New NHC Cone, Tropical Depression 16 forms (NATE)

[duke4heisman]

5 am advisory has it hitting the Louisiana/Mississippi border at 2am Sunday and the cone is west of Tallahassee.

 

[tcgrad1014]

GFS FTW. #MAGA

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

Euro's operational run shifted west overnight. Intensity wise, it could actually be weaker than yesterday predictions because of all the land interaction, and the fact that it still hasn't been able to get its **** together and become an actual tropical storm (to put it bluntly), a weaker system also moves a lot quicker.

Let's continue to monitor throughout the day, but definitely encouraging overnight trends.

 

[2FNFST4U]

Leave the game at 3:30. Minimal damage winds will drop quickly and it is a fast moving storm.

 

[tcgrad1014]

If Tally isn't in the cone, the only hurricanes they need to be concerned with is the Cat 5 originating in Coral Gables and moving north to north west through the state.

 

[BiltmoreCANE]

Euro's operational run shifted west overnight. Intensity wise, it could actually be weaker than yesterday predictions because of all the land interaction, and the fact that it still hasn't been able to get its **** together and become an actual tropical storm (to put it bluntly), a weaker system also moves a lot quicker.

Let's continue to monitor throughout the day, but definitely encouraging overnight trends.

As of now score a rare victory this year for the GFS, as the Euro def. caved towards it last night (both location & intensity wise). The 6Z GFS this am shows very little development of Nate. Again we need to look at trends but the last 15 hrs are encouraging.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

Euro's operational run shifted west overnight. Intensity wise, it could actually be weaker than yesterday predictions because of all the land interaction, and the fact that it still hasn't been able to get its **** together and become an actual tropical storm (to put it bluntly), a weaker system also moves a lot quicker.

Let's continue to monitor throughout the day, but definitely encouraging overnight trends.

As of now score a rare victory this year for the GFS, as the Euro def. caved towards it last night (both location & intensity wise). The 6Z GFS this am shows very little development of Nate. Again we need to look at trends but the last 15 hrs are encouraging.

It'll be interesting to see how the system looks after passing through Nicaragua and Honduras. Hurricane Hunters can't fly over land so unfortunately we won't be able to get those measurements till it re-joins sea. As of now though, the system that's been passing below south florida has been surprisingly more organized than Nate.

Starting to feel more confident about this game, though I wouldn't rule out a possible earlier time change. Hopefully the board's nervousness yesterday proves unfounded, which is why I've said all week it's too early to assume anything. We should start getting the picture cleared this afternoon.

 

[CanesFan23]

Here's the most recent projected wind probabilities.

View attachment 50993

So if I'm reading this right.... there's less than a 40% chance of tropical winds anywhere.... so that means there is no storm in the gulf.

This image, from the same source, has it as a hurricane just off the coast.

View attachment 51011

Uhh no. Look at the key on the bottom... hurricanes are in pink or red. I don't see any pink or red on the map. So... no hurricane.

Pink and red are for hurricane watches and warnings. They don't show pink or red on the map until the storm is closer to landfall. The big "H" on the map indicates the storm is at hurricane force winds.

 

[rsa coral gables]

a change to noon would be the best option, given the timing of winds. the graphic below is helpful to understand timing

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

a change to noon would be the best option, given the timing of winds. the graphic below is helpful to understand timing

View attachment 51120

I believe I touched on this on the previous page, but this graph is much better for understanding timing. Again, this has and will change.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

Latest ensemble models, most keep it away from Tallahassee, still early, things will change, but encouraging trends!

 

[tcgrad1014]

Tally with 12% chance of tropical storm force winds, 0% chance of hurricane force winds. Game on.

 

[The Real Kirk Lazarus]

Even if nate doesnt hit tally a major hurricane is gonna roll thru on saturday and whoop that ***

 

[Crystal Ball]

Even if nate doesnt hit tally a major hurricane is gonna roll thru on saturday and whoop that ***

How many times can we possibly use this joke in one thread?

 

[Classic]

Told ya it would slow down and move west.

 

[d--1]

I'm waiting to see if it continues west and makes a more direct impact on the Yucatan than currently projected, which might slow its roll some.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Even if nate doesnt hit tally a major hurricane is gonna roll thru on saturday and whoop that ***

How many times can we possibly use this joke in one thread?

As many times as it takes to balance out the amateur meteorologist arguments?

 

[IndayArtHauz]

Even if nate doesnt hit tally a major hurricane is gonna roll thru on saturday and whoop that ***

How many times can we possibly use this joke in one thread?

Agree. So many of these it feels like a storm.

Regardless FSU is gonna feel some gale force winds on the on the field.

 

[Sebastian_29]

The real hurricane hits Saturday at 3:30!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[thisismyusername]

The real hurricane hits Saturday at 3:30!!!!!!!!!!!!

(or noon)!