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Miami prediction - Josh Pate

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They're an unknown because Carson Beck's the quarterback there. They're an unknown
8:04 because the offensive and defensive lines profile as the kind of lines of scrimmage that could land you in a 8:11 national championship game. But no one's predicting Miami to go to the national title game. Half of you aren't even predicting them in the playoff. In fact, 8:17

three quarters of you aren't predicting them in the playoff. And that's because you either don't trust the coaching staff, you don't trust the quarterback, 8:23 you don't trust the defense.

And speaking of that, Corey Heatherman year one, are they going to make a quantum 8:29

leap in defensive production? I think their personnel is a little bit better than what Danton Lynn had to work with 8:35 when he got to USC or what Blake Baker had to work with when he got to LSU, but it's a total unknown

and they got a much 8:42 more difficult schedule. For those of you who um unfortunately and regrettably 8:48 took an off season, I haven't spoken to you about Miami schedule. Miami schedule is such that if they were to make the 8:56 conference title game, that would be their eighth game in a row because the ACC has seen fit to give, I think, three 9:04 of their teams, both of their buys within a 15-day period. 9:10 Don't you people say I'm not qualified to be the commissioner of this sport. But yet the people who are running the sport are putting schedules together 9:16 like this. Listen to this. Miami plays Florida on the 20th of September by week. They play FSU October 4th. Another 9:23 bye week. They're done. No more bye weeks the rest of the year. Louisville, Stanford, at SMU, CU, NC State, at 9:29 Virginia Tech, and at Pit back-to-back road games in cold weather late November for a team from South Florida to end the 9:35

year. And if they make it through all that and they're good enough to play in Charlotte, that is a third consecutive 9:40 game away from home, maybe in cold weather. Who knows what Charlotte has in store for you in December. But anyway, 9:48 it's a much more difficult path to navigate with, I would say, more uncertainty this year. But that's what 9:54 makes it an unknown. That's not necessarily what makes it a weakness.
 
Glow said:

They're an unknown because Carson Beck's the quarterback there. They're an unknown
8:04 because the offensive and defensive lines profile as the kind of lines of scrimmage that could land you in a 8:11 national championship game. But no one's predicting Miami to go to the national title game. Half of you aren't even predicting them in the playoff. In fact, 8:17

three quarters of you aren't predicting them in the playoff. And that's because you either don't trust the coaching staff, you don't trust the quarterback, 8:23 you don't trust the defense.

And speaking of that, Corey Heatherman year one, are they going to make a quantum 8:29

leap in defensive production? I think their personnel is a little bit better than what Danton Lynn had to work with 8:35 when he got to USC or what Blake Baker had to work with when he got to LSU, but it's a total unknown

and they got a much 8:42 more difficult schedule. For those of you who um unfortunately and regrettably 8:48 took an off season, I haven't spoken to you about Miami schedule. Miami schedule is such that if they were to make the 8:56 conference title game, that would be their eighth game in a row because the ACC has seen fit to give, I think, three 9:04 of their teams, both of their buys within a 15-day period. 9:10 Don't you people say I'm not qualified to be the commissioner of this sport. But yet the people who are running the sport are putting schedules together 9:16 like this. Listen to this. Miami plays Florida on the 20th of September by week. They play FSU October 4th. Another 9:23 bye week. They're done. No more bye weeks the rest of the year. Louisville, Stanford, at SMU, CU, NC State, at 9:29 Virginia Tech, and at Pit back-to-back road games in cold weather late November for a team from South Florida to end the 9:35

year. And if they make it through all that and they're good enough to play in Charlotte, that is a third consecutive 9:40 game away from home, maybe in cold weather. Who knows what Charlotte has in store for you in December. But anyway, 9:48 it's a much more difficult path to navigate with, I would say, more uncertainty this year. But that's what 9:54 makes it an unknown. That's not necessarily what makes it a weakness.
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Why do you listen to these guys who clearly don't know ish?
 
CaneDog66 said:
He’s hedging on both sides of the fence mate. My comment was to pick a prediction and then stand by it. Not use a modeling caveat as a means out.
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Wouldn't you agree friend, that's what modeling does?

Por examplo...

Everyone saying, "this is the BEST Miami squad in decades!" and our Canes should win 10+ games...(and they are not wrong from a certain lens)...will then be the loudest voices to say, "well Miami went 6-6 because Beck got a season ending injury on the first play..."

EVERY prediction has a hedge, a "yeah well"...

Since 2001, tbe ugly truth is our Canes are a ~7.6 W team on average. Roster in, roster out. Corches in, Corches out. That isn't an tweak on the nose or poke in tbe chest to anyone "who knows ball", but rather its a validation for those of us who live in reality and actually understand data.

Since 2020 one would ask? ~7.4 W (JFC!).

Since 2015? ~7.7 W (this is depressing).

How about since Mario? ~7.3 dub uuuus

Last two seasons? ~8.5 Ws (trending up)

The mean is a mean ***** and she is in place for a reason...easy to meet, hard to beat, and even easier to fall below. Don't take my word for, the mean is all around us. From Warren Buffet to Vanguard to Wall Street to everyday you drive to work. That is why the Toyota Production System (Saban...and I believe Mario, are big fans) works so ruthlessly to make an organization better. Its why Mario has been hiejunka-ing* and kaizen-ing* the beejeeus out of Hecht since he arrived. Last season showed promise, then total and complete failure reared its ugly head again at the end (Touchdown GT and Syracuse!!!)

Vegas (and Pate) know all the above so they, allegedly:

look at the data + sprinkle in "know ball" = model prediction(s)



It's how they both pay their bills and by some accounts, are doing it pretty well.

Considering the mean, Pate's model is actually predicting Miami to overachieve its T24M data but still return back down (but still elevated), from last year's bump.

Your heart, my heart, everyone's heart wants these Canes to go undefeated.

Our brains should tell us prove it and start on 30 Aug.

Wheels come off tbe wagon and 4 Ls are easy to see, but I'm going against the data (I'll regret it)...I can see 12-0 as realistic...and I'm sticking to it until they force me to revise it.

Go Canes.


*roughly
 
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CANESCANES said:
They literally made shirts to drive it home to finish this year

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I can tell right now, by your insistence on this, that you never played this game at a high level. I’m gonna say this one last time for you, T-shirt or no T-shirt, not one single player gives one crap about what happened last year or any year in the past. Players do not think about that stuff at all. All they care about is executing at the highest level and like I said before, if we do that, none of that stuff will happen. But by all means, carry on with your agenda.
 
Some can see the tree, some can see the forest, rare is the person who can see both and understand the critical importance of each.
 
9-4. we split the ND gators games, drop 2 conference games we have no business losing and of course loss the bowel game cuz we don’t win those and half the team will have opted out
 
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Morey161 said:
I mean what are we doing here. This guy went from trying to be level headed to just saying dumb ****.

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Big fan of Sellers personally but everyone knows Sophomore slump is a saying for a reason. See how he adjusts this year

But at least he’s a sophomore that produced at a high level as a freshman good lord
 
JHallCanes said:
Big fan of Sellers personally but everyone knows Sophomore slump is a saying for a reason. See how he adjusts this year

But at least he’s a sophomore that produced at a high level as a freshman good lord
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I am really only complaining about DJ Lagway.

I can see any of the other 3 sure. But Lagway just hasn't proven anything and has been and is injured. How can you not put any of Levitt, Beck, Aller, Nuss....I mean anyone.
 
Morey161 said:
I am really only complaining about DJ Lagway.

I can see any of the other 3 sure. But Lagway just hasn't proven anything and has been and is injured. How can you not put any of Levitt, Beck, Aller, Nuss....I mean anyone.
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Oh for sure was just kinda throwing **** against the wall on my part. I mean taking the gator hatred away I think Lagway is good. Seems like a good head on his shoulders and clearly talented

But crazy work putting him at #1

Very clickable engagement though since we are here talking about it
 
JHallCanes said:
Oh for sure was just kinda throwing **** against the wall on my part. I mean taking the gator hatred away I think Lagway is good. Seems like a good head on his shoulders and clearly talented

But crazy work putting him at #1

Very clickable engagement though since we are here talking about it
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Right, totally agree with you including I think Lagway is good.
 
Morey161 said:
Right, totally agree with you including I think Lagway is good.
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I like track record when it comes to QBs. Multiple years of showing they can adjust to adjustments etc

Veteran leadership at the position usually is what stands out when teams outperform expectations

But I suppose in a slight defense of the rankings there really isn’t a lot of sure fire elite QBs this year it’s pretty wide open
 
NicKane said:
I can tell right now, by your insistence on this, that you never played this game at a high level. I’m gonna say this one last time for you, T-shirt or no T-shirt, not one single player gives one crap about what happened last year or any year in the past. Players do not think about that stuff at all. All they care about is executing at the highest level and like I said before, if we do that, none of that stuff will happen. But by all means, carry on with your agenda.
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IMG_7544.jpeg
 
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I’ve been trying to caution people on Sellers as well

Yes he’s an electric runner but it might be a tough year
 
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