forums

Miami/ND analysis-prediction

GreatToBeAMiamiHurricane said:
Leonard threw 21 TD passes and had 17 rushing TDs. Thats 5 fewer TDs than Cam accounted for last year. The idea that Leonard is easily replaced is pretty flawed in my opinion. Leonard’s threat as a dynamic runner was a major part of their offensive success. Carr at QB removes that threat and changes their offense. Add the fact that he has no experience, and this is a huge step backward for their offense, especially in game 1.
Click to expand...
yea I definitely stand corrected, great points fellas!
 
Advertisement
CreativeCane said:
Was just about to post this same exact thing. I've never understood the QB matchup analysis. QBs literally never face off. I feel analysis should typically be (with some flexibility depending on matchups):
  • QB/WR/TE vs CB/S
  • OL vs DL/LB
  • RB/TE vs LB/S
  • OC vs DC
Click to expand...


Agree completely.

Bullet 1 - QB/WR/TE vs. CB/S - While I acknowledge that our pass-catchers have something to prove/establish this year, I do believe that Beck's ability to carve up the DB groups all over the SEC give him a major advantage. That is not to say that Notre Dame is "bad" in the defensive backfield. On the contrary, they can be as good as they wanna be, but Beck has been-there/done-that and I think he can beat almost any defensive backfield in the country. Our WRs and TEs just need to be able to hold onto his dimes. On the other hand, I think that a freshman QB like Carr might struggle against even the 2024 Miami DBs (see, generally, Heisman candidate DJ Lagway), but we are no longer burdened by the 2024 DBs, we now have the new-and-improved version. Summed up, I think Miami has the QB/WR/TE edge on offense, and the CB/S edge on defense.

Bullet 2 - OL vs. DL/LB - This comparison is a much closer call. I'm not going to get into a lengthy analysis of player vs. player, particularly when there may be some adjustments as to how the defense is schemed and play-called, perhaps minor (ND has a new DC, but Freeman is still there) or major (Hetherman vs. Guidry). I give a moderate edge to the Miami OLs over the ND DL/LB corps, and I probably give a narrow edge to the Notre Dame OL over Miami's DL/LB group, almost exclusively based on the mystery of what our LBs will now become under Hetherman. And I would have been willing to give ND a bigger edge, but isn't one of their OLs out for this game?

Bullet 3 - RB/TE vs. LB/S - This one (in my opinion) encompasses the OL too. For instance, I could see where ND might think "hey, Love is as good as Fletcher/Lyle", and maybe that could be true in a vacuum. But the way that Miami's OL opened up the run last year, and the way that our TEs are probably more oriented towards blocking and the "surprise" receptions, I think Miami will have more VARIETY in the running attack against ND's LBs and Safeties. Having said that, Love is a very good running back who Miami MUST get wrapped up quickly, or else he can do some damage. And while I do not discount the OTHER running backs for ND, they are (by comparison) more unproven than Love. I do feel good about Miami's safeties, and I will be as curious as anyone else to see where our LBs come in on the "potential vs. actual" scale. I give Miami the RB/TE edge over the ND LB/S group, and I give a very small edge to the ND RB/TE over the Miami LB/S group, though Miami's DL could impact the ND RB even more than is mentioned in this paragraph. If this was strictly a "passing" situation, I give Miami's RB/TE group a bigger edge because Beck really knows how to use those weapons, and I make it a toss-up between the ND RB/TE and the Miami LB/S because I don't feel that Carr will be able to use passes to the RB/TE quite as well as Beck does.

Bullet 4 - OC vs. DC - Before we really analyze anything, it must be pointed out that Miami had the #1 offense in the country last year. Clearly, not all of that is due to some PhD level playbook from Dawson, but is more due to him empowering Cam Ward (and now Carson Beck) to use what they see to modify playcalls without having to "look at me" for 20 seconds prior to snapping the ball. And while ND has a "new" DC (though Freeman's fingerprints are on everything), I have to give the Miami OC the edge over the Notre Dame DC. In the other direction, while I could give ND's Denbrock the edge over Miami's newbie Hetherman, I feel that the inexperience of Carr is going to limit what Denbrock can call, thus blunting some/most of his OC advantages. And let's not forget that Hetherman was a DC in the Big 10. So this is an area where it's probably more of a toss-up than it should be, all other things being equal.
 
This game is bigger for Miami to win than ND.... if we lose, it's back to negative town here and the nation continues the overrated/choker narrative, and Miami doesn't have the best record of bouncing back from a big loss...

If ND loses, it's chalked up to a early season Rookie QB that will bounce back and they'll still end up in the playoff hunt...

Beck and Hardrock need to be the difference makers and rattling Carr early and often
 
JayCane20 said:
Strictly comparing position by position I would say ND's only clear advantage is LB and Miami's clear advantage is QB. I would lean ND at RB, WR, and DB - but not worried in the slightest about any of those positions at Miami. You could argue RB is a clear advantage for ND but our room is too loaded for me to classify it as that. I would lean Miami at TE and DE. No idea about DT - I think Miami has the talent advantage at DT but ND has the experience/age advantage.

If Miami stops the run, meaning an area we have a lesser unit (LB) and an unknown (DT) won over the strength of their team, I really don't see how they beat us. A quick start for us and getting the young QB behind, I doubt they would be able to claw back in on the road in that environment. As long as our defense is what I think it is. Respectable and actually somewhat capable of getting a stop.
Click to expand...

One thing I have been pleasantly surprised with is how Miami comes out initially after the offseason with Mario. When we walked out of the swamp last year everyone thought we had a playoff team. They were prepared, played hard, executed, it was great to see especially when Miami for so long was awful after bye weeks and things like that. No one even seemed surprised on Miami side, like we expected to do that to them.

Same with 2 years ago. I think we had a cupcake game 1 but Texas A&M game 2 when we won in a shootout. Execution not as clean but they were prepared. I am hoping the same thing and we come out with our hair on fire and quickly get a lead. Need something to jumpstart that crowd because a 10-3 game at half is going to be what ND wants.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Make 2025 the year when we stop comparing position groups to discuss the outcome of football games.

I genuinely appreciate the effort, but I cannot stress how irrelevant the match-up of our running backs against their running backs is. They don't play football at the same time.

I understand your premise, you're comparing overall rosters. But again, that's essentially irrelevant. Miami, position by position, was superior to Syracuse. But they had a MASSIVE advantage in what was BY FAR the strength of their team (their passing game) versus what was BY FAR the weakness of Miami's team (the secondary). And that one area of massive strength versus crippling weakness decided the entire football game.

IMO the story of the game will come down to Miami's WR's versus ND's back 7....and Miami's front 7 versus ND's backs. If we can limit Love and the group somewhat, we'll be successful on defense. If we can get open against their secondary, we'll be able to move the ball consistently. Unfortunately, I think ND has the edge in both those spots, but it's not like Miami is totally devoid of advantages. I love our corners against their WRs, especially when you factor in a new QB in a very loud environment and what I feel will be a substantial pass rush. I think we'll be able to run the ball efficiently on anyone we play. We have a very experienced quarterback who ND will not be able to rattle or confuse. And we'll have 70,000 sauced gorillas at full throat, in humidity so thick you can wear it. I love our chances.

But these are 2 good teams. We're home, and they have a QB playing for the first time. I seriously doubt it'll be 41-8, but there's no reason to not get this done.
Click to expand...
Do you not believe it will be 41-8 because you think Freeman trusts his kicker with the PAT?





1755805748137.png
 
Shannon Dawson… he’s the X factor as always.

I’ve said it and I’ll say it again and again. When no one has had tape on his offenses early season (A&M and UF) he rolls. People think Miami bout to try and run this ball…. Dawson gonna having them boys ready to catch. He’s gonna make ND keep up, Carson gonna get his. Quite possibly the biggest advantage UM has is QB vs QB.

Fact of the matter is, Miami is scoring 27-37 points. Can ND keep pace? Could Carr do it? Potentially, but I’ll bet no.

UM 37-24.
 
For all the media folks out there crowning ND in August, did they forget that they lost to NORTHERN ILLINOIS last year AT HOME!?!?!
Yes, I get it....beginning of the year, excuse this, excuse that....end of the year they were national runners up (that point is super valid btw).....but it does not cancel out them losing AT HOME to Northern Illinois..

I hate these pieces of sheet. Like seriously. I hate them. I hate their team, their school, their stupid little nothing town, their arrogant unemployed and uneducated white trash racist fans. I hate their colors. I hate their stupid mascot....a lot. I hate Knute Rockne - who the F names their kid "Knute"? I mean it's Newt. Dummies couldn't even spell. I hate Dan Devine, Ara Paraseghian, Charlie "tall pants" Weis, Brian "it's ok to film in gale force winds" Kelly, Gerry Faust. I want Lou Holtzch and Rudy to be tied together and burnt at the stake as though they're some sort of medievil Schismatic outlaw religious diad. Slow burn obviously. I hate the media bias in their favor. I hate that they have "their own network." I hate that they're not in a conference, yet get the benefits of being in one. They suck and everything associated with them sucks.
 
Advertisement
EudocimusAlbus said:
correct me if I'm wrong, but their QB last year wasn't exactly lighting up the stat line much was he? The team made it to chip without a Cam Ward type back there. Someone mentioned it before, but this will be Miami vs a juiced up version of GT. They don't necessarily need a huge QB contribution imo
Click to expand...
GT last year basically couldn’t throw the ball so I think it’ll be a little more balanced than that game, but yeah theyre going to try to make it easy on their new QB and set him up for success
 
I don’t think the national analysts are giving our wr corps enough credit. What worries me the most if this is a close game coming down to field goals with our camp reports up and down.
 
I think the slight edge goes to ND on a neutral field. Big question mark and disadvantage at QB despite the intense coping on social media that’s been hilarious.

Rest of the team I’m willing to give them an edge, to various degrees except for DEs.

But we have a solid team overall, no gaping holes on paper except maybe special teams being a question mark given poor past execution and kicking drop off. WRs are talented but do have a lot to prove, and Carson missed an entire spring with them. I think it’s realistic the chemistry there will continue to improve in the season over game 1.

Hard Rock atmosphere and fan energy could really make or break this. That’s my honest take.
 
Football is a complex sport right. Hard to figure out which aspects are going to have the most effect on the game. Especially in college, where you can pull statistics that are bloated and distorted by the massive difference in teams talent.

That being said. I believe Miami has a better chance of running a balanced offense than ND. We have the offensive line to run or pass protect. Dawson has to and will pass the ball. We have the talent to do that with our receiving corps and QB. ND has a better chance of being forced into a one dimensional offense that will allow us to play downhill. This may be a little wishful thinking, but I could see the wheels fall of ND if they fall behind early.

27-17 Canes
 
Advertisement


- Basically thinks ND superior chemistry is gonna be the difference but they are higher on Miami talent than most of national media



- Agrees with everyone that ND secondary is elite
- Says ND has NFL Defensive Ends and good speed rushing LBs, says Mauigoa and Bell are both good but can be beaten with speed rush at times
- Says game might come down to whether Miami can block ND pass rush on obvious passing downs
- Says all 5 ND OL will be NFL, says Miami's OL is about as good but has to face a better defense
- Says ND OL Anthonie Knapp struggled in pass pro some last year and it could flip the game if he can't pass protect
- Is a believer in Trader, thinks based on recruiting Miami's WRs might be a little better than people are thinking
- Is a fan of Bissainthe
- Says ND QB will throw at least 1 pick deep down the middle because inexperienced QBs always do that
- Doesn't think Virginia transfer WR Malachi Fields is guardable 1 on 1 and thinks will be a big problem for Miami
- Agrees with everyone that ND RB room is legit
- Thinks Miami RB room was disrespected by that award watch list and Fletcher will be NFL after this year
- Says Beck shouldn't throw in Leonard Moore's direction at all and Leonard Moore is gonna be a 10 yr NFL guy
- Says ND has big special teams advantage and expects ND to win field position battle
- Says Miami has talent but has had to portal a lot, thinks ND culture and chemistry will win out
- Says if ND loses it is because Lofton probably had a big game, doesn't think LBs can cover Lofton, one question for the game is "Will Miami use Lofton enough?"
- Predicts close game, late ND score to win 31-20
 
Glow said:


- Basically thinks ND superior chemistry is gonna be the difference but they are higher on Miami talent than most of national media



- Agrees with everyone that ND secondary is elite
- Says ND has NFL Defensive Ends and good speed rushing LBs, says Mauigoa and Bell are both good but can be beaten with speed rush at times
- Says game might come down to whether Miami can block ND pass rush on obvious passing downs
- Says all 5 ND OL will be NFL, says Miami's OL is about as good but has to face a better defense
- Says ND OL Anthonie Knapp struggled in pass pro some last year and it could flip the game if he can't pass protect
- Is a believer in Trader, thinks based on recruiting Miami's WRs might be a little better than people are thinking
- Is a fan of Bissainthe
- Says ND QB will throw at least 1 pick deep down the middle because inexperienced QBs always do that
- Doesn't think Virginia transfer WR Malachi Fields is guardable 1 on 1 and thinks will be a big problem for Miami
- Agrees with everyone that ND RB room is legit
- Thinks Miami RB room was disrespected by that award watch list and Fletcher will be NFL after this year
- Says Beck shouldn't throw in Leonard Moore's direction at all and Leonard Moore is gonna be a 10 yr NFL guy
- Says ND has big special teams advantage and expects ND to win field position battle
- Says Miami has talent but has had to portal a lot, thinks ND culture and chemistry will win out
- Says if ND loses it is because Lofton probably had a big game, doesn't think LBs can cover Lofton, one question for the game is "Will Miami use Lofton enough?"
- Predicts close game, late ND score to win 31-20
Click to expand...

If that preview was done by anyone other than Brian Smith, I would destroy it. However, that dude knows football and REALLY knows recruiting. Shodell said both of ND's DE's are likely out for the game, which nullifies the second point. I don't get why the QB factor isn't being talked about more.
 
Back
Top