On Ny Carr...Staying at UM

[Hurracanes]

Yes. Hopefully the new third-party enforcement arm is less corrupt than the NCAA.

Interesting. No way Mario allows to get played by other schools. Unlike previous regimes, I can see Miami supporting him at all cost.

 

[Calinative]

What a ******* stupid post.

It's the same ole same ole with you. Blame the coaches. The coaches are always to blame.

The truth is that there is blame to share for plateauing/not developing. Some of it is on the coaches, maybe they didn't motivate properly, teach well enough, or provide the right guidance. But it's pretty reasonable to put more than 50% on the individual. Lots of factors could be to blame. Laziness is an easy word to use, but there are plenty of college students, athletes and non-athletes, who do not flourish in college at the age of 18 or 19.

It is nearly impossible to predict who will have the right mix of skills to push themselves to the next level. I saw plenty of college classmates who were well-prepared for success...who then flailed around once they were on their own.

Nobody has a crystal ball or 100% success rate in predicting which 17-18 year olds will grow and succeed once they are in college. It's why there is (generally) a higher success rate with Portal players, as they've had a couple of years to prove themselves at the college level.

But, sure..."missed eval and/or poor eval". It's always the same with you.

Yeah. People are so out of their mind with eval % expectations. Bro 25% success rate on evals is actually solid lol. With 85 roster spots teams were pretty much always adding 25-30 new players yearly (30-35% new yearly). We are about to be at 105 roster spots and players have 5yrs of eligibility basically. So if that same % stayed for 105 roster spots we are going to be bringing in like 32-37 new additions yearly.


But Realistically there are like 35-40 players max that actually see important reps (not including ST) on game days. So if we bring in about 35 new players yearly, and only about 35-40 actually see meaningful reps on any given GameDay, and they have 4-5 yrs eligibility... A 25% hit rate is like exactly what you need lol.

The actual reality is you want to be like 90% hit rate with portal additions, and closer to 30% or better hit rate with HS additions... But that means no matter how you look at it you should expect far more misses than hits. Even in the NFL draft it's not even about % hit rate, they just hope to get like 3 starters out of the draft yearly.... That's 32 teams hoping to get 3 starters out of 257 picks = 37%... And we know over half the league doesn't accomplish that goal lol

 

[Alex_Dynamix]

I am confused now. And this is nothing personal, I'm just asking a few questions.

If "a lot of posters" said it, then it's not coming from UM or @DMoney , right?

And if they said that on gameday threads...HOW? Emory barely played in 2024.

Those questions are not directed at you individually, I just don't see how people could be fooled here. There were also threads about our pursuit of John Mateer, and that was weeks before the bowl game.

I like Emory. I respect Emory. I support all of my fellow UM alums. But I had no delusions about whether he would be our starting QB. Ever. No matter what any coaches said after practices and no matter what any posters said in gameday threads, I knew all season long that we would pursue another transfer QB after Cam. It wasn't even debateable.

The only debate was WHO we would get from the Portal to succeed Cam Ward.

Correct. It never came from UM or Dmoney that we were riding with him as our starting QB but CIS posters definitely ran the “get ready for a 5-7 season w/ Emory as our QB” narrative into the ground, embarrassing how stupid alot of the fanbase can be at times

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Forget for a minute that Dmoney said anything. Let's just look at the scenario.

Ny Carr is a former top 100 and prized recruit from last years class. He received rave reviews by everyone from the time he arrived at Miami and even throughout the season. Of course all of that was based on what was taking place at practices.

Fast forward just a few months, that's all, a few months and now a young man, who has been at UM all of 1 year, who was being praised by everyone, that just turned 19, has plateaued? And that every freshmen receiver who has only been here a handful of months are already better than him?

Is it possible that maybe Carr wasn't as good as it was being stated to begin with?

Is it possible that Carr actually hasn't plateaued, but Miami is just moving on due to them wanting to allocate those funds elsewhere?

Is it possible that Carr himself wanted to just leave because of his own personal reasons?

And to the point of us hearing more hype about other young players at his position, is it likely all of the freshmen are already better than Carr?

OK, let me ask a few questions too.

Is it possible that fans misunderstand that expectations for players are different as a true freshman, and that the expectations grow each year?

Is it possible that the things for which Carr was initially praised, such as learning the playbook and succeeding in very limited reps and packages, are merely the first step(s) in a multi-step process of growth and development?

Is it possible that injuries and missed playing time can begin to blunt the advantages that a player once had, such as speed and cutting ability?

Is it possible that a player can lose self-motivation over his setbacks, such as injuries and lack of playing time, and simply not perform as well as he once performed?

All of those questions have NOTHING to do with "hype" or "over-hype". And nothing to do with NIL money.

It's possible for two things to be true at the same time. One, that Ny Carr has tremendous talent and can be a good WR. And the other being, at the current time, he is not performing to his potential and others are performing better than him.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Yeah. People are so out of their mind with eval % expectations. Bro 25% success rate on evals is actually solid lol. With 85 roster spots teams were pretty much always adding 25-30 new players yearly (30-35% new yearly). We are about to be at 105 roster spots and players have 5yrs of eligibility basically. So if that same % stayed for 105 roster spots we are going to be bringing in like 32-37 new additions yearly.


But Realistically there are like 35-40 players max that actually see important reps (not including ST) on game days. So if we bring in about 35 new players yearly, and only about 35-40 actually see meaningful reps on any given GameDay, and they have 4-5 yrs eligibility... A 25% hit rate is like exactly what you need lol.

The actual reality is you want to be like 90% hit rate with portal additions, and closer to 30% or better hit rate with HS additions... But that means no matter how you look at it you should expect far more misses than hits. Even in the NFL draft it's not even about % hit rate, they just hope to get like 3 starters out of the draft yearly.... That's 32 teams hoping to get 3 starters out of 257 picks = 37%... And we know over half the league doesn't accomplish that goal lol

"Missed evals and/or poor evals" - @Angry Ibis

 

[DTP]

"Missed evals and/or poor evals" - @Angry Ibis

I’m not stupid enough to think we never miss an eval. I’m also not stupid enough to believe that we’re the only one who does. Especially considering Ny Carr was originally committed to Georgia.

 

[STG]

OK, let me ask a few questions too.

Is it possible that fans misunderstand that expectations for players are different as a true freshman, and that the expectations grow each year?

Is it possible that the things for which Carr was initially praised, such as learning the playbook and succeeding in very limited reps and packages, are merely the first step(s) in a multi-step process of growth and development?

Is it possible that injuries and missed playing time can begin to blunt the advantages that a player once had, such as speed and cutting ability?

Is it possible that a player can lose self-motivation over his setbacks, such as injury and lack of playing time, and simply not perform as well as he once performed?

All of those questions have NOTHING to do with "hype" or "over-hype". And nothing to do with NIL money.

It's possible for two things to be true at the same time. One, that Ny Carr has tremendous talent and can be a good WR. And the other being, at the current time, he is not performing to his potential and others are performing better than him.

Yup, all could be true. However, what I will not buy is that somehow a 19 year old, that has only been here 1 year, who just a few months ago was being raved about, has now plateaued in a few short months.

 

[ST26]

Forget for a minute that Dmoney said anything. Let's just look at the scenario.

Ny Carr is a former top 100 and prized recruit from last years class. He received rave reviews by everyone from the time he arrived at Miami and even throughout the season. Of course all of that was based on what was taking place at practices.

Fast forward just a few months, that's all, a few months and now a young man, who has been at UM all of 1 year, who was being praised by everyone, that just turned 19, has plateaued? And that every freshmen receiver who has only been here a handful of months are already better than him?

Is it possible that maybe Carr wasn't as good as it was being stated to begin with?

Is it possible that Carr actually hasn't plateaued, but Miami is just moving on due to them wanting to allocate those funds elsewhere?

Is it possible that Carr himself wanted to just leave because of his own personal reasons?

And to the point of us hearing more hype about other young players at his position, is it likely all of the freshmen are already better than Carr?

Again, you act like Carr has been the talk of the town since he's been here lol. He's gotten nowhere near the amount of hype that Trader, Toney and Moore have even gotten. Carr got some good reviews here and there, I'll give you that. Maybe I'm just missing the rave reviews on him, so feel free to point me to where this was said

Carr is not a bad player by any means, and I think if he stuck it out another year he definitely would have had an impact in 2026. I think his departure boils down to mixture of Carr wanting to see significant playing time this year, and the staff wanting to bring in more experience.

I think our fans are so used to being mediocre, that we forgot what having good depth is like. Players in "back-up" roles are allowed to get some praise and make plays in practice lol

 

[Hurracanes]

Forget for a minute that Dmoney said anything. Let's just look at the scenario.

Ny Carr is a former top 100 and prized recruit from last years class. He received rave reviews by everyone from the time he arrived at Miami and even throughout the season. Of course all of that was based on what was taking place at practices.

Fast forward just a few months, that's all, a few months and now a young man, who has been at UM all of 1 year, who was being praised by everyone, that just turned 19, has plateaued? And that every freshmen receiver who has only been here a handful of months are already better than him?

Is it possible that maybe Carr wasn't as good as it was being stated to begin with?

Is it possible that Carr actually hasn't plateaued, but Miami is just moving on due to them wanting to allocate those funds elsewhere?

Is it possible that Carr himself wanted to just leave because of his own personal reasons?

And to the point of us hearing more hype about other young players at his position, is it likely all of the freshmen are already better than Carr?

I also think Carr’s NIL was a big one, and when a true freshman shows up and surpasses you immediately then it’s difficult to justify keeping him around at that price. Personally, I would have preferred Ray Ray to go than Carr but he is more expensive. Suckful situation.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Yup, all could be true. However, what I will not buy is that somehow a 19 year old, that has only been here 1 year, who just a few months ago was being raved about, has plateaued.

I hear you, and I basically agree. In fact, per my comments, I think that the injuries/lack of playing time have "slowed down" Ny, but I don't think he has "plateaued".

Personally, I wish he had come back for another year. I think he was good enough and that Miami has enough of a need (which could conceivably grow if anyone ahead of him is injured) that it was worthwhile.

It's my understanding this was more of a choice on his part to pursue playing time elsewhere. But some posters are spinning things out to be bigger than they are.

I understand what you are saying about sports reporting, generally. I think this issue is bigger than sports too. In "olden times", we understood the difference between the factual reporting of news events, and the commentary (and even spin) that commentators chose to put on those news events.

I think it's fair for @DMoney to report what the coaches say. If he didn't, Ferman would, and someone would ccpy-paste it here anyhow. However, if a person such as @DMoney does not come out and say "I agree with what the coaches are saying", then some of the posters on this board need to become more adept at figuring out what the writers say AND DON'T SAY.

To use a hilarious comparison, I specifically remember a round-table of F$U writers, before the season, telling us how amazing and talented the 2024 F$U team was. They didn't say "because the coaches said so". They fully endorsed that the 2024 F$U football team was one of the most talented ever, based upon what THEY THE WRITERS had observed. And then they all tried to make excuses for what they said once the team went 2-10.

I don't think that is what is happening here. I guess it's possible that @DMoney could occasionally say "hey, the coaches are full of **** here", but I just don't see that much on any website.

In conclusion, I'm just at a loss for why some of our fans seem to be so upset. I don't know what they "believed in" and I can't understand why they didn't see the signs. We offered John Mateer approximately what we offered Carson Beck. BEFORE the bowl game.

You have some great observations and points. I will NEVER tell you to "share what you know". If you do, great. Otherwise, those are your observations, do with them what you will. But some of our fans need to open up their eyes and stop being angry over coach-speak. It's never going away, and it's the same at every school.

 

[Calinative]

Yup, all could be true. However, what I will not buy is that somehow a 19 year old, that has only been here 1 year, who just a few months ago was being raved about, has now plateaued in a few short months.

Are you looking at that from a relative standpoint or absolute standpoint?

Relative to the rest of his peers who are all realistically competing for like 5 actual spots that will see most PT, he could have "plateaued" or just not improved as much to not be passed up, which FOR CARR can make transferring out the preferred option ..

That why I'm saying we have Jojo and Daniels we expect to be top 2. We fully expect/hope to make a top WR addition. That's 3. 2 spots left that we need guys to step up and earn. I guess you have the inside info, so where did Carr stack up against Toney and Moore? Was he surpassing them, equal, or falling behind in the order?

**** idk how much NIL he's getting but you can also make the case that if he isn't clear above them, then he either needs a pay cut or mutual parting of ways, unless you're very confident he's gonna improve over summer to take that next step in his development.

Like the reason we aren't seeing Chance portal out is he likely isn't making near the same money or expects to this early like Carr does. I haven't heard anything positive (or negative really) about Chance....basically I think this was Carr deciding to leave for better opportunities, not us pushing him out.

 

[Peruche]

Good and accurate points, but there also new front-loaded deals being made all over the country before the cap gets approved.

@DMoney Thought you said that a cap on players pay wasn’t gonna fly due to the Supreme Court ruling on kids profiting off their NIL.

Hate to see the SEC take over college football again with capping out a players pay then throwing a couple hundred thousand in non-taxable income under the table to seal the deal.

Signed,

Peruche

 

[STG]

I also think Carr’s NIL was a big one, and when a true freshman shows up and surpasses you immediately then it’s difficult to justify keeping him around at that price. Personally, I would have preferred Ray Ray to go than Carr but he is more expensive. Suckful situation.

Yes sir. That's why I posed that specifically as a question regarding the funds possibly being wanting to be allocated elsewhere.

And I couldn't agree more, I would much rather have figured out a way to keep Ny and move on from others.

 

[Warrior808]

I also think Carr’s NIL was a big one, and when a true freshman shows up and surpasses you immediately then it’s difficult to justify keeping him around at that price. Personally, I would have preferred Ray Ray to go than Carr but he is more expensive. Suckful situation.

Its a sliding scale. The higher your NIL, the higher the performance expectation and the shorter the timeframe to get there.

If one guy is let go and another stays it doesn't necessary mean the guy that stayed is a better player or even that the guy who left wont eventually be good. It means one of them had better overall value vs his NIL.

 

[Calinative]

I also think Carr’s NIL was a big one, and when a true freshman shows up and surpasses you immediately then it’s difficult to justify keeping him around at that price. Personally, I would have preferred Ray Ray to go than Carr but he is more expensive. Suckful situation.

I agree. Now honestly we NEED 2 WRs. We have 7 WRs on the roster, and I don't trust Ray Ray at all.

Legit Fitzgerald needs to be moved to WR ASAP....

 

[BoxingRobes]

If you sign for the kind of money a high four star WR like Ny Carr received and you're not at that value-for-money and you continue to slide down the depth chart, you are going to be offered a paycut and the writing is on the wall for playing time...its cut season...players just cut themselves now.

We need to go grab a WR in the portal. I am sure Ny Carr's NIL allotment will go a decent way toward a good contributor for 2025.

 

[DMoney]

@DMoney Thought you said that a cap on players pay wasn’t gonna fly due to the Supreme Court ruling on kids profiting off their NIL.

Hate to see the SEC take over college football again with capping out a players pay then throwing a couple hundred thousand in non-taxable income under the table to seal the deal.

Signed,

Peruche

It won’t fly long term but it will be in place while it’s challenged. The NCAA wants to buy time until Congress gives them an exemption to violate antitrust law.

 

[sedlst11]

Yes sir. That's why I posed that specifically as a question regarding the funds possibly being wanting to be allocated elsewhere.

And I couldn't agree more, I would much rather have figured out a way to keep Ny and move on from others.

I think this is a consensus amongst the board. Is there a chance he comes back at all?

 

[STG]

I hear you, and I basically agree. In fact, per my comments, I think that the injuries/lack of playing time have "slowed down" Ny, but I don't think he has "plateaued".

Personally, I wish he had come back for another year. I think he was good enough and that Miami has enough of a need (which could conceivably grow if anyone ahead of him is injured) that it was worthwhile.

It's my understanding this was more of a choice on his part to pursue playing time elsewhere. But some posters are spinning things out to be bigger than they are.

I understand what you are saying about sports reporting, generally. I think this issue is bigger than sports too. In "olden times", we understood the difference between the factual reporting of news events, and the commentary (and even spin) that commentators chose to put on those news events.

I think it's fair for @DMoney to report what the coaches say. If he didn't, Ferman would, and someone would ccpy-paste it here anyhow. However, if a person such as @DMoney does not come out and say "I agree with what the coaches are saying", then some of the posters on this board need to become more adept at figuring out what the writers say AND DON'T SAY.

To use a hilarious comparison, I specifically remember a round-table of F$U writers, before the season, telling us how amazing and talented the 2024 F$U team was. They didn't say "because the coaches said so". They fully endorsed that the 2024 F$U football team was one of the most talented ever, based upon what THEY THE WRITERS had observed. And then they all tried to make excuses for what they said once the team went 2-10.

I don't think that is what is happening here. I guess it's possible that @DMoney could occasionally say "hey, the coaches are full of **** here", but I just don't see that much on any website.

In conclusion, I'm just at a loss for why some of our fans seem to be so upset. I don't know what they "believed in" and I can't understand why they didn't see the signs. We offered John Mateer approximately what we offered Carson Beck. BEFORE the bowl game.

You have some great observations and points. I will NEVER tell you to "share what you know". If you do, great. Otherwise, those are your observations, do with them what you will. But some of our fans need to open up their eyes and stop being angry over coach-speak. It's never going away, and it's the same at every school.

I'm pretty much on the same page here. Again, we are all fans, you, me, Dmoney, everyone here. We all love this program. Some of us are privy to receive a little more info than others. Sometimes I wish I didn't cause there are things I hear that I don't like.

With that being said, my biggest thing which I think is easily seen by what I write is just that I wish the reporting had some more balance. It can really lead to the fans being mislead and ultimatley let down.

I think it's healthy to say hey guys, don't be surprised if our LB room is the weakness of our D this year unless we make some moves in the portal. You don't have to say the room is pure trash, you can report on things and prepare the fans and let them know what's up.

There are also times where I feel it may be warranted to just call something out for how bad it is, simply because there is no way to mask it and eventually it will rear its ugly head. No need to try and cover everything up.

 

[STG]

Are you looking at that from a relative standpoint or absolute standpoint?

Relative to the rest of his peers who are all realistically competing for like 5 actual spots that will see most PT, he could have "plateaued" or just not improved as much to not be passed up, which FOR CARR can make transferring out the preferred option ..

That why I'm saying we have Jojo and Daniels we expect to be top 2. We fully expect/hope to make a top WR addition. That's 3. 2 spots left that we need guys to step up and earn. I guess you have the inside info, so where did Carr stack up against Toney and Moore? Was he surpassing them, equal, or falling behind in the order?

**** idk how much NIL he's getting but you can also make the case that if he isn't clear above them, then he either needs a pay cut or mutual parting of ways, unless you're very confident he's gonna improve over summer to take that next step in his development.

Like the reason we aren't seeing Chance portal out is he likely isn't making near the same money or expects to this early like Carr does. I haven't heard anything positive (or negative really) about Chance....basically I think this was Carr deciding to leave for better opportunities, not us pushing him out.

I am saying that in no way do I buy/believe that Ny Carr has reached his full potential. When you say plateau, that is how I perceive that. Forget about anyone else, I am talking specifically on Ny the football player.