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Miami -9.5 vs. F$U

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MovingZen said:
I kinda figured it might keep going up, that's why I jumped in early this week. How high do you think it'll get?
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Very tough to say this early but we’ve seen it cross two key numbers, 10 and 11, so I’d say it either closes back at 11 or it could climb to the next key number, 13. We aren’t winning by exactly 12.
 
LatinCane said:
Two years ago the opening line was Miami -12.5.

"The Canes opened as a 12 point favorite against FSU on BetOnline, and 13.5 point favorites on VegasInsider."

Point spreads don't mean anything in this game. We were down 20 in that game and came back to win 28-27.
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It’s the direction of the spread I’m mainly interested in. I’d feel more comfortable if we opened -6.5 and closed -8.5 than if we opened -11 and closed -9. And prior years’ games played by different players and coaches won’t impact the game, either.
 
LatinCane said:
This game will make or break their season. I expect a desperate and dangerous FSU team on Saturday night. Small crowd, no students, no band. Yes we have a better team but this is a rivalry game. Don't take anything for granted.
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Band? We don’t need no stinkin band. We got trick daddy for that son
 
LatinCane said:
Two years ago the opening line was Miami -12.5.

"The Canes opened as a 12 point favorite against FSU on BetOnline, and 13.5 point favorites on VegasInsider."

Point spreads don't mean anything in this game. We were down 20 in that game and came back to win 28-27.
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yup. because that team was weak mentally and was overconfident. let's see if things have changed. next saturday brings yet another new test.
 
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FSU is the most badly coached team I've seen in a while. Now, on top of that, their head coach is out with Covid all week. Their interim coach reminds me of Larry Coker's retarded cousin.

I don't care if this is a rivalry game... football is football and we are going to smoke them.

And by the way, their fans know it too. Go read the Noles Tears thread. In all my years following this rivalry, I don't think I've ever seen their fanbase so deflated.
 
The line has climbed to Miami -11.5. I get that this is a rivalry game and usually in games like this everything goes out the window. However, IMO Miami is at least 2 TD's better than fla st. Now as some have already mentioned here, will this be another over confident Miami team going into the game or will this be a focused unit intent on playing their best football from start to finish? Remains to be seen, but I have no doubt Miami from top to bottom is the better team going into this one.

34-20 Miami.

GO CANES!!!
 
Gatorhater said:
To many points for either team to give in this game. Even when one or both teams really suck, this game is often close.
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OK. Mr WORRY WORT. huh? Again, a Cane poster or two, has previously mentioned last season's game in the state C of the Sunshine state. Somewhere up in the Redneck Riviera. huh?
LatinCane said:
This game will make or break their season. I expect a desperate and dangerous FSU team on Saturday night. Small crowd, no students, no band. Yes we have a better team but this is a rivalry game. Don't take anything for granted.
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I dig your sense of concern and what not. But that's alright. Because even Hurricane fan is entitled to their opinions and everything that comes with that.
Nevertheless, I'm in the minority among the vast majority of Hurricane fans and I have no absolute WORRIES about the game. In other words, I DON'T believe the Hurricane players and coaches will " come out flat, " and they all certainly respect this hapless FSU team.

Yes, the Hurricanes will take awhile to get rolling. For instance, FSU possibly will hang tough for a quarter. But NOT longer than that.

The bottom line is this: The team has A LOT going it's way now and they will be more FOCUSED during practice. Which will lead to a DOUBLE-DIGIT victory!
 
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I understand FSU is as garbage as ever, but if there's one thing I've learned about this rivalry it's that you throw spreads out the window.

There were games in the Jameis era where top 5 FSU was a 2 touchdown favorite against us and we mopped them in the first half and had chances to beat them.

I'm not saying we won't blow them out because I feel like we definitely can this year, but I personally won't be surprised if this is a battle like it usually is.
 
Looking through my orange and green lenses, I think we win by at least 14. Sports books do not set lines based on feelings though. I cannot see them letting this get over -13, if it even gets that high.
 
Just a reminder. Last season we were double digit favorites 3x And lost all 3.

With that said. Let’s curb stomp these clowns
 
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mackjones said:
OK. Mr WORRY WORT. huh? Again, a Cane poster or two, has previously mentioned last season's game in the state C of the Sunshine state. Somewhere up in the Redneck Riviera. huh?

I dig your sense of concern and what not. But that's alright. Because even Hurricane fan is entitled to their opinions and everything that comes with that.
Nevertheless, I'm in the minority among the vast majority of Hurricane fans and I have no absolute WORRIES about the game. In other words, I DON'T believe the Hurricane players and coaches will " come out flat, " and they all certainly respect this hapless FSU team.

Yes, the Hurricanes will take awhile to get rolling. For instance, FSU possibly will hang tough for a quarter. But NOT longer than that.

The bottom line is this: The team has A LOT going it's way now and they will be more FOCUSED during practice. Which will lead to a DOUBLE-DIGIT victory!
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We do seem to have more "players" this year and 2-0 if lot better than last year's 0-2. We should be noles this year and I think we will. They are in decline and nobody knows better than Cane fans how hard it is to stop that. I expect us to win but I have made most of my money, betting profits, on Canes as a dog against good teams but no lately. I only bet Canes and don't bet many times. This is not one that I would bet these odds. A nice 50 point beat down would be nice but might get their coach fired and it is better he stay.
 
Poptimus said:
Very tough to say this early but we’ve seen it cross two key numbers, 10 and 11, so I’d say it either closes back at 11 or it could climb to the next key number, 13. We aren’t winning by exactly 12.
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Wont see buyback until the line hits 13.5-14.5. Everybody is betting Miami and for good reason. Big bettors that didn’t take it at 9.5 will hope to see it push past 14 and they’ll lay 5 figures until it settles around 13ish. Could also see buyback right at kickoff the other way and close at 14.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Wont see buyback until the line hits 13.5-14.5. Everybody is betting Miami and for good reason. Big bettors that didn’t take it at 9.5 will hope to see it push past 14 and they’ll lay 5 figures until it settles around 13ish. Could also see buyback right at kickoff the other way and close at 14.
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I wish you were right but I’d be shocked if it climbs to 13.5 or 14. The vig on +11.5 is already starting to climb a bit, it’s now +11.5 -112 whereas it was +11.5 -106.
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
Wont see buyback until the line hits 13.5-14.5. Everybody is betting Miami and for good reason. Big bettors that didn’t take it at 9.5 will hope to see it push past 14 and they’ll lay 5 figures until it settles around 13ish. Could also see buyback right at kickoff the other way and close at 14.
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What is buyback... asking for a friend??
 
MovingZen said:
What is buyback... asking for a friend??
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He means when you see the line move the other way. Usually lines don’t move linearly like it did for our game against Louisville. Usually it zigzags a bit for a variety of reasons. It may move due to injuries; that’s just an adjustment. I care about line moves based on money and “respect accounts” that can move a number because they’re made by profiled winners. You often see buyback when a line moves a lot because some will trust Vegas set it properly when it opened and fade a 4 or 5 point move.

But rest assured, the dudes who move lines know there are dudes who chase steam and casinos who move their lines on air (moving a line before a bet is placed because they see on the screen other casinos are moving their lines and they’re scared they’ll take a huge bet before moving their odds). So the sharps sometimes make a large bet, say $20k to move the line and then circle back at better odds with 4 or 5x that wager on the opposite side. It’s like a pump and dump for sports.
 
LatinCane said:
This game will make or break their season. I expect a desperate and dangerous FSU team on Saturday night. Small crowd, no students, no band. Yes we have a better team but this is a rivalry game. Don't take anything for granted.
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Our defense better show up and show out.
 
Buckle up, there is some significant line movement towards F$U. Line has dropped from -11.5 to -10.5 at Pinnacle and with the vig now -111 it's more likely to move to -10 than back to -11. Moneyline dropped from -409 to now -371. Still lots of time before kickoff to possibly reverse.

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