Myth Buster: Talent or Coaching?

OK, hold up, 🛑:

I’m seeing there’s a lot of circular reasoning w/ a dash of cognitive dissonance being posted here.

This examination was meant to highlight that throughout the yrs, based upon data, we’ve had enough talent not to beat some of the upper echelon teams, but the teams that we’ve faced consistently every season. It was to show the “Miami doesn’t have enough talent” argument is a moot point, especially when u consider that programs like TCU, Baylor, and Utah, as examples, have accomplished way more w/ far less talent.

But here’s the crux of trying to use circular reasoning; that chit comes back around to kick u in the ***.

So let’s take one point I’ve seen regarding 247:
“Not only is it an "inexact science," but the rankings are basically what happens when you let librarians into the lab to perform the experiments…” @Cryptical Envelopment

OK, here’s the issue w/ this statement; If u say that it’s an inexact science that’s created by some librarians, then this fan base shouldn’t worry about who Bama, UGA, OSU, etc gets. This fan base shouldn’t concern itself w/ the caliber of blue chips we’ve acquired vs. those aforementioned programs. In fact, this fan base shouldn’t even use that terminology, at all: blue chip. This fan base needs to admit that Bama has elite scouting & recruiting, while we apparently do not, & the only thing we should care about is not the stars attached to players we recruit, and just trust the staff, which means if we have a class full of 3-stars, there shouldn’t be any bytching b/c 247 is full of librarians & we implicitly should trust the guys who wear The U on their shirt.

The other argument:
That Mario has developed under the radar kids:

OK, this goes back to 247; supposedly 247 was wrong in its talent evaluation of ALL of our players, which means instead of all those blue chips we allegedly recruited, we really had a team full of under the radar JAGs. Well, that’s great b/c Mario specializes in developing those types, correct? And b4 anyone reasons, “well, Mario recruited those guys” I say scrrrrrrr…pause.

Mario was only at UO for 5 yrs (2017-21), that means he inherited the draft classes of 2019 & 2020, which included 3-star Justin Herbert. He didn’t remotely recruit him, nor did he recruit Shane Lemieux, Troy Dye, Jake Hanson, Ugo Amadi, Justin Hollins, or Jalen Jelks.

This list of 3 star guys that were recruited to UO b4 Mario taking the job as an Co-OC went 13-12 (2015-2016). By the time he became HC, those guys went 20-18 (2015-2017). B/c he’s a “developer of talent”, he went 9-4 in his 1st yr as a HC w/ that 20-18 roster.

Now let’s circle back to Miami, since now all of a sudden 247 is a site that can’t be trusted; let’s say Mario indeed inherited a roster full of JAGs, that roster still went 28-21 from 2018-21. So how do we go 5-7 if he’s the 3-star/under the radar developer/whisperer?

Oh, I get it; Gatass. OK, cool; now Gatass & TrimbleSteele are both gone. The cancers have been removed, the cancers that caused the 5-7 season. Besides maybe a player here or there, we are supposed to be healthy, which was another excuse used for the 5-7 season. So all things considered, if this team remains healthy, why should I expect anything less than 9 wins since I don’t have to worry about 247, Mario has his guys here, he’s a 3-star whisperer, and the cancers are gone?
The goal of a coach is to win a championship. We have a guy who’s never done it and people on here are claiming he’s better than guys who have actually done it. In no world is that a valid argument.

We post here bc we are die hard fans but I’m supposed to believe we wouldn’t have taken a bunch of bull**** like Jimbo out FSU through to get another ship? Not buying it for a second. Especially bc we’ve been out through that same bull**** for one coastal title in almost 2 decades.
 
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Predicting an early failure may help if it leads to so much public pressure that a HC finally understands be has to adapt or he's getting fired. Do you think Diaz would have hired Lashlee instead of another caveman football OC if the fanbase had stayed quiet after a 6 win season? (still better than Cristobals 1st season btw )

The criticism already worked to some extent with Cristobal - I would have bet money that Cristobal was going to hire another pro style OC to follow Gattis. I'm shocked he didn't hire Arroyo. He obviously should have hired a spread OC from day 1, but hiring Dawson showed Cristobal is at least capable of some level of introspection. Cristobal has nearly evolved from a caveman into a modern human.

Cristobal ran a spread at FIU. Now maybe His thinking changed once He got around Saban, but He hasn't always been a caveman.
 
Only issue I'd take with that assessment (unless you included them and I simply wasn't paying attention)the kids Mario brought in & coached up previous to taking over. Did you include those?
No, for three reasons:

1. I didn’t give Lanning credit for the kids who he coached in 2022 that were drafted in 2023.

2. I believe the poster was asking about blue chip kids Mario recruited & those analytics

3. Ironically, when I was about to include kids Mario inherited that were drafted, none were blue chips.

Point 3 is interesting b/c it’s the 3 stars that’s actually faired pretty well under his leadership.
Perhaps those 3-stars bought into the coaching change more than higher rated players.

However people want to look at it, Mario has proven himself. Three 10 win seasons in 5 years and year 1 was a 9 win season.
 
Look at the numbers and look at who they played with. Kaaya did more with less.

Yes there are a bunch of ****** QB’s in football. There are 10-15 good QB’s in the NFL. It’s why coaches and GM’s get fired every year.
Stop with the Kaaya is better than Bennett. Even loyal Canes fan can’t buy that.
 
Cristobal ran a spread at FIU. Now maybe His thinking changed once He got around Saban, but He hasn't always been a caveman.

Not just this site that is worried Cristobal will stick with a caveman offense despite hiring Dawson.

 
Not just this site that is worried Cristobal will stick with a caveman offense despite hiring Dawson.

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I think everyone is just being a little cautious to make sure that the Kool Aid being served isn’t colon prep again like it was last year
If we win 8 games these boys will be crowning Mario like he's actually done something.

If we don't win 9 or more then sun tanned golden can kick rocks.
 
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As long as it works so what? I guarantee you that Saban & Smart don't take a hands off approach when it comes to their offenses, why should Mario?

Here's an interesting article about the evolution of Bamas offense.


Basically, Saban told Kiffin he wanted to do something different with the offense and then let Kiffin figure it out. And Kiffin had the balls to p iss off Saban and get away with it. He earned a long leash because he had NFL and P5 HC experience. Is Dawson going to have that level of independence? I doubt it.

And the most interesting part to me:

“Fit the scheme to the athlete, not the other way around. That was the biggest lesson learned there. Get out of your ways and get into whatever works for the player.”

We know with 100% certainty that Cristobal did not fit the scheme to the athletes last season. This is indisputable. So if he learned so much from Saban, why did he force the bro-style offense onto the players last season ? (Gattis basically ran the same Joe Moorehead offense that Cristobal had at Oregon, so it's obvious that Cristobal went to his comfort zone). He has been a HC for around a decade, so he doesn't get to use the excuse that a first year coach can use of "learning on the job what works and what doesn't."
 
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