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Miami Ranked #27

NCCanefan said:
If your point is that at a macro level results don't vary much year to year, that tells us that GA will still be GA and East TX A&M wil still be East TX A&M. I hope no one spent a lot of money for that information.

The relevant question is in 2025, does your power ranking model represent reality. If you have all new players and coordinators, who cares what you did in 2024? If the claim is the power ratings don't really predict rankings and you know that is what people use them for then you are just engaging in deception and trying to fill up some space on your ESPN pages.
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SP+ is doing very well vs the spread so far this year
 
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PalyCane said:
By virtue of how it's constructed the model is worthless in the early part of the season. Evidence being the nonsensical rankings after the first two games this season

The model needs data as to how teams perform against each other after repeated tries. This data does not exist after only two games.

I've long felt that this type of ranking (FPI, Sp+) shouldn't even be published until 8 games into the season.
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If you mindlessly placed bets based on SP+ so far this year, you'd be up.

By definition, it is not worthless.
 
NCCanefan said:
Why would an adult with an IQ over say 80 develop a model that uses
"last year’s analytics on defense still taking up a disproportionate amount of the inputs"? LOL, more than 1/2 the defensive starters are new and we have a new DC but your model relies heavily on last year's inputs. You'd flunk an elementary modelling course.

That espn model is not just simplistic it is just silly. When you look at the output of your model and it is obvious you model needs work, you don't publish the results. You rework it. Their "20,000 simulations" doesn't mean anything when the model is fundamentally flawed. You could run a million.

If you think we are the 27th best team in the country (now all the way up to 22nd) and worse than Nebraska, Indiana and much worse than ND who we beat there's nothing I can tell ya.
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Bc the model beats the spread every year lol including so far this year

It's not perfect. But it's better than basically every human prognosticator.
 
DTP said:
Analytics are great and EVERY coach uses them.

What they don’t use is a metric that takes into account last season’s numbers until midway through the current season.

The reason Miami is ranked highly on offense and low on defense is because a majority of the numbers being factored are from games in 2024 when Miami had a great offense and a terrible defense.

Much like rankings, S+P plus is worthless until mid season.
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You guys have strange definitions of "worthless" lol

SP+ is beating the spread so far this year. That is, by definition, not worthless.

Prior season weights weren't included on a whim. They have predictive value.

I don't think we're the 27th best team in the country. I also don't think we're the 5th best team. That doesn't mean both data points are "worthless"
 
tdubs_truckernutz said:
“this is an unbiased review of the performance”

This was created by an espn writer with no background in stem let alone math or computer science. And it is absolutely biased in the strictly mathematical sense of the term and colloquial sense.
It uses Recent Recruiting early in the season to determine so+. The model incorporates a program's recruiting rankings from the previous few seasons to gauge the overall talent level of the roster. The recruit rankings are entirely subjective and often wrong. Go see DMoney’s post on our ranking vs performance under right and Diaz


I have a masters in applied mathematics from Johns Hopkins and a masters in computer science focusing on artificial intelligence from Stanford.
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Do you have many leather bound books and an apartment that smells.of rich mahogany?
 
ALLoverCANE said:
You guys have strange definitions of "worthless" lol

SP+ is beating the spread so far this year. That is, by definition, not worthless.

Prior season weights weren't included on a whim. They have predictive value.

I don't think we're the 27th best team in the country. I also don't think we're the 5th best team. That doesn't mean both data points are "worthless"
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Take it easy, Bill Connolly. I’m just saying not to put any stock in a ranking system that has Texas, Alabama and Notre Dame ranked ahead of teams that literally just beat them in actual football games.
 
DTP said:
Take it easy, Bill Connolly. I’m just saying not to put any stock in a ranking system that has Texas, Alabama and Notre Dame ranked ahead of teams that literally just beat them in actual football games.
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I know that's what you're saying.

And I'm saying you're wrong lol. Your cherry-picking reveals your misunderstanding of how models work. Teams lose rematches all the time. It's a predictive model, not a resume ranking.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
I know that's what you're saying.

And I'm saying you're wrong lol. Your cherry-picking reveals your misunderstanding of how models work. Teams lose rematches all the time. It's a predictive model, not a resume ranking.
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Did they predict Alabama, Texas and Notre Dame to beat FSU, Ohio State and Miami?
 
ALLoverCANE said:
You guys have strange definitions of "worthless" lol

SP+ is beating the spread so far this year. That is, by definition, not worthless.

Prior season weights weren't included on a whim. They have predictive value.

I don't think we're the 27th best team in the country. I also don't think we're the 5th best team. That doesn't mean both data points are "worthless"
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They have strange definitions of “meaningless” as well




Run Away GIF
 
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mossmadness said:
Connelly’s model actually does account for new coordinators in its projections.
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Ok, so why are the results of the model so skewed vs other projections? 5 of his top 12 aren't in the 12 betting odds favs for the playoffs.

Do you think Miami is the 27th (now 22nd) best team?
 
DTP said:
Did they predict Alabama, Texas and Notre Dame to beat FSU, Ohio State and Miami?
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Not sure.

But it DID predict that Ohio St would beat Oregon in the playoff, despite Ohio St losing at Oregon earlier in the season. In fact, SP+ had Ohio St ahead of Oregon even after losing that game.

Were you making the same argument then?
 
nycane said:
people like Manny Diaz love analytics. football guys like saban, Kirby, Mario, probably Lanning, dont care as much.
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Manny Diaz’s love for ‘analytics’ was not genuine. He might’ve liked the idea of it or the buzzword, but measuring peer cheering is an empty if not nonsensical attempt at ‘analytics.’ Real analytics are about tendencies. You know, like not sending a late blitzer on 3rd and long. People that do stuff like that give analytics a bad name. There is a place for them.
 
NCCanefan said:
Ok, so why are the results of the model so skewed vs other projections? 5 of his top 12 aren't in the 12 betting odds favs for the playoffs.

Do you think Miami is the 27th (now 22nd) best team?
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His rankings don't factor schedule, which is obviously a big factor in making the postseason.
 
I don't understand why he would even include FCS games in his calculations. There's so many different ways to approach those games because they're glorified practices. You could go out and blast a team, you could try and avoid injuries, you could try and work on certain aspects, you can try and get playing time to certain players.

For anybody involved in analytics, there is one rule you must always obey. Context is king. Numbers can tell you 90% of the story or numbers can tell you 10% of the story. The magic bullet metric does not exist.
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
Bc the model beats the spread every year lol including so far this year

It's not perfect. But it's better than basically every human prognosticator.
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One should be able to hit 50% simply by flipping a coin on each game. Here's what I'm seeing.

Sp+ is below 50% picking against the spread ytd. He's underperforming against a coin flip

Am I missing something?

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IndayArtHauz said:
In SP+.

Remember, this is an unbiased review of the performance data of each sector of the game, that’s it.

Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks are number 1. Our defense is holding us back in this regard, ranking 62nd.

The SP+ is not suggesting that we are not a better team than those above us, just that we are not as efficient or “successful” as some others. I think we’d agree this rating aligns with what we’ve seen on the field through two games.

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I had no idea that Paul Finebaum was a Maude here. I’m shocked
 
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