohnson hung 97 yds on FSU's D before his 3rd qtr injury. You're right to point him out. He will be the key to the game. My money is on him rushing for 130 or more and in the process opening up the play action midrange throws.

As for your O, I think replacing Bridgewater will be much harder than you think. Shawn Watson didn't kill us Bridgewater did. I think we hang 40 on you guys and welcome you to the acc.

Will Gardner threw for over 500 yards in our spring game. I'm not worried about him in the least. He may not have Brigewater's intangibles but then again he doesn't need to. Petrino has a weird way of extracting every ounce of talent out of every player. Along with a solid QB we've got 5/6 of our top WRs and 3/4 of our running backs. We've also upgraded our OL coach which was the weakest unit on last year's offense.

I also don't understand how you think your offense, which loses a four year starter at QB along with various pieces, will score 40 on the same team it could only muster 9 against in December. Duke Johnson is good but he alone isn't worth 31 points.

 

[pb5cane]

Cardinalfan123, DJohnson hung 97 yds on FSU's D before his 3rd qtr injury. You're right to point him out. He will be the key to the game. My money is on him rushing for 130 or more and in the process opening up the play action midrange throws.

As for your O, I think replacing Bridgewater will be much harder than you think. Shawn Watson didn't kill us Bridgewater did. I think we hang 40 on you guys and welcome you to the acc.

Will Gardner threw for over 500 yards in our spring game. I'm not worried about him in the least. He may not have Brigewater's intangibles but then again he doesn't need to. Petrino has a weird way of extracting every ounce of talent out of every player. Along with a solid QB we've got 5/6 of our top WRs and 3/4 of our running backs. We've also upgraded our OL coach which was the weakest unit on last year's offense.

I also don't understand how you think your offense, which loses a four year starter at QB along with various pieces, will score 40 on the same team it could only muster 9 against in December. Duke Johnson is good but he alone isn't worth 31 points.

He sustains drives and is the heart of the TEAM. Similar to what you lost in Bridgewater. Btw Coley, Dorsett and Lewis are going to have solid performances. 40 points: 1 td per qtr, couple fgs and 1 spcl teams td.