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Miami Ranked #27

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Brad_Wellson said:
Because if you actually watched the games, or looked at the metrics, neither were that impressive.

USF is a good G5 team. They may be the highest ranked G5 champion. But they're not nearly as good as their 2-0 record, just looking at results, would indicate.
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Well, it's hard to see how they could have been LESS impressive than Florida. These rankings clearly don't actually look at the play on the field. There's no world or metric that says FSU has been less impressive (efficient, whatever) than Bama - that's ranked #2.
 
ajkreider said:
There's no world or metric that says FSU has been less impressive (efficient, whatever) than Bama - that's ranked #2.
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It's a tempo-adjusted measure. So if FSU was running tempo (which I think they they were) then a lot of their numbers get adjusted down.

Never mind.

It's two games into the season.
 
Empirical Cane said:
This metric, as ESPN's FPI, matter to CFPO Selection Committee.
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I hope not. We might as well go back to the BCS days. What should matter is results on the field, not some nerd metrics to make certain teams look better.
Hopefully we have a committee with some balls this year that isn’t trying to justify pushing in another blue blood or SEC team.
 
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Brad_Wellson said:
It's a tempo-adjusted measure. So if FSU was running tempo (which I think they they were) then a lot of their numbers get adjusted down.

Never mind.

It's two games into the season.
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That's kind of my point. If it's based on the actual games - I mean, look at the details of their game.

YPP/ Bama 4.7 - FSU 6.1
3rd Down Efficiency/ Bama 6/17 FSU 5/12
4th Down/ Bama 2/5 FSU 2/2

FSU were more efficient by these measures, lost the TO battle, and still won by 2 TDs. Both teams played a scrub that they blew out the next week. The only way Bama gets ranked #2, and FSU isn't even on the board, is if the ranking is based on some "expected" measure based on last year - when Bama was pretty good, and FSU was garbage.

Point is, it's more about last year's games than this year's.
 
ajkreider said:
That's kind of my point. If it's based on the actual games - I mean, look at the details of their game.

YPP/ Bama 4.7 - FSU 6.1
3rd Down Efficiency/ Bama 6/17 FSU 5/12
4th Down/ Bama 2/5 FSU 2/2

FSU were more efficient by these measures, lost the TO battle, and still won by 2 TDs. Both teams played a scrub that they blew out the next week. The only way Bama gets ranked #2, and FSU isn't even on the board, is if the ranking is based on some "expected" measure based on last year - when Bama was pretty good, and FSU was garbage.

Point is, it's more about last year's games than this year's.
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I'm not an expert on SP+ but I'm pretty sure it doesn't use 3rd and 4th down efficiency. YPP? Probably, yes. But more likely something like Success Rate and Expected EPA.

And if last year wasn't taken into account, at least partially, then beating Alabama wouldn't mean anything. Which is basically the only reason people think FSU is good.
 
I don't know if FSU is any good or not, but I think they're a fair bit better than Bama. Which is the point.
 
Cane Fan 4 Life said:
I hope not. We might as well go back to the BCS days. What should matter is results on the field, not some nerd metrics to make certain teams look better.
Hopefully we have a committee with some balls this year that isn’t trying to justify pushing in another blue blood or SEC team.
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Emotionally brace yourself.

"We have looked at all the data and the body of work of each team and determined, in our opinion, the most deserving teams in a large field of very deserving teams...we know not everyone will be pleased with or understand our final decision...but we don't care so you can suck it suckas!!! "
 
IndayArtHauz said:
In SP+.

Remember, this is an unbiased review of the performance data of each sector of the game, that’s it.

Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks are number 1. Our defense is holding us back in this regard, ranking 62nd.

The SP+ is not suggesting that we are not a better team than those above us, just that we are not as efficient or “successful” as some others. I think we’d agree this rating aligns with what we’ve seen on the field through two games.

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SP+ at this point still heavily factors in pre-season projections, so lol at it being anything meaningful.

Also, I'm surprised you of all people would post this. After all, as much as you want to use this to neg Miami, Miami is still ahead of your beloved Noles
 
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IndayArtHauz said:
In SP+.

Remember, this is an unbiased review of the performance data of each sector of the game, that’s it.

Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks are number 1. Our defense is holding us back in this regard, ranking 62nd.

The SP+ is not suggesting that we are not a better team than those above us, just that we are not as efficient or “successful” as some others. I think we’d agree this rating aligns with what we’ve seen on the field through two games.

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“this is an unbiased review of the performance”

This was created by an espn writer with no background in stem let alone math or computer science. And it is absolutely biased in the strictly mathematical sense of the term and colloquial sense.
It uses Recent Recruiting early in the season to determine so+. The model incorporates a program's recruiting rankings from the previous few seasons to gauge the overall talent level of the roster. The recruit rankings are entirely subjective and often wrong. Go see DMoney’s post on our ranking vs performance under right and Diaz


I have a masters in applied mathematics from Johns Hopkins and a masters in computer science focusing on artificial intelligence from Stanford.
 
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