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On Judd Anderson

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L A M P said:
Wouldn’t be the worst mindset for Mario to have with some of the high dollar SoFla kids (if we ever start winning). Let the other schools feed them, teach them, pay them.. then bring them home.

Jeremiah SmifF I’m looking at you.
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Yeap, exactly.
This is akin to revisiting certain prospects who went Juco or even prep school. Kind of like draft-and-follow in MLB.
This is what this evolving to in many instances, imo.
 
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TriStarCane said:
Then you better hit in the portal. You’re playing QB Russian Roulette. What if there isn’t a quality starter in the portal? Or we don’t win out. We were dangerously close to running with JB, Emory , and Poff this year. What if there was no Cam Ward? The good schools do both. LSU took Jayden Daniels and Walker Howard the same year. Howard transferred and Daniels wins the heisman. So what do they do? They took another 4* QB this year and got the transfer from Vandy. That’s just one example. If we aren’t playing in both arenas we are always going to be behind on the room IMO
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You consider issues with depending on the portal, but our issues have been with the QB's we've recruited out of HS.

We were dangerously close to running with JB, Emory
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Yes we were. We were dangerously close to having to run with the QB's we recruited from HS. We had to use the portal for Poff and Ward because the other "arena" that is HS QB recruiting hasn't been the answer for us. And to Brown and Emory we've now added Anderson. A pretty underwhelming trio if the BCS playoffs and NC's are the goal.

Relying on the portal is what has (hopefully) saved us at the QB position. The Russian Roulette analogy moreso attaches to our recruiting of HS QB's.
 
get the point D$ is making.. but when you’ve been as bad as we’ve been at QB for the last 20 years.. QB should be a high priority via HS and Portal if your Miami.

You gotta spend to get the best.. projects for us just ain’t worth it… unless you have a supreme QB coach to coach em up.. which I’m not sure Dawson is that
 
DMoney said:
Then look at the other side of the equation: all of those players quickly became available to everyone else, with more film available.
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¿Que Dijo? Lol.

-Austin Mack recruited by and committed to DeBoer, transferred to Bama w/ DeBoer (Zero College Film Available)

-Malachi Nelson film was the Spring Game which was awful, he now attends Boise St, a G5.

-Donte Moore committed to UO & Lanning, decommitted b/c he didn’t want to sit a year, & committed to UCLA. Struggled in Chip’s system, transferred back to the OG school he committed to, this time willing to sit & learn

-Julian Sayin committed to Bama & Saban, Saban retired. (Zero college film available)

-Aiden Chiles committed to OrSU & Jonathan Smith, transferred to MSU & Jonathan Smith

-Eli Holstein (see Julian Sayin)

-Desmond Williams committed to UA & Jedd Fisch, crystal balled to followed Jedd to UW (Zero college film available)

D, I f’s w/ u, but this was a poor example used to once again justify this Judd chit. Not even sure why Ivins threw in Rashada, but that’s a different story.
 
Rellyrell said:
¿Que Dijo? Lol.

-Austin Mack recruited by and committed to DeBoer, transferred to Bama w/ DeBoer (Zero College Film Available)

-Malachi Nelson film was the Spring Game which was awful, he now attends Boise St, a G5.

-Donte Moore committed to UO & Lanning, decommitted b/c he didn’t want to sit a year, & committed to UCLA. Struggled in Chip’s system, transferred back to the OG school he committed to, this time willing to sit & learn

-Julian Sayin committed to Bama & Saban, Saban retired. (Zero college film available)

-Aiden Chiles committed to OrSU & Jonathan Smith, transferred to MSU & Jonathan Smith

-Eli Holstein (see Julian Sayin)

-Desmond Williams committed to UA & Jedd Fisch, crystal balled to followed Jedd to UW (Zero college film available)

D, I f’s w/ u, but this was a poor example used to once again justify this Judd chit. Not even sure why Ivins threw in Rashada, but that’s a different story.
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Exactly, the bring in a transfer part is fine. It's the take developmental projects that don't provide any competition part that is gross.
 
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Rellyrell said:
¿Que Dijo? Lol.

-Austin Mack recruited by and committed to DeBoer, transferred to Bama w/ DeBoer (Zero College Film Available)

-Malachi Nelson film was the Spring Game which was awful, he now attends Boise St, a G5.

-Donte Moore committed to UO & Lanning, decommitted b/c he didn’t want to sit a year, & committed to UCLA. Struggled in Chip’s system, transferred back to the OG school he committed to, this time willing to sit & learn

-Julian Sayin committed to Bama & Saban, Saban retired. (Zero college film available)

-Aiden Chiles committed to OrSU & Jonathan Smith, transferred to MSU & Jonathan Smith

-Eli Holstein (see Julian Sayin)

-Desmond Williams committed to UA & Jedd Fisch, crystal balled to followed Jedd to UW (Zero college film available)

D, I f’s w/ u, but this was a poor example used to once again justify this Judd chit. Not even sure why Ivins threw in Rashada, but that’s a different story.
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The point is that these guys are giving no value to the team that signs them. If we wanted Moore or Sayin, we got another crack at them in record time. It has become increasingly rare for a Top 10 QB to sign with a school and actually produce for that school.

This isn’t me defending Mario. He likes big names and was a driving force in the Rashada recruitment, for example.

This is just common sense based on evaluation of the changing landscape. The overwhelming majority of the top QBs in college and pro are either Portal kids or athletic three stars. So that’s who we should be targeting, with more money spent on the former.
 
DMoney said:
The point is that these guys are giving no value to the team that signs them. If we wanted Moore or Sayin, we got another crack at them in record time. It has become increasingly rare for a Top 10 QB to sign with a school and actually produce for that school.

This isn’t me defending Mario. He likes big names and was a driving force in the Rashada recruitment, for example.

This is just common sense based on evaluation of the changing landscape. The overwhelming majority of the top QBs in college and pro are either Portal kids or athletic three stars. So that’s who we should be targeting, with more money spent on the former.
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This is a horrible & disingenuous point. These guys left b/c the guys that recruited them left, except Nelson & Moore.

I have no idea why u would use THESE examples as a case study, lol.
 
Rellyrell said:
¿Que Dijo? Lol.

-Austin Mack recruited by and committed to DeBoer, transferred to Bama w/ DeBoer (Zero College Film Available)

-Malachi Nelson film was the Spring Game which was awful, he now attends Boise St, a G5.

-Donte Moore committed to UO & Lanning, decommitted b/c he didn’t want to sit a year, & committed to UCLA. Struggled in Chip’s system, transferred back to the OG school he committed to, this time willing to sit & learn

-Julian Sayin committed to Bama & Saban, Saban retired. (Zero college film available)

-Aiden Chiles committed to OrSU & Jonathan Smith, transferred to MSU & Jonathan Smith

-Eli Holstein (see Julian Sayin)

-Desmond Williams committed to UA & Jedd Fisch, crystal balled to followed Jedd to UW (Zero college film available)

D, I f’s w/ u, but this was a poor example used to once again justify this Judd chit. Not even sure why Ivins threw in Rashada, but that’s a different story.
Click to expand...
Lin Manuel Miranda Love GIF by Tony Awards
 
Rellyrell said:
¿Que Dijo? Lol.

-Austin Mack recruited by and committed to DeBoer, transferred to Bama w/ DeBoer (Zero College Film Available)

-Malachi Nelson film was the Spring Game which was awful, he now attends Boise St, a G5.

-Donte Moore committed to UO & Lanning, decommitted b/c he didn’t want to sit a year, & committed to UCLA. Struggled in Chip’s system, transferred back to the OG school he committed to, this time willing to sit & learn

-Julian Sayin committed to Bama & Saban, Saban retired. (Zero college film available)

-Aiden Chiles committed to OrSU & Jonathan Smith, transferred to MSU & Jonathan Smith

-Eli Holstein (see Julian Sayin)

-Desmond Williams committed to UA & Jedd Fisch, crystal balled to followed Jedd to UW (Zero college film available)

D, I f’s w/ u, but this was a poor example used to once again justify this Judd chit. Not even sure why Ivins threw in Rashada, but that’s a different story.
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But I don't believe many of the aforementioned QB's are expected to play next year and they weren't signed out of the portal with the expectation that they'd have to play. The ones who are expected to play went to bad teams who are desperate for any QB with a whiff of potential.

Whereas there is film on the QB's that good programs are signing and who they actually expect to play and complete for a starting job.

QB's signed out of the portal who are expected to either start or are expected to compete for a starting position:

Ward - UM: lots of film exists
Howard - OSU: lots of film exists
Leonard - ND: lots of film exists
Gabriel - OU: lots of film exists
Finn - Baylor: lots of film exists
McCord - SU: ditto
Rogers - UW to ?: ditto
DJ U - FSU: ditto
TVD - Wisc: ditto
McCall - NC St: ditto
and others

And no one has more personal experience with Austin Mack's play at QB than DeBoer. So while fans and the recruiting sites don't have much game film on Mack, his new HC at Bama has seen his play and knows him better than any other coach in the country.

My takeaway from all this:

There are two distinct cohorts of portal QB's. QB's for whom plenty of film exists, and QB's who haven't played and for whom no film exists.

The recruiting of each cohort of QB's mirror this fact. Good programs who have a realistic chance to compete for Conference Championships and in some cases BCS playoffs only fish of the the pond stocked with QB's for whom plenty of films exists. And there are a bunch of these QB's as listed above.

The QB's that you listed, and for whom no film exists are recruited and signed by programs who cannot get a good QB in most years, and so they're willing to roll the dice based oh HS performance and recruiting rankings.

We're (hopefully lol) still part of the first cohort. We (and other good programs) recruit portal QB's who have plenty of tape. I therefore don't have the same concern and criticism of the portal QB world that you do.
 
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Rellyrell said:
This is a horrible & disingenuous point. These guys left b/c the guys that recruited them left, except Nelson & Moore.

I have no idea why u would use THESE examples as a case study, lol.
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Since you think the evidence from ‘23 and ‘24 is distinguishable, let’s do an easy one: the ‘21 and ‘22 Top Ten QBs.

2021 Top 10

1. Transferred
2. Transferred
3. Transferred
4. Drake Maye
5. Transferred
6. JJ McCarthy
7. Transferred
8. Transferred
9. Transferred
10. Transferred

2022 Top 10

1. Drew Allar
2. Cade Klubnick
3. Connor Weigman
4. Ty Simpson (backup)
5. Devin Brown (backup)
6. Transferred
7. Gunnar Stockton (backup)
8. Transferred
9. Transferred
10. Transferred

The Portal has changed the game at this position. We can adapt or we can play a new game using old rules.
 
Rellyrell said:
This is a horrible & disingenuous point. These guys left b/c the guys that recruited them left, except Nelson & Moore.

I have no idea why u would use THESE examples as a case study, lol.
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...so Except 2 of the 5 stars, they all left for coaches... Okay, well you just said 2 5stars left very quickly at the cost of likely millions while providing zero value. How often did that happen this quickly before the Portal? So That alone is a great example imo. **** do we all of a sudden not expect coaches to leave every year? Is this only a bad example because this was a perfect storm year, and we shouldn't expect it to happen often? What if just their OC leaves? That's not going to also lead to QBs dipping? cause OCs leave programs all the time. Btw it doesn't have to be us having the coaching changes. Other coaching changes creates a buttefly effeect at Qb.

The point is the top Qbs are expensive, it is extremely easy for them to leave, and at any point another team can poach them from the bench while you just wasted hella money. I think what we are doing with Nickell is the exact right playbook to use. I mean right now the kid is a 3star and not so different than judd or emory. Thats exactly the type we should be recruiting - guys with a lot of potential and that they're confident can be developed. Get them committed early, lock them up and avoid a major bidding war. Develop them on the cheap and go for top shelf portal guys as needed.

I think it is cheaper to sign a 5star from last class sitting on the bench that it is to sign a 5star in the current class. For instance if next offseason Air Noland left, I'd bet he'd be cheaper to acquire, meanwhile all he did was sit on the bench collecting a check. But the guy with the same rating as him in the 2025 class probably ends up more expensive...
 
Guess the question is do you get a QB that has played in college and performed ? Or go after a young hot shot from high-school.

You have to get the high-school kid at a discount and develop him. If it fails you can always go the portal.

TVD was actually pretty good until he wasn’t. Signed and developed. I’ve never seen someone play so well then drop off the earth.

Any idea what the ‘25 kid we have is asking for?
 
PalyCane said:
But I don't believe many of the aforementioned QB's are expected to play next year and they weren't signed out of the portal with the expectation that they'd have to play. The ones who are expected to play went to bad teams who are desperate for any QB with a whiff of potential.

Whereas there is film on the QB's that good programs are signing and who they actually expect to play and complete for a starting job.

QB's signed out of the portal who are expected to either start or are expected to compete for a starting position:

Ward - UM: lots of film exists
Howard - OSU: lots of film exists
Leonard - ND: lots of film exists
Gabriel - OU: lots of film exists
Finn - Baylor: lots of film exists
McCord - SU: ditto
Rogers - UW to ?: ditto
DJ U - FSU: ditto
TVD - Wisc: ditto
McCall - NC St: ditto
and others

And no one has more personal experience with Austin Mack's play at QB than DeBoer. So while fans and the recruiting sites don't have much game film on Mack, his new HC at Bama has seen his play and knows him better than any other coach in the country.

My takeaway from all this:

There are two distinct cohorts of portal QB's. QB's for whom plenty of film exists, and QB's who haven't played and for whom no film exists.

The recruiting of each cohort of QB's mirror this fact. Good programs who have a realistic chance to compete for Conference Championships and in some cases BCS playoffs only fish of the the pond stocked with QB's for whom plenty of films exists. And there are a bunch of these QB's as listed above.

The QB's that you listed, and for whom no film exists are recruited and signed by programs who cannot get a good QB in most years, and so they're willing to roll the dice based oh HS performance and recruiting rankings.

We're (hopefully lol) still part of the first cohort. We (and other good programs) recruit portal QB's who have plenty of tape. I therefore don't have the same concern and criticism of the portal QB world that you do.
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I’m seriously loss by all of this, & I’m not tryna be a dyck but what r u talking about? U’re way overthinking this & injecting thoughts & ideas that I’m not remotely stating. I said the examples used were poor regarding THESE blue chip Qb transferring adding zero value to those teams, b/c their coaches left, That’s it.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
...so Except 2 of the 5 stars, they all left for coaches... Okay, well you just said 2 5stars left very quickly at the cost of likely millions while providing zero value. How often did that happen this quickly before the Portal? So That alone is a great example imo. **** do we all of a sudden not expect coaches to leave every year? Is this only a bad example because this was a perfect storm year, and we shouldn't expect it to happen often? What if just their OC leaves? That's not going to also lead to QBs dipping? cause OCs leave programs all the time.

The point is the top Qbs are expensive, it is extremely easy for them to leave, and at any point another team can poach them from the bench while you just wasted hella money. I think what we are doing with Nickell is the exact right playbook to use. I mean right now the kid is a 3star and not so different than judd or emory. Thats exactly the type we should be recruiting - guys with a lot of potential and that they're confident can be developed. Get them committed early, lock them up and avoid a major bidding war. Develop them on the cheap and go for top shelf portal guys as needed.

I think it is cheaper to sign a 5star from last class sitting on the bench that it is to sign a 5star in the current class. For instance if next offseason Air Noland left, I'd bet he'd be cheaper to acquire, meanwhile all he did was sit on the bench collecting a check. But the guy with the same rating as him in the 2025 class probably ends up more expensive...
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Was Cam cheap?
 
QB will always be a transfer heavy position. More so than ever. It’s the most important position and they touch the ball every play. The most important factor is there are no substitute for not getting reps. Young players at other positions your can rotate them in. It’s not difficult to get guys snaps and keep them happy. QB, how do you keep a back up happy? Essentially show them light at the end of the tunnel. Well, every other school is showing the same. Big name guys probably don’t want to hear that. Developmental guys can understand that.

@DMoney is spot on.
 
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Rellyrell said:
Rellyrell said:
I’m seriously loss by all of this, & I’m not tryna be a dyck but what r u talking about? U’re way overthinking this & injecting thoughts & ideas that I’m not remotely stating. I said the examples used were poor regarding THESE blue chip Qb transferring adding zero value to those teams, b/c their coaches left, That’s it.
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I’m seriously loss by all of this, & I’m not tryna be a dyck but what r u talking about? U’re way overthinking this & injecting thoughts & ideas that I’m not remotely stating. I said the examples used were poor regarding THESE blue chip Qb transferring adding zero value to those teams, b/c their coaches left, That’s it.
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Now I'm confused. D$ posted that portal QB's are better bets these days because you can recruit guys who have film. "...all of those players quickly became available to everyone else, with more film available."

You responded to his post with list guys for whom there is no film and used that list and the fact those guys don't have film as a criticism of D$'s central point.

I responded that there a certainly a bunch of guys who don't have film, but there's also a bunch of guys who do. And the latter is the more relevant to UM and other good schools, while the former group of no-film QB's (who are the QB's on you described in your post) are irrelevant to UM and other good programs and therefore are irrelevant to the point D$ is making.

Whatever our confusion, I posit that D$ is correct and UM and other good schools can (a) save money by not overpaying for HS QB's who might turn out to not be very good, or will likely transfer, and (b) effectively fish out of the portal QB pond because the QB's we'd recruit out of the portal have film and on-field performance to evaluate. Do we agree on this? If so, I'm good and apologize for any confusion.
 
DMoney said:
Since you think the evidence from ‘23 and ‘24 is distinguishable, let’s do an easy one: the ‘21 and ‘22 Top Ten QBs.

2021 Top 10

1. Transferred
2. Transferred
3. Transferred
4. Drake Maye
5. Transferred
6. JJ McCarthy
7. Transferred
8. Transferred
9. Transferred
10. Transferred

2022 Top 10

1. Drew Allar
2. Cade Klubnick
3. Connor Weigman
4. Ty Simpson (backup)
5. Devin Brown (backup)
6. Transferred
7. Gunnar Stockton (backup)
8. Transferred
9. Transferred
10. Transferred

The Portal has changed the game at this position. We can adapt or we can play a new game using old rules.
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2021:
1. OSU - Stacked HS Blue Chip Room
2. Left to go w/ his coach at USC
3. Bust
4. Drake Maye didn’t transfer
5. Transferred after being a back up for 3 straight yrs behind a 2x Nat’l Title QB, & another blue chip HS QB (Beck)
6. JJ McCarthy
7. Dismissed from Tennessee for multiple drug incidents
8. See #1
9. UO - Stacked Blue Chip Room
10. Stayed for 3 yrs & was a bust

2022:
6. LSU - Stacked QB room
8. Didn’t transfer, he’s still at Mizzou
9. Transferred after sitting behind Dillon & the writing was on the wall once 5* Arnold committed. He entered the transfer portal right before signing Day
10. Transferred to UL w/ his coach

Any other examples u wanna give? Have u noticed the common theme? Either A. They’ve transferred b/c of a coaching change or B. They’ve transferred from a team w/ a stacked QB room.

Have there been some bust? Yep; but this whole “let’s get project QBs & wish upon a star” b.s is terrible. The top teams are over recruiting, period, at EVERY position, including QB.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Never said Cam was cheap. I said get "cheap" Qbs with potential out of HS and develop them, and ALSO top Shelf guys - aka expensive - out of Portal When needed.
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Which teams have won going that route, out of curiosity? UGA, where they took the guy who wanted to a Bull Dog so bad, that he was willing to go JUCO, becoming the #6 JUCO QB in the nation?

I’ve already showed this board undeniable evidence of Nat’l Championship teams have, & teams that contend & ya’ll still wanna fight facts. Lol.

Here’s praying that Ward is the 2nd coming of Penix for us.
 
PalyCane said:
Now I'm confused. D$ posted that portal QB's are better bets these days because you can recruit guys who have film. "...all of those players quickly became available to everyone else, with more film available."

You responded to his post with list guys for whom there is no film and used that list and the fact those guys don't have film as a criticism of D$'s central point.

I responded that there a certainly a bunch of guys who don't have film, but there's also a bunch of guys who do. And the latter is the more relevant to UM and other good schools, while the former group of no-film QB's (who are the QB's on you described in your post) are irrelevant to UM and other good programs and therefore are irrelevant to the point D$ is making.

Whatever our confusion, I posit that D$ is correct and UM and other good schools can (a) save money by not overpaying for HS QB's who might turn out to not be very good, or will likely transfer, and (b) effectively fish out of the portal QB pond because the QB's we'd recruit out of the portal have film and on-field performance to evaluate. Do we agree on this? If so, I'm good and apologize for any confusion.
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I responded to the examples he used in the tweet. Lol.
 
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