On Ny Carr...Staying at UM

[SCarolina Ibis]

Do you think the new changes will push college football back to a time where programs are limited in what they can offer, and SEC schools start getting more aggressive with under the table deals again?

**** yeah they will. Every coach I've talked to thinks this is exactly where its headed.

You know what the crazy part is though? They might not have to.

The clearinghouse in charge of determining if NIL deals are considered "fair market value" has already said they won't be releasing their formula.

What do you want to bet that what they consider "fair market value" for an ACC QB will be lower than what a QB from the SEC or B1G gets?

 

[Ispyin]

Let’s be honest you get excited and pop one everytime someone makes a routine play on Greentree. Robert Stafford one of many examples.

 

[SIBCanes]

It has diminished HS recruiting as a whole in my view point. Our 23 class is all but gone and we are going into year 3 there and the 24 class is now falling apart. Just goes with the times, but the arguments that the portal wasnt sustainable, I thought it would only be used as a supplement, are not aging well at all.

It is tough choice from the coaching staff. If you want to compete at the highest level it is hard having unproven players start. But, it is hard for the kids to develop sitting on the bench and every year bringing in new players to play ahead of you. We are in catch22

 

[Wake_Cane]

Yeah. People are so out of their mind with eval % expectations. Bro 25% success rate on evals is actually solid lol. With 85 roster spots teams were pretty much always adding 25-30 new players yearly (30-35% new yearly). We are about to be at 105 roster spots and players have 5yrs of eligibility basically. So if that same % stayed for 105 roster spots we are going to be bringing in like 32-37 new additions yearly.


But Realistically there are like 35-40 players max that actually see important reps (not including ST) on game days. So if we bring in about 35 new players yearly, and only about 35-40 actually see meaningful reps on any given GameDay, and they have 4-5 yrs eligibility... A 25% hit rate is like exactly what you need lol.

The actual reality is you want to be like 90% hit rate with portal additions, and closer to 30% or better hit rate with HS additions... But that means no matter how you look at it you should expect far more misses than hits. Even in the NFL draft it's not even about % hit rate, they just hope to get like 3 starters out of the draft yearly.... That's 32 teams hoping to get 3 starters out of 257 picks = 37%... And we know over half the league doesn't accomplish that goal lol

So Nobel prize winning economist Richard Thaler published a research paper that did a deep dive into then previous 25 NFL drafts. He came up with an effective way of assessing the value of an individual NFL player (he used # of games a player started over the life of their rookie contract as a proxy for value derived by a franchise from the selection, it turns out that it is a perfect proxy to use) and then used that to assess every single selection of every round in those 25 years. I am grossly oversimplifying his methodology but every single objection you might think to raise to it he thought of it too and included an airtight rebuttal of it in the paper. In one section of it he assessed for each of the 10,000+ draft selections that were analyzed, what % of them were "good" decisions. He defined good decision in terms that were overly favorable to GMs (Good = the player selected started more games over their rookie contract than the # of games started by the next player of the same position selected in that same draft). The end result? NFL franchises make the right choice 52% of the time. To put that in perspective, using his overly favorable definition of "good" pick, NFL GMs barely outperform a monkey flipping a coin.

TLDR key quote from that paper is:
"This... suggests a discrepancy between (NFL) teams’ perceived and actual ability to discriminate between prospective players." In other words, even NFL franchises are on the whole pretty bad at projecting players' future production.

 

[TheATLCane]

It has diminished HS recruiting as a whole in my view point. Our 23 class is all but gone and we are going into year 3 there and the 24 class is now falling apart. Just goes with the times, but the arguments that the portal wasnt sustainable, I thought it would only be used as a supplement, are not aging well at all.

Freshman year is becoming more like a paid internship. If it's a mutual fit a bigger offer is made to stick around after the first year

 

[Calinative]

So Nobel prize winning economist Richard Thaler published a research paper that did a deep dive into then previous 25 NFL drafts. He came up with an effective way of assessing the value of an individual NFL player (he used # of games a player started over the life of their rookie contract as a proxy for value derived by a franchise from the selection, it turns out that it is a perfect proxy to use) and then used that to assess every single selection of every round in those 25 years. I am grossly oversimplifying his methodology but every single objection you might think to raise to it he thought of it too and included an airtight rebuttal of it in the paper. In one section of it he assessed for each of the 10,000+ draft selections that were analyzed, what % of them were "good" decisions. He defined good decision in terms that were overly favorable to GMs (Good = the player selected started more games over their rookie contract than the # of games started by the next player of the same position selected in that same draft). The end result? NFL franchises make the right choice 52% of the time. To put that in perspective, using his overly favorable definition of "good" pick, NFL GMs barely outperform a monkey flipping a coin.

TLDR key quote from that paper is:
"This... suggests a discrepancy between (NFL) teams’ perceived and actual ability to discriminate between prospective players."

Yes that is good perspective. However how that relates to CFB is actually even more inflated, because while the NFL team drafts a player and gets them contractually obligated for 4-5 years, that is not the case in CFB. So You the team can say a guy in Year 4 that say starts the entire season may be considered a hit then and better than the selections after them, but for us there is no guaranteed 4 years or prenegotiated pay scale. We can move on or they can move on. And if we are paying them a lot and they haven't produced in 1.5 yrs (like Carr) and they choose to see if its greener on the other side of the hill... well Does that mean it is no longer a hit? He may very well still go on to be a hit for the next team.

So we aren't even basing Hits and Misses on Evals on whether the player actually is good in College, it's about whether they produced FOR YOU (cause thats all we as miami fans care about) which significantly compresses the timeline especially the more they are paid.

So its like yeah that saying the NFL teams were right around 52% of the time. Then you factor in obvously Top 5-10 picks should have significantly higher hit rate, 1st rounders should be higher than 3rd and than 7th, etc, AND That they have a full 4 years to be considered a hit mostly... Well obviously it should be clear as day for our circumstances, the excpectations should be far lower than that. The portal hit rate should be maybe higher than the top 5-10 pick hit rate. Maybe 5star hit rate out of HS should be close to 1st round hit rate (but again you have the compressed timeline to consider them a hit). Then there is a giant margin between high 4 star and high 3star guys in what should be considered hit rate....


As for the NFL this is why I believe the tier drafting system is really kinda the best - and why there is actually a lot of value in just using Consensus big boards. There is a lot of wisdom in combining many views. But if You just group them by tiers, the chances you can perfectly rank one 3rd round WR above the other inside the same tier is basically a coin flip. So it doesn't really matter all that much WHICH one you get. The best strategy just continues to be acquire as many good value draft picks as possible.... At the end of the day you have 22 starting jobs and 48 active on the roster on gameday. If you have 4 draft picks like the Vikings this year or 12 like the 49ers, who cares HOW you get to the 3-4 starters? In fact it makes sense to have a worse hit rate, cause you just make it easier and more likely you accomplish your goal that way...

 

[Calinative]

The clearinghouse in charge of determining if NIL deals are considered "fair market value" has already said they won't be releasing their formula.

What do you want to bet that what they consider "fair market value" for an ACC QB will be lower than what a QB from the SEC or B1G gets?

Good point.

 

[BeastMode]

I agree with this. It’s not good at all to see your top kids dip. It also isn’t a good look for top recruits to see either.

WR are about to see multiple Cane WR get drafted so I doubt they care if a kid from Georgia didn’t pan out.

Recruits aren’t as emotional as you all are.

Miami needs to win and our kids in the league consistently. Whether that’s through highschool or the portal, doesn’t matter so much anymore.

 

[ssvir]

I’m not stupid enough to think we never miss an eval. I’m also not stupid enough to believe that we’re the only one who does. Especially considering Ny Carr was originally committed to Georgia.

We don't take anyone from Georgia that UGA/Bama/Auburn really wanted.

 

[Alex_Dynamix]

WR are about to see multiple Cane WR get drafted so I doubt they care if a kid from Georgia didn’t pan out.

Recruits aren’t as emotional as you all are.

Miami needs to win and our kids in the league consistently. Whether that’s through highschool or the portal, doesn’t matter so much anymore.

Bingo, We can sit here n argue about high schoolers vs portal players but personally IDGAF whatever strategy we use to get to a natty just get it done.

 

[CANESCANES]

I am saying that in no way do I buy/believe that Ny Carr has reached his full potential. When you say plateau, that is how I perceive that. Forget about anyone else, I am talking specifically on Ny the football player.

Anyone saying a guy plateau after his freshman year is insane, especially for a Top 100 recruit

Development is not linear at all. This microwave society is insane

 

[Sebastianspipe]

It’s not really that complicated. Those guys received praise when they played well and showed flashes. All three are really talented.

They stopped receiving praise in spring because they didn’t have good springs. That was because of injury, slowed development, or (in some cases, not Carr) off-field issues.

This has become a win-now sport. Guys that could previously work through issues often end up in the Portal. They’re expensive to the team, and the players want opportunity.

All three of these guys fall in the same category: talented prospects who showed flashes but failed to make any progress in spring. It’s not ideal for anybody that it didn’t work out, but it’s reality. The good news for them is that they can rebound at the next spot, and the good news for us is that we have more money to use on other players.

Precisely this. In another generation, Rudolph would be a stud here eventually. He wants to play, imo is similar to Pickett with much higher ceiling but not as ready yet. Kids don’t wait these days, especially those making $. Carr was a huge get last year and cost quite a bit. When you are the same player this spring as you were last spring but with some injury history now, it is what it is. You’re paid to play, not sit and be passed up by our 3 freshman wr. Can he regroup and be a good player, sure. Would he be paid the same? No shot. This is a a true business now. Kids want to make the $, well they also need to grow up quickly and understand how business works.

Horton and Quan, writing was on the wall. Why have we constantly been told we need a DT and S? Because these two weren’t going to be the guys in those rotations.

 

[k9cane]

the days of development are over, this is about immediate production(or at least enough promise early on) in the NIL/portal era. Some guys get impatient, other guys are processed out. Every situation is a bit different...

Guys like Andre Brown and Dale Dawkins --yeah, Im old, but lucky enough to have gone through this era of UM football -- not playing till around their 4th and 5th years and still making the league, are relics of the past

As are stories like Darrell Langham, 'program guys' who just kinda stick around, are content with that, coaches don't think they are a problem, and then they have a great moment or two. We remember them fondly, and leave a mark on the program and then move on with their lives...

It is what it is, but it's not as fun (at least until Cristobal can win it all)

 

[DemCanes10]

I love like Miami fans think we the only team that loses high level recruits....Just glorious logic...

This is the new college football free agent market....

 

[TRick72]

I for one I’m glad we’re not counting on an EE who flashed this spring to take the next step in the fall and

the days of development are over, this is about immediate production(or at least enough promise early on) in the NIL/portal era. Some guys get impatient, other guys are processed out. Every situation is a bit different...

Guys like Andre Brown and Dale Dawkins --yeah, Im old, but lucky enough to have gone through this era of UM football -- not playing till around their 4th and 5th years and still making the league, are relics of the past

As our stories like Darrell Langham, 'program guys' who just kinda stick around, are content with that, coaches don't think they are a problem, and then they have a great moment or two. We remember them fondly, and leave a mark on the program and then move on with their lives...

It is what it is, but it's not as fun (at least until Cristobal can win it all)

 

[DMoney]

Anyone saying a guy plateau after his freshman year is insane, especially for a Top 100 recruit

Development is not linear at all. This microwave society is insane

This is not the end of Ny Carr’s story. He’s a sophomore. I think he’ll be a good player. But there is urgency because Miami is desperate to win, he’s desperate to play and there is real money involved.

 

[CANESCANES]

This is not the end of Ny Carr’s story. He’s a sophomore. I think he’ll be a good player. But there is urgency because Miami is desperate to win, he’s desperate to play and there is real money involved.

How does schools like Ohio State retain their 5 star players? Like Brandon Innis?

 

[k9cane]

I suppose this is where I'm showing my age and possible reluctance to accept changes, but I can remember the 1983 National Championship football team having starters on the team who were
at one point presumed career backups or busts at best during their first couple of years. Two on the Oline and the other being a TE and yet they blossomed into very good team members.
There were others all over the years.
I don't get this lack of patience by fans, players and apparently coaches too.
I blame the players for quitting on themselves as much as I blame the coaches too for encouraging this behavior as well.
The entire college athletic landscape has gone bonkers.

I really wonder if Butch Davis could have rebuilt the program the manner in which he did in today's era

Back then you had to live with guys early mistakes, other guys didn't play till at least their 3rd year in the program. A lot of players AND coaches trusted the process, regardless. There wasn't this rate of attrition you see in many programs today

 

[DMoney]

How does schools like Ohio State retain their 5 star players? Like Brandon Innis?View attachment 323173

They didn’t keep Julian Fleming. But they’ve recruited so many five stars it didn’t matter. For us to get to that level, we need to win battles like Jeremiah Smith.

I’d say the biggest reason Carr is not here because the freshmen performed at a high level in spring. They need to carry it into camp.

 

[Calinative]

How does schools like Ohio State retain their 5 star players? Like Brandon Innis?View attachment 323173

Do you know if Ohio State has spent more money than us or not? Do you know if Innis renegotiated his deal to remain whereas perhaps Carr didn't want to? Innis was their clear WR 4 last year. Is Carr our WR4 this year? Innis likely thought he had a clear path to a bigger role the Following year (this upcoming one). Does Carr think that?

Again Daniels and Trader seems to be the clear top 2. By all accounts Toney has earned more reps and was currently 3rd as things stood. Moore has done well and may have surpassed him too. I personally don't believe the reports about Ray Ray stepping up, but hey if that's true.... And we have been clear we intend to bring in a top portal WR.