Miami/ND analysis-prediction

[3FW]

Very similar teams on paper talent wise with a slight edge to ND.

but I think the QB situation and what will be a huge home field advantage (ironically) will outweigh any talent advantage they may have.

battle tested QB and home field win us this game.

Agree.

 

[3FW]

If that preview was done by anyone other than Brian Smith, I would destroy it. However, that dude knows football and REALLY knows recruiting. Shodell said both of ND's DE's are likely out for the game, which nullifies the second point. I don't get why the QB factor isn't being talked about more.

Not sure what Shodell is talking about. Plus they were likely going to rotate 6 guys at DE anyway.

 

[3FW]

I like Brian Smith, but there is zero chance their OL is better.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I like Brian Smith, but there is zero chance their OL is better.

 

[ageezy]

Unlike the 2017 matchup, this matchup I believe has more irrational variables being discussed negatively against Miami compared to 2017.

The idea that a healthy Carson Beck is somehow lesser of an option than Carr and some other QBs mentioned is laughable. On resume: he is the most experienced and solidified big game QB left in CFB this year. His down years was Levitt/Nussmeier/Sellers best seasons. There isnt a single QB who faced the level of opposition Beck has faced the last 3 years from practice to games.

The reality is on paper these teams are highly identical in how they’ll approach this year and the position by position is a wash.

In my humble opinion, ND has the advantage at:

RB (A+ to Miami A-)
DB (A to Miami A-)
LB (A to Miami B+)
Head coaching.

Miami has the advantage at:
QB (A to likely B)
OL (A+ to A)
DL (A- to B+).

The deciding factors for the game to me are:

Can Greathouse and ND WRs help Carr and can Miami DL get pressure on Carr.

The last great X-factor is Mario. This is his chance to show where he is as a coach and the program is. Miami doesn’t NEED a win, but this game will likely show how we perform this year and whether or not we’ll get to that next level in the immediate future. I think a win here means Miami charges towards 11-1/12-0 and a date in Charlotte. I don’t see Miami winning this game and losing any if not one.

A loss will be a barometer test showing we aren’t “there.” The likelihood is whatever fails us on 8/31 will fail us again during the season.

I think Miami has far more at stake and I don’t see ND with any generational players that can tip the scale dramatically in their favor this night.

If Miami new DC/players are what they are billed, I expect them to really turn up the heat inspired by a Rabid Hard Rock crowd that’s been waiting for this moment. I don’t see Miami losing because they don’t have a choice but to win as far as perception. This is the moment. Miami in 2025 I expect will mimick the 98 Tennessee Vols in that they lose the 1st pick at QB but are sneakily more balance and excel more the following season with an experience guy. (Tee Martin-Carson Beck).

Miami will win 27-17. A late game INT from the new portal additions will seal ND faith as they drive to tie and maybe win in Hard rock and it comes up short.

This is the Canes moment.

are you saying notre dame is gonna get B+ qb play? if so, based on what?

 

[wichitacane]

I would try to gameplan to score 30 or more.
As JJ said. POUR IT ON
I can't see any way those chumps put that many up against us.

 

[JHallCanes]

Leonard threw 21 TD passes and had 17 rushing TDs. Thats 5 fewer TDs than Cam accounted for last year. The idea that Leonard is easily replaced is pretty flawed in my opinion. Leonard’s threat as a dynamic runner was a major part of their offensive success. Carr at QB removes that threat and changes their offense. Add the fact that he has no experience, and this is a huge step backward for their offense, especially in game 1.

Agreed I think because Leonard wasn’t a prolific passer gave a false read

Same could be said for Will Howard (not a direct comparison) they just got the job done

 

[Glow]

If that preview was done by anyone other than Brian Smith, I would destroy it. However, that dude knows football and REALLY knows recruiting. Shodell said both of ND's DE's are likely out for the game, which nullifies the second point. I don't get why the QB factor isn't being talked about more.

Yea to me at high level CFB it is similar to NFL analysis, QB play is overwhelmingly important.

Some guys are talking like ND is gonna trench bully the Canes like the Canes are a mid-major, that **** ain't happening. Miami is gonna force Carr to make plays and Beck can make tight window throws so if Beck happens to be on point he is gonna set a pace for scoring that is a lot to ask Carr to keep up with.

 

[flips]

We are going to destroy them

 

[GirthQuake]

- Basically thinks ND superior chemistry is gonna be the difference but they are higher on Miami talent than most of national media



- Agrees with everyone that ND secondary is elite
- Says ND has NFL Defensive Ends and good speed rushing LBs, says Mauigoa and Bell are both good but can be beaten with speed rush at times
- Says game might come down to whether Miami can block ND pass rush on obvious passing downs
- Says all 5 ND OL will be NFL, says Miami's OL is about as good but has to face a better defense
- Says ND OL Anthonie Knapp struggled in pass pro some last year and it could flip the game if he can't pass protect
- Is a believer in Trader, thinks based on recruiting Miami's WRs might be a little better than people are thinking
- Is a fan of Bissainthe
- Says ND QB will throw at least 1 pick deep down the middle because inexperienced QBs always do that
- Doesn't think Virginia transfer WR Malachi Fields is guardable 1 on 1 and thinks will be a big problem for Miami
- Agrees with everyone that ND RB room is legit
- Thinks Miami RB room was disrespected by that award watch list and Fletcher will be NFL after this year
- Says Beck shouldn't throw in Leonard Moore's direction at all and Leonard Moore is gonna be a 10 yr NFL guy
- Says ND has big special teams advantage and expects ND to win field position battle
- Says Miami has talent but has had to portal a lot, thinks ND culture and chemistry will win out
- Says if ND loses it is because Lofton probably had a big game, doesn't think LBs can cover Lofton, one question for the game is "Will Miami use Lofton enough?"
- Predicts close game, late ND score to win 31-20

I watched it and the other guy is an open homer for notre dame. What’s funny is the other guy checked him hard who usually ***** on us.

 

[BigDikDaddyFromCincinnati]

Not sure what Shodell is talking about. Plus they were likely going to rotate 6 guys at DE anyway.

I'm not sure I could have written it any clearer, but I'll try. On this morning's episode of Good Morning Verminbag, Shodell said that ND's top TWO defensive ends are hurt and they're expected to miss the game. I would post a link, but this site is a million x better and I don't want to disrespect Team DMoney like that.
Now is Shodell FOS? I mean, could be, but he doesn't usually do that.

 

[The U is back to work]

Lmao of course their whole OL NFL bound and that ours is suspect with 2 guys slated to be top 64 picks likely.

 

[NJshoreCane]

QB play in the red zone will be the difference.
They'll get there. Let's just force them into passing situations when they do.

 

[grover]

Shannon Dawson… he’s the X factor as always.

I’ve said it and I’ll say it again and again. When no one has had tape on his offenses early season (A&M and UF) he rolls. People think Miami bout to try and run this ball…. Dawson gonna having them boys ready to catch. He’s gonna make ND keep up, Carson gonna get his. Quite possibly the biggest advantage UM has is QB vs QB.

Fact of the matter is, Miami is scoring 27-37 points. Can ND keep pace? Could Carr do it? Potentially, but I’ll bet no.

UM 37-24.

Facts.

Mario and Dawson and the NIL investors did not go recruit the best QB in the portal for $4M(?) just to run the ball. Beck is the most experienced QB in all college football in terms of playing quality opponents. Cam had tons of latitude in calling plays even vs. UF last season. Beck will have even more. If he sees an opening, he will have full authority to audible a pass anywhere on the field he wants to go.

 

[9oh4Cane]

Their talent is overrated. Not worried about a bunch of whites and light skins from the Midwest and northeast.

Welcome to prime time in Miami Gardens, b*tches.

Yes this is a serious post.

 

[nickster]

Their talent is overrated. Not worried about a bunch of whites and light skins from the Midwest and northeast.

Welcome to prime time in Miami Gardens, b*tches.

Yes this is a serious post.

Lol, their roster is full young gifted black men. No, it's not a serious post but it is RACIST!

 

[Calinative]

One thing I have been pleasantly surprised with is how Miami comes out initially after the offseason with Mario. When we walked out of the swamp last year everyone thought we had a playoff team. They were prepared, played hard, executed, it was great to see especially when Miami for so long was awful after bye weeks and things like that. No one even seemed surprised on Miami side, like we expected to do that to them.

Same with 2 years ago. I think we had a cupcake game 1 but Texas A&M game 2 when we won in a shootout. Execution not as clean but they were prepared. I am hoping the same thing and we come out with our hair on fire and quickly get a lead. Need something to jumpstart that crowd because a 10-3 game at half is going to be what ND wants.

Mario has more of an opposite of James Franklin problem. To me it feels he more often has guys ready to go for the bigger games... its the should win games we randomly struggle with.... Opposite of James Franklin. Franklin wins every should-win game. He always loses with its a Michigan/Ohio state at the top of their game...

 

[NC_Canes_11]

Whatever knocks one might have on Mario, not having his team ready to go at the beginning of the season isn't one of them. OSU in 21 and UF last year can be cited as evidence.

Great point. And while Freeman isn’t as bad as Brian Kelly (who can’t win a big opening weekend game if his life depended on it) his teams generally get better as the season progresses. And I don’t see how this year will be any different with him breaking in 2 new QBs.

 

[canes732]

Make 2025 the year when we stop comparing position groups to discuss the outcome of football games.

I genuinely appreciate the effort, but I cannot stress how irrelevant the match-up of our running backs against their running backs is. They don't play football at the same time.

I understand your premise, you're comparing overall rosters. But again, that's essentially irrelevant. Miami, position by position, was superior to Syracuse. But they had a MASSIVE advantage in what was BY FAR the strength of their team (their passing game) versus what was BY FAR the weakness of Miami's team (the secondary). And that one area of massive strength versus crippling weakness decided the entire football game.

IMO the story of the game will come down to Miami's WR's versus ND's back 7....and Miami's front 7 versus ND's backs. If we can limit Love and the group somewhat, we'll be successful on defense. If we can get open against their secondary, we'll be able to move the ball consistently. Unfortunately, I think ND has the edge in both those spots, but it's not like Miami is totally devoid of advantages. I love our corners against their WRs, especially when you factor in a new QB in a very loud environment and what I feel will be a substantial pass rush. I think we'll be able to run the ball efficiently on anyone we play. We have a very experienced quarterback who ND will not be able to rattle or confuse. And we'll have 70,000 sauced gorillas at full throat, in humidity so thick you can wear it. I love our chances.

But these are 2 good teams. We're home, and they have a QB playing for the first time. I seriously doubt it'll be 41-8, but there's no reason to not get this done.

I assume the game on D will look similar to 2017 but in a different way load the box but play man. Think we played a lot of zone against Winbush bc he was so inaccurate. Play man make the windows to throw smaller and make Carr beat us can’t let Love beat us

 

[skyman]

Bullet 3 - RB/TE vs. LB/S - This one (in my opinion) encompasses the OL too. For instance, I could see where ND might think "hey, Love is as good as Fletcher/Lyle", and maybe that could be true in a vacuum. But the way that Miami's OL opened up the run last year, and the way that our TEs are probably more oriented towards blocking and the "surprise" receptions, I think Miami will have more VARIETY in the running attack against ND's LBs and Safeties. Having said that, Love is a very good running back who Miami MUST get wrapped up quickly, or else he can do some damage. And while I do not discount the OTHER running backs for ND, they are (by comparison) more unproven than Love. I do feel good about Miami's safeties, and I will be as curious as anyone else to see where our LBs come in on the "potential vs. actual" scale. I give Miami the RB/TE edge over the ND LB/S group, and I give a very small edge to the ND RB/TE over the Miami LB/S group, though Miami's DL could impact the ND RB even more than is mentioned in this paragraph. If this was strictly a "passing" situation, I give Miami's RB/TE group a bigger edge because Beck really knows how to use those weapons, and I make it a toss-up between the ND RB/TE and the Miami LB/S because I don't feel that Carr will be able to use passes to the RB/TE quite as well as Beck does.

Agree with everything here but Jadarian Price kid is impressive. He is pretty proven as he had 700+ yards. Good size, has explosive runs in limited carries And elusive with good size. Has good size, vision, can make 1st guy miss in open field and can house it. He has more yards than both our guys who we talk highly of last year and he was 3rd option in their running attack.