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Miami 14.5 Point Dawgs to Clemson

gacaneaddict said:
The guy who does sports talk show on Clemson’s radio station here in the upstate is the most knowledgeable sports guy I know.

He is 16-4 vs. the spread this year on football picks. Big Clemson homer guy.

Came on his show yesterday talked about how he has hammered Miami for years how they have sucked and sucked, even in 2017 said they were a fraud.

He said this year it’s different.

He said Miami has him concerned.

He has picked 2 ACC upsets last 2 weeks straight up, took N.C. State last week to beat Pittsburgh straight up.
He said he isn’t ready to call Miami to upset Clemson, but they will cover the 14.
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Smart guy. My two key will be how we handle Etienne, because when its crunch time they lean on him HEAVY and try to get the ball to him by any means, swing passes, screens, draws, put him in slot then screen, fake jet sweep screen, wheel routes, etc. 2nd is how we handle Venables 5 and 6 man pressure, he is ultra aggressive with his defense and tries to dictate to the offense with blitzes and playing down hill blitzing 5 and 6 men, if we can handle that, we got a good chance..
 
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The outcomes of the previous two games has nothing to do with this week’s game or point spread. Nobody from the 2015 game is still playing. Nobody on Miami’s staff from that game is even employed here anymore. Throw that game completely out the window. Only a few current players participated in the 2017 game. The only starter for either team who played in that game was Travis Etienne who had 6 carries for 24 yards. A majority of Miami’s coaching staff from 2017 is no longer employed here. Those games mean nothing in regards to this game beside giving Miami some minor motivation.
 
Josh Pate from 247 made an interesting point. I think I heard it on Ivins’ podcast. Pate said “imagine if you had never watched college football before this season and had no idea who Miami or Clemson were besides the games you have seen in 2020. Would you still think Clemson should be a huge favorite?” He’s right. What has Clemson done in 2020 that makes them an unstoppable juggernaut?
 
Clemson was as high as -600 on the ML and it’s now down to -532 (you have to wager $532 on Clemson to win to make $100). As others noted, the spread has dropped to -14 with even vig on both sides. Using a no vig calculator, you can see Vegas’ most current line gives us roughly a 20% chance to win the game. It’s the direction of the line move that we need to pay attention to up until kickoff.

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DTP said:
Josh Pate from 247 made an interesting point. I think I heard it on Ivins’ podcast. Pate said “imagine if you had never watched college football before this season and had no idea who Miami or Clemson were besides the games you have seen in 2020. Would you still think Clemson should be a huge favorite?” He’s right. What has Clemson done in 2020 that makes them an unstoppable juggernaut?
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You can say that about us but not Clemson. Their best guys on offense were there last year and the year before and we’re elite. Our offense is completely different. Dabo didn’t even watch last years film. Clemson is a known commodity for a reason. Their system and coaching is in place and has been. And their best players are vets
 
305407cane said:
You can say that about us but not Clemson. Their best guys on offense were there last year and the year before and we’re elite. Our offense is completely different. Dabo didn’t even watch last years film. Clemson is a known commodity for a reason. Their system and coaching is in place and has been. And their best players are vets
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I don’t think you got what I was saying. Pate was saying if you ONLY look at 2020 you would have a hard time making Clemson a big favorite. They’re a big favorite for the same reason they’re ranked #1, previous success. If you look strictly at what they’ve done this year, it’s not indicative of the best team in the nation. They beat a pretty bad WF team, an FCS team and had an ugly win against a middle of the road Virginia team. They haven’t looked bad but they aren’t dominating teams like the usually do.
 
gacaneaddict said:
The guy who does sports talk show on Clemson’s radio station here in the upstate is the most knowledgeable sports guy I know.

He is 16-4 vs. the spread this year on football picks. Big Clemson homer guy.

Came on his show yesterday talked about how he has hammered Miami for years how they have sucked and sucked, even in 2017 said they were a fraud.

He said this year it’s different.

He said Miami has him concerned.

He has picked 2 ACC upsets last 2 weeks straight up, took N.C. State last week to beat Pittsburgh straight up.
He said he isn’t ready to call Miami to upset Clemson, but they will cover the 14.
Click to expand...
Update? What were his picks for this weekend....asking for a friend.......
 
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Man, been busy at work today and just looked down for the first time. The line went to -15.5 at some spots?!?! -15 everywhere else.

15 is a dead number, so its not all that scary. But for all the books to move the line to 15 (as opposed to 1 book who had too much liability on Clemson), that means someone sharp probably hit clemson hard.
 
scrantoncane said:
Man, been busy at work today and just looked down for the first time. The line went to -15.5 at some spots?!?! -15 everywhere else.

15 is a dead number, so its not all that scary. But for all the books to move the line to 15 (as opposed to 1 book who had too much liability on Clemson), that means someone sharp probably hit clemson hard.
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yes, interesting indeed.

as an aside,a wise football handicapper, maybe the smartest and most knowledgeable I ever met, once told me:

"NEVER bet the favorite if the line is more than one full TD (< 7.5) ..."

"NEVER bet the underdog unless you think they can outright win the game ..."

He wouldn't have touched this game with a ten foot pole.

(p.s. he died last year, at the age of 81. a wealthy man in his villa in the turks & caicos .... just saying)
 
scrantoncane said:
Man, been busy at work today and just looked down for the first time. The line went to -15.5 at some spots?!?! -15 everywhere else.

15 is a dead number, so its not all that scary. But for all the books to move the line to 15 (as opposed to 1 book who had too much liability on Clemson), that means someone sharp probably hit clemson hard.
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Lots of gamblers are taken Clemson to move the spread like this. Some said that the spread would come down.
 
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DTP said:
The outcomes of the previous two games has nothing to do with this week’s game or point spread. Nobody from the 2015 game is still playing. Nobody on Miami’s staff from that game is even employed here anymore. Throw that game completely out the window. Only a few current players participated in the 2017 game. The only starter for either team who played in that game was Travis Etienne who had 6 carries for 24 yards. A majority of Miami’s coaching staff from 2017 is no longer employed here. Those games mean nothing in regards to this game beside giving Miami some minor motivation.
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What about our head coach?..
 
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DTP said:
Josh Pate from 247 made an interesting point. I think I heard it on Ivins’ podcast. Pate said “imagine if you had never watched college football before this season and had no idea who Miami or Clemson were besides the games you have seen in 2020. Would you still think Clemson should be a huge favorite?” He’s right. What has Clemson done in 2020 that makes them an unstoppable juggernaut?
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To be fair has Lawrence played in the 4th quarter yet? Let’s not act like they don’t have the best QB in America and probably a top 2 running back. I also don’t think there’s a receiver in the league better than Rodgers either.
 
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3GC said:
Was DC in 2017 championship game.
Great job as i recall..
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He lost to FIU last year. Do you think he’d lose to them if they played this year? Also, not a single guy from that 2017 defense is playing tomorrow. And pretty much every single player form that Clemson offense has graduated. So once again. Why would that game have anything to do with this one?
 
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RedSquare said:
yes, interesting indeed.

as an aside,a wise football handicapper, maybe the smartest and most knowledgeable I ever met, once told me:

"NEVER bet the favorite if the line is more than one full TD (< 7.5) ..."

"NEVER bet the underdog unless you think they can outright win the game ..."

He wouldn't have touched this game with a ten foot pole.

(p.s. he died last year, at the age of 81. a wealthy man in his villa in the turks & caicos .... just saying)
Click to expand...

Agree on the underdog method but betting big favorites is very profitable if you’re smart about it. I mainly do it on Bama and OSU and aside from once or twice a year it works well, especially if they lose a game and are trying to impress the committee.
 
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