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BoxingRobes said:
I like CEH for a few reasons:

Excellent pass catcher from a pro system.
He can block. Check out his block reel. For a 5'8" dude, he isn't afraid to square up and take on a defender. This gets him on the field ASAP.
He's got a little over 450 career touches and his style of play is all about making you miss. Not a lot of wear on those tires and you should get a full rookie deal out of him without becoming a dented can.

Good comparison for him is Gio Bernard, Duke Johnson. Thats a long NFL career.
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I don't get it - you're almost always posting about the importance of athleticism, which I agree with.

But on certain players - like CEH, or Mark Walton - you throw that out the window. Why?

You also said Walton would be at minimum Duke Johnson/Gio Bernard. Basically any smaller less athletic RB will always be compared in some combo to Duke/Gio/Freeman/James White on this board - without fail.

And blocking and amount of touched is college doesn't correlate to NFL success at all. Like, not at all.
 
BoxingRobes said:
Goff was still a Top 15 QB in the first half of 2019.
source -- https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-rankings-nfl-quarterback-rankings-following-week-8-2019

However, fell off a bit in the latter half of the year.
source -- https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-quarterbacks-ahead-of-super-bowl-liv

PFF outlines the reason as the decline in play from the Rams OL, not the effectiveness of Todd Gurley.

NextGenStats paint a similar picture...

Completition Percentage Above Expectation / Aggressive Throw Percentage / Time To Throw

2017 -- -3 / 14.3 / 2.93
2018 -- +.6 / 13.2 / 2.95
2019 -- -3.6 / 12.8 / 2.8

Less Aggressive than ever in 2019, career low CPAE, and less time to throw.

PFF ranked the Rams the 31st OL in the league in 2019 --
www.pff.com

Ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines following the 2019 regular season | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

PFF's Ben Linsey provides the offensive line rankings following the 2019 NFL regular season.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

I'm not a fan of Goff, but to credit his success with Todd Gurley isn't really correct.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of his success was from the running game and all the short intermediate throws in Mcvays o, but it seems like the defenses have caught on to Mcvay. At least a little bit.
 
bshaw28 said:
I don't get it - you're almost always posting about the importance of athleticism, which I agree with.

But on certain players - like CEH, or Mark Walton - you throw that out the window. Why?

You also said Walton would be at minimum Duke Johnson/Gio Bernard. Basically any smaller less athletic RB will always be compared in some combo to Duke/Gio/Freeman/James White on this board - without fail.

And blocking and amount of touched is college doesn't correlate to NFL success at all. Like, not at all.
Click to expand...

Mark Walton eventually became a starter in the league, man. He fvcked it up...but it didn't discredit the analysis. The focus of that discussion was that SoFla RBs outperform draft spot...we were discussing players like Walton and Sony Michel offering a starting RB later in the draft over drafting Saquan Barkley in the Top 5. I'll never backdown from that take...I don't agree with taking a RB anywhere near the Top 5. And the Giants still f'n stink. They passed on Lamar Jackson (MVP), Quinton Nelson (future Hall of Famer) among others. The Giants legitimately could have drafted Lamar Jackson and Nick Chubb if they really wanted a RB that bad. Instead, they ended up with Saquan Barkley and Daniel Jones. That is what losing teams do.

Running back athleticism just does not show a correlation to success (or failure for that matter), man. Its a nice way to find some late round guys...Mostert, Breida, Jones from the Packers...but running backs in the NFL succeed all over the athletic map. As long as you're not a non-NFL athlete, you're not out of the mix. Every other position has some sort correlation, but running back just doesn't.

Lack of blocking ability or willingness to block keeps guys off the field early in their career, especially when we are talking about these RBs in the 2-5 round range.

Fieldgulls have been ahead of the curve (mostly because of Pete Carroll's forward thinking with athletic measurements and a more analytics approach to the game...but they outline my thoughts on RBs in the modern NFL.

www.fieldgulls.com

What you need to know about passing vs rushing

Running backs are a weapon in the NFL. This is indisputable. And not just as receivers out of the backfield either, this is not a mind game I’m playing with you where I flip the script in a second...
www.fieldgulls.com www.fieldgulls.com

They also touch upon the lack of importance of Todd Gurley for those that really want to discuss him further. tl;dr RBs are just cogs in the machine...doesn't matter who you are. Sorry, it just is what it is.
 
DMoney said:
I agree. Taylor is still being underrated nationally. This guy is the most productive back in the draft, the most explosive athlete, he’s big, physical and durable.

Backs like Taylor and Dillon might not make you miss, but they don’t need to. I didn’t see Tennessee, Baltimore or San Francisco’s backs making people miss and they ran all over everyone.
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Taylor has sneaky wiggle but you don't have to make people miss laterally when you have the mental processing, speed and acceleration to find the right hole and blow past the pursuit angles. A lot of people think Taylor's speed isn't evident on film and I just don't get it - kid's a freak. He's definitely an elite rushing talent but the question is what kind of pass game impact he'll have and ball security.

As far as backs like Henry/Gurley...those big track runners are only effective when they're in a good scheme with a strong run blocking unit. If they have to change directions behind the line of scrimmage they're neutralized. In 2018 Dion Lewis was more effective than Henry but in 2019 the Titans rebuilt their team around Henry to let him shine.
 
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BoxingRobes said:
Mark Walton eventually became a starter in the league, man. He fvcked it up...but it didn't discredit the analysis. The focus of that discussion was that SoFla RBs outperform draft spot...we were discussing players like Walton and Sony Michel offering a starting RB later in the draft over drafting Saquan Barkley in the Top 5. I'll never backdown from that take...I don't agree with taking a RB anywhere near the Top 5. And the Giants still f'n stink. They passed on Lamar Jackson (MVP), Quinton Nelson (future Hall of Famer) among others. The Giants legitimately could have drafted Lamar Jackson and Nick Chubb if they really wanted a RB that bad. Instead, they ended up with Saquan Barkley and Daniel Jones. That is what losing teams do.

Running back athleticism just does not show a correlation to success (or failure for that matter), man. Its a nice way to find some late round guys...Mostert, Breida, Jones from the Packers...but running backs in the NFL succeed all over the athletic map. As long as you're not a non-NFL athlete, you're not out of the mix. Every other position has some sort correlation, but running back just doesn't.

Lack of blocking ability or willingness to block keeps guys off the field early in their career, especially when we are talking about these RBs in the 2-5 round range.

Fieldgulls have been ahead of the curve (mostly because of Pete Carroll's forward thinking with athletic measurements and a more analytics approach to the game...but they outline my thoughts on RBs in the modern NFL.

www.fieldgulls.com

What you need to know about passing vs rushing

Running backs are a weapon in the NFL. This is indisputable. And not just as receivers out of the backfield either, this is not a mind game I’m playing with you where I flip the script in a second...
www.fieldgulls.com www.fieldgulls.com

They also touch upon the lack of importance of Todd Gurley for those that really want to discuss him further. tl;dr RBs are just cogs in the machine...doesn't matter who you are. Sorry, it just is what it is.
Click to expand...

Athleticism absolutely matters for a RB - https://relativeathleticscores.com/...m-correlate-to-nfl-success-for-running-backs/

Mileage doesn't matter at all for a RB - https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mileage-matters-the-value-of-rb-wear-tear

Mileage and Blocking are just talking head things to say about RB's leading up to the draft. After the draft they're never mentioned again, because they don't matter.

The Fieldgulls article points out that RB's are less important than they used to be. No one is disputing that. But a really good RB can can still have a really big effect on the things an offense can do and how effective it can be.

And it's interesting a Seahawks blog and Pete Carroll are your source for devaluing RB's when the Seahawks the last 8 years feeding their RB's as much as any team in the league.

As for Mark Walton.....oh boy...

The 2019 Dolphins had the worst rushing offense since the 2006 Lions. So, of the last 416 teams to play in the NFL, the 2019 Dolphins would have the 416th best rushing offense.

Now - Mark Walton rushing for 66, 35, 32 & 29 yds in his 4 starts had a lot to do with the Dolphins having the worst rushing offense in 13 years. It's definitely something to be proud of. But calling him an NFL starter is a real stretch. Unless you consider Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird NFL starters too?

Saying South Florida RB's flat out perform their draft spots is just a subjective statement. It's only applied to RB's people like. So, Mark Walton will outperform being drafted in the 4th because he's from South Florida? So then, Jordan Scarlett will also outperform being drafted in the 5th? Matt Dayes will outperform being drafted in the 7th?

What is the criteria for when a RB will and won't outperform their draft slot just because they're from South Florida?
 
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Glad Artie found a home here in Chicago. Hopefully he and Graham shut these idiot Bears fans up.
 
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bshaw28 said:
Athleticism absolutely matters for a RB - https://relativeathleticscores.com/...m-correlate-to-nfl-success-for-running-backs/

Mileage doesn't matter at all for a RB - https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mileage-matters-the-value-of-rb-wear-tear

Mileage and Blocking are just talking head things to say about RB's leading up to the draft. After the draft they're never mentioned again, because they don't matter.

The Fieldgulls article points out that RB's are less important than they used to be. No one is disputing that. But a really good RB can can still have a really big effect on the things an offense can do and how effective it can be.

And it's interesting a Seahawks blog and Pete Carroll are your source for devaluing RB's when the Seahawks the last 8 years feeding their RB's as much as any team in the league.

As for Mark Walton.....oh boy...

The 2019 Dolphins had the worst rushing offense since the 2006 Lions. So, of the last 416 teams to play in the NFL, the 2019 Dolphins would have the 416th best rushing offense.

Now - Mark Walton rushing for 66, 35, 32 & 29 yds in his 4 starts had a lot to do with the Dolphins having the worst rushing offense in 13 years. It's definitely something to be proud of. But calling him an NFL starter is a real stretch. Unless you consider Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird NFL starters too?

Saying South Florida RB's flat out perform their draft spots is just a subjective statement. It's only applied to RB's people like. So, Mark Walton will outperform being drafted in the 4th because he's from South Florida? So then, Jordan Scarlett will also outperform being drafted in the 5th? Matt Dayes will outperform being drafted in the 7th?

What is the criteria for when a RB will and won't outperform their draft slot just because they're from South Florida?
Click to expand...

I'll go through this bit by bit...

Athleticism and RBs. RAS is fine...they use data points from a completely different eras of football and it skews the analysis dramatically. I prefer sigma scores and composite percentiles in comparison to the position group.

Just a sample of the Top 10 rushing leaders from last year...

Henry - 82nd Percentile
Chubb - 83rd Percentile
McCAC - 72nd Percentile
Elliott - 45th Percentile
Carson - 66th Percentile
Fournette - 11th Percentile
Jacobs - 19th Percentile
Mixon - 70th Percentile
Cook - 6th Percentile
Mack - 61st Percentile

You've got a very even mix of players and if you really wanted to extend this by year or even throughout the league, you'd find similar...2 RBs above the 75th percentile (upper echelon athleticism at their position). 4 RBs from 74-50th percentile (above average NFL athleticism for their position). 1 RB from the 49th to 25th percentile (below average NFL athleticism for their position). 3 RBs 24th percentile and lower which is really below average NFL athleticism. Thats a pretty even distribution at the top and you'd see a similar distribution in most years throughout. Athleticism is never a bad thing, but in this era of NFL football, its nice but not required. As I said before, its a nice indicator for like Day 3 contributors. Also, the nature of the position...a guy like Henry really didn't become valuable until Year 4 in the league. Fournette slogs to 1000 yard seasons, but isn't special. In summary, RAS is cool, but a bit outdated because it incorporates data from many eras of the NFL and they don't translate to today's game. Thats why I say athleticism doesn't matter...it doesn't correlate...there are contributors throughout the entire spectrum. 40 yard dash times - versus complete composite score might be more effective, but the nature of RB in today's NFL I think its pointless to put too much emphasis on it.

--

As for mileage. Its not that it matters for success...but it matters how much time you get from them in the NFL.

Just from that list of players with a ton of carries, most of these guys end up as cans before their first contract is up.

David Johnson, one good season in 2016. Injury history.
Kareem Hunt, one good season in 2017. Life happens and he's on his second team and I think we can agree his value is nearing dented can status.
Zeke Elliott - I love Zeke and is like the only RB on this list that would support your argument that mileage doesn't matter.
Todd Gurley - the definition of a dented can before what would be the end of his first contract. Two really good seasons.
Saquan Barkley - Already seeing decline in Year 2.
LeVeon Bell - Now averages 3 yards per carry in his 6th professional season
Melvin Gordon - he's a JAG, brother.
Nick Chubb - Already a big injury, and while I think he's great right now, would you give him a second contract?
Alex Collins - garbage.
James Conner - nothing special
Jay Ajayi - was toast by his third year.
McCaffrey - he's still very good, but hasn't reached a second contract yet. We'll see.

What's my point? While mileage doesn't correlate to poor performance, if you're spending say...a R1 pick or premium capital on a RB, odds are good they don't perform well enough through their rookie deal to truly earn a second deal and these guys turn into dented cans very quickly. From that list from the article you provided, there are like 4 non-dented cans on that list (Zeke, Saquan, Chubb, McCaffrey).

---

As for the rest, that is for another thread. We can discuss later, but Mark Walton becoming a starter was a point myself and several others made. He's a knucklehead, but he became a starter in the league. The point was draft a RB in the Top 5 or draft one much later...I won't budge off the idea of drafting a RB in the Top 5...its a fireable offense and would take a RB much later. The fact that both SoFla RBs in question ended up starting, even though they are lesser players, kind of makes the point for me. The Giants stink...so do the Dolphins, but the Patriots until 2 days ago, did not stink.
 
BoxingRobes said:
I'll go through this bit by bit...

Athleticism and RBs. RAS is fine...they use data points from a completely different eras of football and it skews the analysis dramatically. I prefer sigma scores and composite percentiles in comparison to the position group.

Just a sample of the Top 10 rushing leaders from last year...

Henry - 82nd Percentile
Chubb - 83rd Percentile
McCAC - 72nd Percentile
Elliott - 45th Percentile
Carson - 66th Percentile
Fournette - 11th Percentile
Jacobs - 19th Percentile
Mixon - 70th Percentile
Cook - 6th Percentile
Mack - 61st Percentile

You've got a very even mix of players and if you really wanted to extend this by year or even throughout the league, you'd find similar...2 RBs above the 75th percentile (upper echelon athleticism at their position). 4 RBs from 74-50th percentile (above average NFL athleticism for their position). 1 RB from the 49th to 25th percentile (below average NFL athleticism for their position). 3 RBs 24th percentile and lower which is really below average NFL athleticism. Thats a pretty even distribution at the top and you'd see a similar distribution in most years throughout. Athleticism is never a bad thing, but in this era of NFL football, its nice but not required. As I said before, its a nice indicator for like Day 3 contributors. Also, the nature of the position...a guy like Henry really didn't become valuable until Year 4 in the league. Fournette slogs to 1000 yard seasons, but isn't special. In summary, RAS is cool, but a bit outdated because it incorporates data from many eras of the NFL and they don't translate to today's game. Thats why I say athleticism doesn't matter...it doesn't correlate...there are contributors throughout the entire spectrum. 40 yard dash times - versus complete composite score might be more effective, but the nature of RB in today's NFL I think its pointless to put too much emphasis on it.

--

As for mileage. Its not that it matters for success...but it matters how much time you get from them in the NFL.

Just from that list of players with a ton of carries, most of these guys end up as cans before their first contract is up.

David Johnson, one good season in 2016. Injury history.
Kareem Hunt, one good season in 2017. Life happens and he's on his second team and I think we can agree his value is nearing dented can status.
Zeke Elliott - I love Zeke and is like the only RB on this list that would support your argument that mileage doesn't matter.
Todd Gurley - the definition of a dented can before what would be the end of his first contract. Two really good seasons.
Saquan Barkley - Already seeing decline in Year 2.
LeVeon Bell - Now averages 3 yards per carry in his 6th professional season
Melvin Gordon - he's a JAG, brother.
Nick Chubb - Already a big injury, and while I think he's great right now, would you give him a second contract?
Alex Collins - garbage.
James Conner - nothing special
Jay Ajayi - was toast by his third year.
McCaffrey - he's still very good, but hasn't reached a second contract yet. We'll see.

What's my point? While mileage doesn't correlate to poor performance, if you're spending say...a R1 pick or premium capital on a RB, odds are good they don't perform well enough through their rookie deal to truly earn a second deal and these guys turn into dented cans very quickly. From that list from the article you provided, there are like 4 non-dented cans on that list (Zeke, Saquan, Chubb, McCaffrey).

---

As for the rest, that is for another thread. We can discuss later, but Mark Walton becoming a starter was a point myself and several others made. He's a knucklehead, but he became a starter in the league. The point was draft a RB in the Top 5 or draft one much later...I won't budge off the idea of drafting a RB in the Top 5...its a fireable offense and would take a RB much later. The fact that both SoFla RBs in question ended up starting, even though they are lesser players, kind of makes the point for me. The Giants stink...so do the Dolphins, but the Patriots until 2 days ago, did not stink.
Click to expand...

Believe me - if I'm a GM, I'm hyping up what your saying as correct. I hope everyone believes it. Then I'm fleecing everyone.

As the market is showing this off season - the 5 yr / $40 million deal is going away for RB's. Short term deals are what the market is now for a RB. Henry, Gurley, Gordon, Drake, Howard - they're all working on 1 or 2 yr deals now. The risk is mitigated. And the loaded 2017 class is on the way. If you think long term deals are still the only option to pay a RB, then I'm buying the RB stock you're selling for pennies on the dollar.

If you think CMac is burnt out at 23 - I'll happily fleece ya.
If you think Barkley is showing decline at age 22 - I'll happily fleece ya.

If you think RB's are burnt out at 23 because RB's like David Johnson, Leveon Bell, DeMarco Murray showed signs of wear and tear at age 27 - then I'm not doing anything to change your mind. I'm also cutting your internet connection so you don't look up the years they put up from 24-26 and hope you just forget about RB's like Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy.

You're already done with Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, or Joe Mixon? I'll take them.

If you think there's no difference between Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage, or CMac is replaceable with CEH - I'm feasting. If you think Mark Walton became a starting RB last year, then there's about 80 starting RB's in the NFL right now. If you don't think there'ss much difference between any of them - I'll happily help you sort them out.

Here's a list of RB's under 214 lbs. The ones on the left run 4.4's. The ones on the right run 4.6's. If you're looking at Six Sigma, and think this list doesn't really help to predict NFL success - I'm gonna tell you to keep doing what you're doing my man!


1584831153135.png
 
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brock said:
Good for Artie. Hope he gets back to form, he was good his first year with the Steelers and most of his second year with them.


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As both a Bears & Canes fan, I approve of this. Both have the opportunities to be starters and learn under Pagano. Both have the opportunity to cash in this one yr joint into a multiple yr joint either w The Bears or another team. Hopefully their familiarity & chemistry from college translate to the field.

Bush can take over for Ha Ha, and Burns for Prince. The pass rush should help them both.
 
Liberty City El said:
Yup.

The position has been devalued overall, with the league being so pass heavy a RB's best trait may actually be their receiving abilities as opposed to just being a pure workhouse style back, Derrick Henry being the exception.

With RB being such an easy position to replace it makes no sense to break the bank on a RB, especially with most of the highest paid RB's usually having a down year almost always after they get paid top dollar. Zeek Elliot had a good season & was still in the top 5 in rushing after he got paid but his YPC went down & yards overall went down, not necessarily all his fault though.

But Gurley & LeVeon Bell complelty fell off the map after getting the big contract, I'm always happy when guys get the money they deserve so it's no slight on them, but if I'm a GM of a team unless I got a surefire HOF'er I'm just drafting a RB in rounds 2-5 anytime I need a RB, that money goes to a more valuable spot like CB, OT or Pass rusher.

The 49ers were a team that made it to the SB running it down people's throat with a RB stable of Mostert, Breida & Coleman & none of them broke a 1,000yds. RB by committee is the smart way to go now, you get more bang for your buck & you keep guys healthy with less wear & tear on their legs.
Click to expand...

Gurley fell off because his knee is cooked. Bell fell off because he just isn’t that good and didn’t have that Steelers Oline to run behind and AB on the outside
 
gogeta4 said:
Also got him in a division with avg wr's right now....he should be ok. He aint in that AFC.
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Yeah only the Lions have multiple quality WRs in that division, but if Stafford is injured and Driskel is throwing them the ball it doesn't really matter.

As for this RB mileage argument, a few years ago fantasy research was done that found no correlation between prior workload and injuries. Instead it's projected workload that's a strong indicator for injuries. It makes sense because you assume guys are healthy and fresh going into a season but excess workloads increase exposure to injury risk and cause wear and tear, compensation issues and such. Obviously backs with arthritis like Gurley or Ajayi are a different story but when Ajayi was drafted it was assumed that he wouldn't last past his rookie deal.
 
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