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Miami v. Iowa State - Sweet 16

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We *should* roll them. It's March, so there are no certainties. But I jumped all over Miami -1 when it first dropped last night. It's up to Miami -2.5.

We are an awful matchup for them, they're a good matchup for us.

We will struggle with elite offensive teams who play OK defense. That's the blueprint to beat us, because although we force a lot of turnovers, our defensive efficiency is not good and if we face a team who is truly elite at putting the ball in the basket, we'll struggle to keep up. Iowa State is NOT that team. Their adjusted O ranking is 156th. Their adjusted D ranking is 5th. But good offense beats good defense in basketball. I would much rather this team face a squad ranked 156th in O and 5th in D vs the opposite. Is there a chance they play some lockdown defense on us and turn this into a rock fight? Sure. But I don't really see it. They're 278th in the country in turnovers, we force a ton, and we're the most efficient transition team in America. We'll get some easy baskets based off our defense and ability to force turnovers. We also struggle rebounding the ball, and a team who is excellent in that area can exploit it. Iowa State is 313th in total rebounds.

They don't score a lot of points, they turn it over a lot, and they don't rebound well. They had lost 3 straight headed into the tournament, and in those 3 games they scored 36 (!!!), 68, and 41 points. In the tournament, they've won their 2 games scoring 59 and 54 points. Averaging 52 PPG in their last 5 games. We've scored less than 60 points one time this season. Once in 35 games.

If we push close to 70 points, I'm not sure they can keep up with that. Again, heading to the tournament, this team was 4-7 in their last 11 games. The wins were against TCU by 3 (good win, TCU is a tournament team), Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas State. The 3 worst teams in the Big 12.

I'll be REALLY disappointed if we don't beat this team.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
We *should* roll them. It's March, so there are no certainties. But I jumped all over Miami -1 when it first dropped last night. It's up to Miami -2.5.

We are an awful matchup for them, they're a good matchup for us.

We will struggle with elite offensive teams who play OK defense. That's the blueprint to beat us, because although we force a lot of turnovers, our defensive efficiency is not good and if we face a team who is truly elite at putting the ball in the basket, we'll struggle to keep up. Iowa State is NOT that team. Their adjusted O ranking is 156th. Their adjusted D ranking is 5th. But good offense beats good defense in basketball. I would much rather this team face a squad ranked 156th in O and 5th in D vs the opposite. Is there a chance they play some lockdown defense on us and turn this into a rock fight? Sure. But I don't really see it. They're 278th in the country in turnovers, we force a ton, and we're the most efficient transition team in America. We'll get some easy baskets based off our defense and ability to force turnovers. We also struggle rebounding the ball, and a team who is excellent in that area can exploit it. Iowa State is 313th in total rebounds.

They don't score a lot of points, they turn it over a lot, and they don't rebound well. They had lost 3 straight headed into the tournament, and in those 3 games they scored 36 (!!!), 68, and 41 points. In the tournament, they've won their 2 games scoring 59 and 54 points. Averaging 52 PPG in their last 5 games. We've scored less than 60 points one time this season. Once in 35 games.

If we push close to 70 points, I'm not sure they can keep up with that. Again, heading to the tournament, this team was 4-7 in their last 11 games. The wins were against TCU by 3 (good win, TCU is a tournament team), Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas State. The 3 worst teams in the Big 12.

I'll be REALLY disappointed if we don't beat this team.
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Great breakdown.

I reviewed the second half of their season and was shocked they even got into the tournament. They absolutely withered down the stretch, went 7-11 in conference, and didn’t win a single game in the B12 tourney.

That’s not taking away from what they did at all in this tournament. They got in and they’ve been winning ever since, kudos to their squad. But this is a game where we should have an bigger advantage. Their hope is to muck up our ball movement, slow the pace of play, rarely turn the ball over, then be just efficient enough on offense to win.
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
Great breakdown.

I reviewed the second half of their season and was shocked they even got into the tournament. They absolutely withered down the stretch, went 7-11 in conference, and didn’t win a single game in the B12 tourney.

That’s not taking away from what they did at all in this tournament. They got in and they’ve been winning ever since, kudos to their squad. But this is a game where we should have an bigger advantage. Their hope is to muck up our ball movement, slow the pace of play, rarely turn the ball over, then be just efficient enough on offense to win.
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Correct. They’re Texas Tech with a very slightly worse defense (although still excellent, as Tech is best in the country) and a much worse offense. This is very doable if we continue to take care of the ball as we have been.
 
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I would much rather have played Wisconsin. Iowa St is similar to UVa and USC.

They slow the game down, play tough D, and are efficient in transition. This is a tough matchup for us, no question. I expect a low-scoring, close game. We'll need to shoot better to beat them
 
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TheRichtShow said:
I would much rather have played Wisconsin. Iowa St is similar to UVa and USC.

They slow the game down, play tough D, and are efficient in transition. This is a tough matchup for us, no question. I expect a low-scoring, close game. We'll need to shoot better to beat them
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I wasn't sure who I wanted to win that one. Wisconsin has the much better resume though, they beat a lot of good teams, beat Purdue twice, but the last few games they played did not look very good from what I saw. Relied on Davis and Davison pretty much to do it all. If either was off they seem to struggle. I was happy to see ISU win. Wiscy lost their pg in that game, never really seemed to click after.
 
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TheRichtShow said:
I would much rather have played Wisconsin. Iowa St is similar to UVa and USC.

They slow the game down, play tough D, and are efficient in transition. This is a tough matchup for us, no question. I expect a low-scoring, close game. We'll need to shoot better to beat them
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Wisconsin isn't much faster than Iowa State. Also, they probably don't beat Wisconsin if Chucky Hepburn doesn't get hurt yesterday. Wisconsin was up 3 when he went down, and they never really recovered. They had scored 22 points in the first 15 minutes of the game, until he got hurt. After he left, they scored 27 points in the next 25 minutes. He had started every single game this season and was averaging almost 31 minutes a game as a true point guard. The offense went to total **** once he went out.

I would much rather play Iowa State. Wisconsin is a much better offensive team and they don't turn the ball over much at all. Well, usually, when Hepburn plays.

We'll most likely need to shoot better to have beaten anyone in this round. But Wisconsin most likely doesn't give you the ball as much as Iowa State does, so you probably have to shoot a higher percentage to beat them, because you know we're not getting any offensive rebounds.

Just for the teams you mentioned, here is their pace rating. As you can see, UVA is an outlier compared to the others.

Wisconsin -- 213th
USC -- 230th
Iowa State -- 238th
UVA -- 357th

Iowa State only slightly slower than Wisconsin, and basically the same as USC.
 
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Coming here in piece. Lifelong Cyclone fan.

A quick breakdown of our team. Offensively it's one of the worst teams I can remember watching in the past 20 years at ISU, but we have guys who can get hot and flip that 180 degrees on a given night. Defensively this is the best teams since the Larry Eustachy era in the early 2000's. All of our guards are dogs in man on man pressure defense and as a team they rotate extremely well. All year the offense has been led by IZB, if 2 of the 3 between Hunter, Kalscheur and Grill get going we're one of the toughest teams in the country to beat.

I haven't watched you guys this year but the numbers seem to add up to a run and gun guard heavy offense.

Player breakdowns:
IZB: Most consistent scorer, average by this teams standards on defense but long and will get into passing lanes. Goes to his left at will, struggles going to his right. Best mid range game I can remember of any former ISU player.
Hunter: Absolute dog of a competitor. Turns it over a little to much but nothing crazy. Struggles with his shot, but still capable (7-11 vs LSU). Plays like a 5th year senior as a true freshman.
Kalscheur: Wild card on offense. Either hot or cold as dry ice. Another guard who plays extremely hard on the defensive end.
Kunc: Does the little things and can knock down timely 3's. Hands all over the place on defense and keeps a lot of rebound alive with tips.
Conditt: Plays hard and pays the price for getting out of control a lot. Gets in foul trouble to often but comes up with big blocks.
Grill: White men can't jump? My ***. He has hops, is all over the place on defense and can knock down 3's but not super consistent there.
Jones: Mostly spare minutes for Conditt/Kunc but can make some timely plays on D in the paint.
Enaruna: Another wild card. Probably the least impressive defensive player on the team. Can do some nice things offensively but most nights isn't a big factor.
Jackson: Spots Hunter at PG if there's foul trouble. Really active hands on defense. One of the 3 best 3 point shooters on the team. He could play 15 minutes or 0 depending on the situation.
Walker: Similar to Jackson, spot minutes at PG depending on the matchup. Really long PG who can make some great plays but most of the time won't blow you away.
Boothe: Have to give a shoutout to the walk on. I want a close game but he has an NIL with Mountain Dew that says if he scores in a win they'll dump a truckload on ISUs central campus.

Here's to a good game and whoever wins taking down Kansas if Providence doesn't.
 
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TheRichtShow said:
I would much rather have played Wisconsin. Iowa St is similar to UVa and USC.

They slow the game down, play tough D, and are efficient in transition. This is a tough matchup for us, no question. I expect a low-scoring, close game. We'll need to shoot better to beat them
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Wisconsin without Hepburn I agree. But ISU turns it over a lot. That’s where we win games.
 
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