easy m money. i expect the odds to move to 5 once Perry balls out in the sprint game
That's not the way it works. The teams are considered on the same level. That's why you have sharp posters in this thread who estimated between LSU -2 and Miami -3.5.
Miami's power rating is not going to soar based on some indications or rumors from the spring game. Adjusters want to believe in some fanciful subjective world in which oddsmakers and sharps are making decisions on the fly and wildly changing their opinion. That's what the public does. The oddsmakers and sharps are exactly the opposite. They have a foundational point of view. If Miami somehow became a 5 point favorite based on N'Kosi Perry in the spring game, those sharps would say thank you very much I'll happily ignore it completely and take LSU +5 under big picture knowledge that the programs are not separated in ability level. They are making decisions based on 1000 or 10,000 similar examples, not anything specific to this game.
That's what the public often fails to grasp. The full time bettors don't care about your team one way or another. They are making decisions that logically will pay off if applied time after time. It is a grind, not an obsession. Fans are obsessed. Those betting groups didn't jump in on Miami heavily against Virginia Tech because they love the Canes personnel and the direction the program is headed. It was two basically equal programs with the road team favored. Those groups amended the line accordingly.
If you live in Las Vegas full time within the sports betting world, one aspect that is immediately striking is so little discussion about specific players. Nobody cares about players. When I appeared on the sports handicapping program on KDWN for years the other panel members and audience members would give me a funny look when I started mentioning certain players. It was like...what does that have to do with anything? They want to know about some situational or statistical angle that allows a hidden edge to one side or another. It is a 100% different world than the sports media presents. Those angles are never mentioned at all by the media.
Notice in this link that I have posted many times, there is not one peep about a player on either team. This is how the line is set. They do not talk about players or matchups or anything related:
The Making of the Line - Vegas Seven
Even if N'Kosi Perry becomes an awesome player, he doesn't have benefit of a doubt at this stage, and would not have that benefit of a doubt even if he shines in the spring game. Later in his career if he were a well known dominant player and suddenly became injured, now that could impact the spread on Canes games. There can be a quick adjustment for certain pivotal players, especially at quarterback. The adjustment is downward, not upward.
Otherwise the line is only adjusted radically upon a rash of injuries or absences. We're still far away from game day but the only logical method for the Canes to become a substantial favorite over LSU is for the Tigers to lose a high number of significant players, for whatever reason...injuries, suspension, etc.
