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Miami 14.5 Point Dawgs to Clemson

NC_Canes_11 said:
To be fair has Lawrence played in the 4th quarter yet? Let’s not act like they don’t have the best QB in America and probably a top 2 running back.
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He played in the fourth quarter last week against Virginia. They needed a couple late scores to put them away. And yes, they have the consensus top QB and a very great running back. But when it comes to proven talent, that’s where it ends. They’ve got some guys at receiver who have potential but right now their best receiver is Etienne. If you’re going to say “Clemson is the best team in the country” that means your making a lot of assumptions about guys who MIGHT be great but haven’t proven anything yet.
 
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DTP said:
He played in the fourth quarter last week against Virginia. They needed a couple late scores to put them away. And yes, they have the consensus top QB and a very great running back. But when it comes to proven talent, that’s where it ends. They’ve got some guys at receiver who have potential but right now their best receiver is Etienne. If you’re going to say “Clemson is the best team in the country” that means your making a lot of assumptions about guys who MIGHT be great but haven’t proven anything yet.
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I agree with you that they aren’t the Clemson of the past couple years, but they have more talent than we do. And even if you didn’t know what happened in previous years, I’d expect Clemson to win. Probably not a blow out, but a win like they had last week. I think the line is pretty spot on. I was expecting 17 but that UVA game did them no favors after we ran FSU and Louisville outta the stadium on prime time.
 
Could the sharps be taking Clemson to manipulate the # to take Miami right before kickoff? I think the line movement in the hour leading up to game will tell us the most.
 
Miami still has to play the game.

We’ve lost to Clemson by a combined 96-3 the last two meetings. I can’t fault them for thinking Clemson spanks Miami until Miami proves otherwise.

but I believe this years Miami team is different. With a dynamic QB I don’t see a way in **** that Clemson is going to beat Miami by 15 or 16 points.

So I’ve bet a decent amount of Capital at -15.5. Either way we will know what type of team we have by the ends of Saturday night.

I do not believe Miami will score less than 21 points. I don’t believe Clemson scores more than 50 on the Miami defense.

I can see a 36-24 game especially when both teams are possessing the ball for a long time.

I could see a 45-30 game.

even a 45-38 game.

What I don’t see is
52-10
48-20
35-0

Or any of that. I just don’t.

Clemson won’t cover and Miami wins. I’ve bet both.
 
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Poptimus said:
Possible, but it seems the opposite happened. Sharps manipulated the line down to Clemson -14 and bet it large. ML was -515 this morning and is now -586. Not good.
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What % of the time do these guys cash in on both teams with big line movements?
 
doohcane said:
What % of the time do these guys cash in on both teams with big line movements?
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Middling a game is much easier with MLB where there is no spread than with football. There you can get arbitrage opportunities like, say, Dodgers -175 and Braves +182 or something and can’t lose if you can correctly anticipate the move and bet it very early. Much harder with football.

As far as our game, the vig slightly moved in our favor at +14.5 recently. It’s entirely possible this is a game where we’ve got roughly the same sharps on both sides. We will know tomorrow.
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DTP said:
He lost to FIU last year. Do you think he’d lose to them if they played this year? Also, not a single guy from that 2017 defense is playing tomorrow. And pretty much every single player form that Clemson offense has graduated. So once again. Why would that game have anything to do with this one?
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I never said it did. I just mentioned someone who was on the staff, get it Karen..
 
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This is what I jumped on when it opened on Sunday lol.

Your boy is on the moneyline and the point spread.

Let’s just get the W tho.

This W would mean so much more than this light *** gambling money lol.
 
3GC said:
I never said it did. I just mentioned someone who was on the staff, get it Karen..
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Lol. If you’re going to try to personally insult me by calling me Karen, at least use it in the correct context. The term “Karen” doesn’t really apply here but I’ll forgive you for not understanding the concept.
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
I agree with you that they aren’t the Clemson of the past couple years, but they have more talent than we do. And even if you didn’t know what happened in previous years, I’d expect Clemson to win. Probably not a blow out, but a win like they had last week. I think the line is pretty spot on. I was expecting 17 but that UVA game did them no favors after we ran FSU and Louisville outta the stadium on prime time.
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That’s my exact point. I never said Clemson wasn’t a great team. They’re probably going to win tomorrow. I’m just saying they’re not some unstoppable juggernaut that Miami has no chance of defeating.
 
DTP said:
That’s my exact point. I never said Clemson wasn’t a great team. They’re probably going to win tomorrow. I’m just saying they’re not some unstoppable juggernaut that Miami has no chance of defeating.
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Haha maybe I misinterpreted what you were saying, bc I agree with that point. I don’t see 14 as a huge spread these days
 
Alright here’s a gambling lesson. This is a snippet of the screen for NFL spreads and the row above the one highlighted in red is the Dolphins/49ers game. See how every casino has SF -9 or -9.5? Pinnacle has it -49ers -8. Not just half a point off every other casino but a full point. This is because they don’t just book bets, they bet. And here they like the Dolphins so they are lowering the 49ers line a full point off the consensus.

Dolphins will likely cover. I’ve seen this play out over the last 10 years.
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DTP said:
Lol. If you’re going to try to personally insult me by calling me Karen, at least use it in the correct context. The term “Karen” doesn’t really apply here but I’ll forgive you for not understanding the concept.
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I'm sure you are Bonafide Expert,..
 
On Gameday they had a pretty wild stat.

In Power 5 v. Power 5 games that featured a double digit underdog, the underdog was 34-17 coming into the week with double digit outright wins...that number is looking to get even better today with Mizzou beating LSU and Tennessee beating UGA at the half.

Miami is going to close a double digit dog.

If you're going to bet the game, be a man and take the ML.
 
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