MEGA New Miami Adidas Ultraboost🔥 - The Shoe and Nike/Adidas Thread.

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

& still has the most market share & profitability by a country mile, & that includes combining all brands (Adidas, UA, Puma, On, Hoka, & Skechers combined) comparatively.

And has severely underperformed the market for the last 3 years. If you would’ve invested in Nike about 3 years ago, you’d have about 50% less money.

 

[Rellyrell]

And has severely underperformed the market for the last 3 years. If you would’ve invested in Nike about 3 years ago, you’d have about 50% less money.

U’re conflating two different things. They underperformed b/c

1. They overcorrected the market during the pandemic, which eventually caught up w them under their previous CEO. What worked for Nike when the world was shut down severally backfired in their face when the world opened back up, namely, choking off long time brick & mortar partners to go digitally direct.

2. That domino effect opened ways for brands like Puma, NB, & Adidas to fulfill a demand of retail space they didn’t have before which ate into Nike sales.

3. Nike also was not keeping up w trends. They went away from endorsing or making athletes the face of the brand, settling for influencers or hype beast to be their driving point. The problem w hype beast is they r hyped today & yawned on tomorrow.

4. The other trend they didn’t keep up w/ was during the pandemic, ppl started walking again, being more outdoor. Companies like NB, Hoka, & On fulfilled this lane and opened up new options.

So yes, it was a complete crescendo that led to Nike losing its market share by a couple of % points, while also having inventory that didn’t sell due to certain parts of the world deciding to support their own vs. other brands. (See China)

However, Ur point was “Nike needs to get it **** together”, correct? They’ve already corrected & will continue to correct this. Their shares were already rising b/c of these corrections b4 the tariffs hit which put a new strained relationship between them & China/Taiwan (their 2nd & 3rd largest markets).

I’m very much aware of how my portfolio looked 3 yrs ago vs. today & I also know the business plan & how that business plan was going to take approx. 1 yr for it to see its full fruition. It’s also a great opportunity to invest in them today while it’s relatively low, b/c every expert in the industry know w/ their Nike market share, profitability, & business plan, their shares will balloon in approx 12-14 months.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

U’re conflating two different things. They underperformed b/c

1. They overcorrected the market during the pandemic, which eventually caught up w them under their previous CEO. What worked for Nike when the world was shut down severally backfired in their face when the world opened back up, namely, choking off long time brick & mortar partners to go digitally direct.

2. That domino effect opened ways for brands like Puma, NB, & Adidas to fulfill a demand of retail space they didn’t have before which ate into Nike sales.

3. Nike also was not keeping up w trends. They went away from endorsing or making athletes the face of the brand, settling for influencers or hype beast to be their driving point. The problem w hype beast is they r hyped today & yawned on tomorrow.

4. The other trend they didn’t keep up w/ was during the pandemic, ppl started walking again, being more outdoor. Companies like NB, Hoka, & On fulfilled this lane and opened up new options.

So yes, it was a complete crescendo that led to Nike losing its market share by a couple of % points, while also having inventory that didn’t sell due to certain parts of the world deciding to support their own vs. other brands. (See China)

However, Ur point was “Nike needs to get it **** together”, correct? They’ve already corrected & will continue to correct this. Their shares were already rising b/c of these corrections b4 the tariffs hit which put a new strained relationship between them & China/Taiwan (their 2nd & 3rd largest markets).

I’m very much aware of how my portfolio looked 3 yrs ago vs. today & I also know the business plan & how that business plan was going to take approx. 1 yr for it to see its full fruition. It’s also a great opportunity to invest in them today while it’s relatively low, b/c every expert in the industry know w/ their Nike market share, profitability, & business plan, their shares will balloon in approx 12-14 months.

So yes, they severely underperformed just like I said.

Can you explain to me what you think I was conflating? My only point was they were severely underperforming the market. That’s indisputable. It’s actually been going on for more than five years.

Whether they recover, and whether their performance plan going forward provides a successful recovery, remains to be seen. All I can say is you can go back 10 years and they have severely underperformed - that does not bode well. I think what probably investors would like to see is some major changes into how they do business going forward.

I would not be so confident to say that now may be a good time to invest in Nike. But that’s just me. At some point, they will bottom and of course, then that would be a good time for somebody to dip their toes in the Nike water, but timing is one of the hardest things to do in stock trading.

 

[Rellyrell]

So yes, they severely underperformed just like I said.

Can you explain to me what you think I was conflating? My only point was they were severely underperforming the market. That’s indisputable. It’s actually been going on for more than five years.

Whether they recover, and whether their performance plan going forward provides a successful recovery, remains to be seen. All I can say is you can go back 10 years and they have severely underperformed - that does not bode well. I think what probably investors would like to see is some major changes into how they do business going forward.

I would not be so confident to say that now may be a good time to invest in Nike. But that’s just me. At some point, they will bottom and of course, then that would be a good time for somebody to dip their toes in the Nike water, but timing is one of the hardest things to do in stock trading.

 

[Dwinstitles]

If Adidas offers a financial figure that is significantly better than what Nike is willing to reup for, then you take the better deal. Again, this is BUSINESS. In a world where revenue matters more than ever, you can't afford to short yourself, just so some dumbass fan, who most likely buys 1-2 shirts per year(AT MOST) can run their mouth. I wonder if Nike isn't willing to match, because they are starting to realize that paying fair market value isn't feasible for their huge stable of schools. Keep in mind, Nike was able to build this stable on the back of undervaluing properties for decades, because there was limited competition for schools. Adidas has shown that they are at least willing to compete for schools, and with their worldwide reach, they have the money to do so.

Either way, Miami will have an opportunity to push for more, provided the on field product continues to improve.

you are right though you have to take the better deal even if I like Nike, thats business

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Bro, that stock chart has nothing to do with tariffs.

The last couple of months it does.

1. Election
2. Tariffs announced against China, Mexico, and Canada
3. "Liberation Day"

 

[TheOriginalCane]

And has severely underperformed the market for the last 3 years. If you would’ve invested in Nike about 3 years ago, you’d have about 50% less money.

This whole "let's look at the long horizon" stuff ignores the concept that mistakes have been made previously, and corrective actions have been taken. You can't just say "Company X has to get its **** together", and then when they do get their **** together and OTHER factors come into play, respond with "yeah, but the last 3 years". Your data is not wrong.

Nobody denies where Nike was 3 years ago and where they are today. That's why you change CEOs. And strategies.

As for the difference between stock price and overall desirability of the product itself, I don't think there are a bunch of 18 year olds running around picking their favorite sneaker brands based on stock price. I don't care if Nike becomes a penny stock, if they still produce great shoes and clothing and are the dominant brand in the industry, it's worth doing a deal with them.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

The last couple of months it does.

1. Election
2. Tariffs announced against China, Mexico, and Canada
3. "Liberation Day"


View attachment 326722

Nike has been a horrific investment for the last five years. That’s indisputable. That has nothing to do with tariffs. And if you want to talk about the last three months and tariffs, the market has recovered for the most part, Nike hasn’t. I’m not trying to bash Nike. I’m just stating facts. The overall underlying problems with Nike’s stock performance has little to do with tariffs - it has been going on for years. We shall see if the current direction pulls them out of the hole.

As far as whether the school does a deal with them or not, that all depends on whether the decision makers think it’s the best thing for the school or not, and I’m not the one that determines that.

I honestly don’t care who they go with. I just want them to make the best possible deal for the school not for the sneaker brand or the hype beasts - which I’m sure they will.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Nike has been a horrific investment for the last five years. That’s indisputable. That has nothing to do with tariffs. And if you want to talk about the last three months and tariffs, the market has recovered for the most part, Nike hasn’t. I’m not trying to bash Nike. I’m just stating facts. The overall underlying problems with Nike’s stock performance has little to do with tariffs - it has been going on for years. We shall see if the current direction pulls them out of the hole.

As far as whether the school does a deal with them or not, that all depends on whether the decision makers think it’s the best thing for the school or not, and I’m not the one that determines that.

I honestly don’t care who they go with. I just want them to make the best possible deal for the school not for the sneaker brand or the hype beasts - which I’m sure they will.

Horrific investment for the last 5 years?

In June 2020, Nike stock was as low as 93. In 2021, it was as high as 177. And that is POST-COVID. That's not horrific or disputable.

There was a substantial decline in 2022. Things got a bit better in 2023 and declined again in 2024 (CEO replaced in October 2024).

However, the stock price has only gone below 70 since tariffs were promised.

And anyone who talks about "the market" recovering when talking about tariffs over the past 3 months is ignoring the fact that the news on tariffs has been chaotic and has impacted different industries and market sectors differently. An apparel/shoe company that manufactures largely in China and Vietnam is being impacted far more than other industries in "the market".

"That has nothing to do with tariffs". Whatever. As I made clear from the outset, the changes that Nike has made SINCE OCTOBER 2024 would have had far more upward impact on its stock price BUT FOR TARIFFS. Nobody is relitigating the mistakes of the prior 2.5 years, from early 2022 to late 2024. But to act like Nike hadn't had a big run-up prior to 2022, and to ignore the macroeconomic events of the last 6 months is just selective stat-quoting.

Buy-and-hold. All this day-trading/stock-price-watching is for the birds.

This is the part of the stock-price graph that corresponds to the "Fanatics Era" rise of online sales of branded team merchandise.

You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both, and there you have...

For comparative purposes, here is adidas stock on "Liberation Day":

And adidas in the Fanatics Era:

 

[Rellyrell]

Horrific investment for the last 5 years?

In June 2020, Nike stock was as low as 93. In 2021, it was as high as 177. And that is POST-COVID. That's not horrific or disputable.

There was a substantial decline in 2022. Things got a bit better in 2023 and declined again in 2024 (CEO replaced in October 2024).

However, the stock price has only gone below 70 since tariffs were promised.

And anyone who talks about "the market" recovering when talking about tariffs over the past 3 months is ignoring the fact that the news on tariffs has been chaotic and has impacted different industries and market sectors differently. An apparel/shoe company that manufactures largely in China and Vietnam is being impacted far more than other industries in "the market".

"That has nothing to do with tariffs". Whatever. As I made clear from the outset, the changes that Nike has made SINCE OCTOBER 2024 would have had far more upward impact on its stock price BUT FOR TARIFFS. Nobody is relitigating the mistakes of the prior 2.5 years, from early 2022 to late 2024. But to act like Nike hadn't had a big run-up prior to 2022, and to ignore the macroeconomic events of the last 6 months is just selective stat-quoting.

Buy-and-hold. All this day-trading/stock-price-watching is for the birds.

This is the part of the stock-price graph that corresponds to the "Fanatics Era" rise of online sales of branded team merchandise.

You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both, and there you have...


View attachment 326733

Is NIKE Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Despite NIKE’s underperformance relative to the broader Dow over the past year, Wall Street analysts remain moderately optimistic about the stock's prospects.

www.barchart.com

NIKE (NKE) Stock Price, News & Analysis $NKE

Should You Buy or Sell NIKE Stock? Get The Latest NKE Stock Analysis, Price Target, Dividend Info, Headlines, and Short Interest at MarketBeat.

www.marketbeat.com

Mind u, all of this info was posted just 4 hrs ago…it’s kinda like, I dunno, I have a crystal ball or something on this matter.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Horrific investment for the last 5 years?

In June 2020, Nike stock was as low as 93. In 2021, it was as high as 177. And that is POST-COVID. That's not horrific or disputable.

There was a substantial decline in 2022. Things got a bit better in 2023 and declined again in 2024 (CEO replaced in October 2024).

However, the stock price has only gone below 70 since tariffs were promised.

And anyone who talks about "the market" recovering when talking about tariffs over the past 3 months is ignoring the fact that the news on tariffs has been chaotic and has impacted different industries and market sectors differently. An apparel/shoe company that manufactures largely in China and Vietnam is being impacted far more than other industries in "the market".

"That has nothing to do with tariffs". Whatever. As I made clear from the outset, the changes that Nike has made SINCE OCTOBER 2024 would have had far more upward impact on its stock price BUT FOR TARIFFS. Nobody is relitigating the mistakes of the prior 2.5 years, from early 2022 to late 2024. But to act like Nike hadn't had a big run-up prior to 2022, and to ignore the macroeconomic events of the last 6 months is just selective stat-quoting.

Buy-and-hold. All this day-trading/stock-price-watching is for the birds.

This is the part of the stock-price graph that corresponds to the "Fanatics Era" rise of online sales of branded team merchandise.

You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both, and there you have...


View attachment 326733


For comparative purposes, here is adidas stock on "Liberation Day":
View attachment 326736

And adidas in the Fanatics Era:
View attachment 326738

You are assuming people buy and sell with perfect timing. It’s been a terrible 5 year buy and hold investment.

Average retail investors buy stocks like Nike to hold, not to trade in and trade out of them.

You’re taking slices of time in the last five years and using that as your basis for saying it’s not a horrible investment. It objectively is.

It ain’t that complicated. Nike is a terrible investment over the five or 3 year period.

$100,000 invested in Nike three years ago, would be worth about $55,000 today. If you would have taken that same money and invested it in just a very simple index fund tied to the SP 500, your hundred thousand dollars would be worth about $145,000. That’s $100,000 difference. You’ll get a similar disparity in Nike stock that would’ve been bought five years ago.

Don’t worry, you don’t have to defend Nike’s honor to me. It’s not a person. It’s a company - like I give a **** about them. Just like I don’t give a **** about Adidas, another company I wouldn’t have invested in, even though they perform better in the market. I’m just looking at Nike from an investment standpoint, which gives you a clue to how the company itself is doing.

 

[Calinative]

Both companies have to deal with a Tariff hit lol, so why would that only be relevant to Nike? Adidas recovered from it better than Nike did from a stock market investing perspective. If you invested at any point after Oct 22nd 2022 basically, Adidas has beeen better.
$10k invested over last:
- 10yr, Adidas=$34.9k, Nike=$13.3k
- 5yr, Adidas=$9.3k, Nike=$6.1k
- 1yr, Adidas=$10.01k, Nike=$6.5k
- ytd, Adidas=$10.2k, Nike=$8.05k

I mean I can see the positives of investing in Nike vs Adidas today. Lower PE, higher dividend, more room to recover from the tariffs. But it's not without it's risk, and it simply HAS performed worse than Adidas. Trying to time the market generally isn't very good idea, so picking random dates where Nike outperformed Adidas isn't all that helpful. Over time Adidas has proven to be a better investment.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

You are assuming people buy and sell with perfect timing. It’s been a terrible 5 year buy and hold investment.

Average retail investors buy stocks like Nike to hold, not to trade in and trade out of them.

You’re taking slices of time in the last five years and using that as your basis for saying it’s not a horrible investment. It objectively is.

It ain’t that complicated. Nike is a terrible investment over the five or 3 year period.

$100,000 invested in Nike three years ago, would be worth about $55,000 today. If you would have taken that same money and invested it in just a very simple index fund tied to the SP 500, your hundred thousand dollars would be worth about $145,000. That’s $100,000 difference. You’ll get a similar disparity in Nike stock that would’ve been bought five years ago.

Don’t worry, you don’t have to defend Nike’s honor to me. It’s not a person. It’s a company - like I give a **** about them. Just like I don’t give a **** about Adidas, another company I wouldn’t have invested in, even though they perform better in the market. I’m just looking at Nike from an investment standpoint, which gives you a clue to how the company itself is doing.

I'm not taking slices of time. You said Nike stock has been a terrible investment for the last 5 years. If you had said 3 years, I wouldn't have anything to say. I'm just pointing out that for 2020 and 2021, they were at the tail-end of a historic run-up, it's not personal.

The key thing is this. I don't dispute the "45% loss of market cap". It's a statistical fact. What I am saying is that Nike hasn't lost 45% of its business. It hasn't lost 45% of its market share. So to use stock price as a proxy for overall execution of a company's business model can be very misleading.

It's not about defending Nike's honor. Nike doesn't need that and I won't do that. I'd say the same thing for any company when someone uses stock price as some kind of judgment on the health of the company, or the financial wherewithal to compete and pay its contracts. I'm just pointing out that the two primary players in the shoe/apparel game are way off their 2021 high stock prices. That's a fact. But we're going to sign with one of them. And that's a fact. So let's MAYBE not try to use stock price as a factor. It's a losing game with either company.

And for the record, here is the 5-year performance for UnderArmour, which is also terrible since 2021. So maybe, JUST MAYBE, 2022-present has been bad for ALL of the sports shoe/apparel companies. Maybe it's not something that "Nike did wrong" (though they clearly just changed CEOs), maybe it has just been a terrible market since 2021 for all of the major players in the industry. Let me know when you find a sports shoe/apparel stock that has been kicking *** during 2022, 2023, and 2024.


UnderArmour 5-year:

adidas 5-year:

Puma 5-year:

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Both companies have to deal with a Tariff hit lol, so why would that only be relevant to Nike? Adidas recovered from it better than Nike did from a stock market investing perspective. If you invested at any point after Oct 22nd 2022 basically, Adidas has beeen better.
$10k invested over last:
- 10yr, Adidas=$34.9k, Nike=$13.3k
- 5yr, Adidas=$9.3k, Nike=$6.1k
- 1yr, Adidas=$10.01k, Nike=$6.5k
- ytd, Adidas=$10.2k, Nike=$8.05k

I mean I can see the positives of investing in Nike vs Adidas today. Lower PE, higher dividend, more room to recover from the tariffs. But it's not without it's risk, and it simply HAS performed worse than Adidas. Trying to time the market generally isn't very good idea, so picking random dates where Nike outperformed Adidas isn't all that helpful. Over time Adidas has proven to be a better investment.

View attachment 326753

I agree with everything you are saying.

Generally speaking, adidas HAS performed better over the 2022-2024 horizon, which is why Nike replaced its CEO.

I also posted the 5-year performance of the stock prices of Puma and UnderArmour. What is shocking is the similarity across all 4 stocks. Fantastic performance and huge run-ups until the end of 2021. Massive downturns in the 2022-2024 time frame.

It's almost as if...it's bigger than a "Nike problem"...and, sure, some competitors might have weathered the 2022-2024 storm better than Nike.

Still...it's pretty striking what has happened in the comparative sports apparel industry. And, no, I'm not talking about Lululemon...

 

[Fatboycane]

What did New Balance stock do today since big game Blake is taking the BC Eagles to them?. Men in their 50's are celebrating all across the commonwealth

 

[CANESCANES]

A USM guy came up to me at the baseball game tonight, and he was talking about how awful Adidas is to them, he works in the Athletic department and said Adidas gives 0 ***** about them, and so many issues

 

[Hurracanes]

A USM guy came up to me at the baseball game tonight, and he was talking about how awful Adidas is to them, he works in the Athletic department and said Adidas gives 0 ***** about them, and so many issues

Not the case with Miami..

 

[CaneInMD]

I might cave and get one of the aeroready shirts. Do they fit pretty true? I’m typically a large in almost every brand but Adidas tends to run slimmer right?
View attachment 326525

Also anyone get the New era baseball hats yet? I do like the way the adidas baseball team hats fit. Just wondering if they felt similar before I get the white/green/orange model.

I have a couple of the Aeroready shirts and yes, they do run slim. A Nike or Under Armour XL was an Aeroready XXL for me. I can't speak to the hats.

 

[Canedude08]

A USM guy came up to me at the baseball game tonight, and he was talking about how awful Adidas is to them, he works in the Athletic department and said Adidas gives 0 ***** about them, and so many issues

Nike wouldn’t give a **** about them either. They are Southern Mississippi, no outfitter will bend over backwards for them. Thats why being a midmajor stinks.

 

[Canedude08]

What did New Balance stock do today since big game Blake is taking the BC Eagles to them?. Men in their 50's are celebrating all across the commonwealth

BC has been with NB before. Once their UA deal went under, that’s who they ended up with. I’m quite sure that happened before Blake got there.