Lorenzo Lingard

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lol at comparing a sophomores weight to NFL guys. Gimmie a ******* break, kid wont play in the NFL for a minimum three years. Feel free to bump this if he's not at the magical weight of 210 at the combine.
 
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So many running backs that have done well at around 199 to 209 pounds in the NFL, not only now but historically. Let me throw some old names at you.

Barry Sanders
LaDainian Tomlinson
Marshall Faulk
Thurman Thomas
Curtis Thomas
Tony Dorsett
Walter Payton

None of those guys were over 210, some were just barely over 200.

I can make statistics say anything I want.

Unless you’re doing a multi factorial regression analysis, don’t come at me with third grade weight charts.

- You went back 40 years and named 7 RB's. 3 RB's have played since 2000, and 2 of those 3 are 210+
- Ladanian Tomlinson is 215 and I'm assuming you meant Curtis Martin who is 210.

There are plenty of awesome RB's under 210 who have played recently - McCaffery, Freeman, Darren Sproles, Jamal Charles, Chris Johnson, Tiki Barber - I could go on and on. I'm not saying there aren't. I'm just trying to show there a much higher % of starting RB's in the NFL that are 210+.

Let me try to explain this better - I said:

- If Lingard is 210+ it's a very good sign.
- I'm hoping he can get to 215. If his weight maxes out around 205, it's a little disappointing.
- Still a great RB, just a little lower ceiling

No one is saying he sucks if he's 205, or all RB's under 210 suck, or anything close to that. I'm saying I want us to start looking like an NFL team again, and Lingard will have a higher NFL ceiling if he can get to 210-215.

Here's why:

- 27 of 33 (82%) of the 33 RB's drafted in the first 3 Rounds of the last 5 NFL Drafts have been 210+
- 27 of 32 (84%) of the 32 NFL teams starting RB is 210+
- 41 of 50 (82%) of the Top 50 rushing yards leaders in the NFL last year weighed 210+

Feel free to point which of those stats you think have no validity.

Here are the 5 NFL Starting RB's under 210:

Aaron Jones - 208. Played 2 years and hasn't played more than 12 games in a season.
Devonta Freeman - 206. Pro Bowl player, but was injured all last year
Christian McCaffery - 205. Pro Bowl player. Will be interesting to see if he can handle 220 carries again this season
Jerrick McKinnon - 205. Never been a #1 guy, was injured all last season
Phillip Lindsay - 190. Played 1 year, and got injured in Week 15 that put him out for 5 months. Still isn't fully cleared yet.

4 of the 5 have injury concerns. They're great players - they just break down quicker and more often.

Lingard can be awesome college and NFL player if he maxes out at 205 - no question. But his power, durability, and ability to handle a larger workload at the NFL level will be less than is he can get to 210-215. Guys under 210 a large majority of the time are #2 or #3 change of pace RB's.
 
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Basically I want to start looking like an NFL team again.

210 lbs. is the rough cutoff of where a RB can be a #1 guy for an NFL team.

If Lingard can get to 210 without losing much speed it'll be much better for Miami, and much better for his NFL prospects.

We can't keep rolling out 200 lb starting RB's like Homer, Walton, Yearby, Duke as our norm.
You do realize hes a true sophomore and no where near grown into his body yet right? Some of yall just gotta stop. I get the point. No one wants us back where we need to be more. But the kid is one year removed from high school. U dont grow into your body unless you've been held back for atleast another year.
 
- You went back 40 years and named 7 RB's. 3 RB's have played since 2000, and 2 of those 3 are 210+
- Ladanian Tomlinson is 215 and I'm assuming you meant Curtis Martin who is 210. But 5 out of 7 ain't bad.

There are plenty of awesome RB's under 210 who have played recently - McCaffery, Freeman, Darren Sproles, Jamal Charles, Tiki Barber - I could go on and on. I'm not saying there aren't.

Let me try to explain this better - I said:

- If Lingard is 210+ it's a very good sign.
- I'm hoping he can get to 215. If his weight maxes out around 205, it's a little disappointing.
- Still a great RB, just a little lower ceiling

No one is saying he sucks if he's 205, or all RB's under 210 suck, or anything close to that. I'm saying I want us to start looking like an NFL team again, and Lingard will have a higher NFL ceiling if he can get to 210-215.

Here's why:

- 27 of 33 (82%) of the 33 RB's drafted in the first 3 Rounds of the last 5 NFL Drafts have been 210+
- 27 of 32 (84%) of the 32 NFL teams starting RB is 210+
- 41 of 50 (82%) of the Top 50 rushing yards leaders in the NFL last year weighed 210+

Feel free to point which of those stats you think have no validity.

Here are the 5 NFL Starting RB's under 210:

Aaron Jones - 208. Played 2 years and hasn't played more than 12 games in a season.
Devonta Freeman - 206. Pro Bowl player, but was injured all last year
Christian McCaffery - 205. Pro Bowl player. Will be interesting to see if he can handle 220 carries again this season
Jerrick McKinnon - 205. Never been a #1 guy, was injured all last season
Phillip Lindsay - 190. Played 1 year, and got injured in Week 15 that put him out for 5 months. Still isn't fully cleared yet.

4 of the 5 have injury concerns. They're great players - they just break down quicker and more often.

Lingard can be awesome college and NFL player if he maxes out at 205 - no question. But his power, durability, and ability to handle a larger workload at the NFL level will be less than is he can get to 210-215. Guys under 210 a large majority of the time are #2 or #3 change of pace RB's.

He's not even played his Soph season. Why are you trying to insist he's going to max out at 205?
 
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He's not even played his Soph season. Why are you trying to insist he's going to max out at 205?

I'm not insisting that at all.

Lingard was listed at 202 last season, and looks like he's put on more weight. So I'm interested to see what weight he'll play at as a Soph. I totally agree he can still continue to put on weight past his Soph season.

What I'm trying to say is:

"IF" he is already at 210-215, that's a great sign because he'll already look what an NFL starting RB usually looks like.
"IF" over the course of his career, he can't get above 205, he can still be an awesome RB. But his ceiling is a little lower. Not a lot, just a little bit.

I felt this exact same way about Travis Homer - who I'm a huge fan of. Homer was listed at 5-11/195 in HS. I thought he had the frame to get to the 210-215 range in college. He ended up at 201 and was drafted in the 6th Round. I was a little disappointed because as good as a RB as he is, I feel like he could've been even better and drafted higher if he were 210+.

I'm not trying to say I'm 100% right on this, it's JMO. But I'm trying to give stats to show why it's my opinion. But I do realize I probably just come off sounding like a **** most of the time.
 
Whatever weight he ends up at is fine as long at it is a weight where he’s atlerically/physically comfortable, and can max perform at.

Arbitrary weight cutoffs are simplistic and irrelevant.

You can throw down another 1,000 word meaningless essay and it won’t change the fact that unless you do a statistically valid analysis correlating weight to performance, it’s all just your bullshlt and guesswork.

In other words, Lo is fine where he’s at, and as long as he keeps working he’ll improve. No need to worry about weight when you’ve got a worker.

Have another bag of Cheetos, weight guru.
 
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Cam Harris a bowling ball

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Whatever weight he ends up at is fine as long at it is a weight where he’s atlerically/physically comfortable, and can max perform at.

Arbitrary weight cutoffs are simplistic and irrelevant.

You can throw down another 1,000 word meaningless essay and it won’t change the fact that unless you do a statistically valid analysis correlating weight to performance, it’s all just your bullshlt and guesswork.

In other words, Lo is fine where he’s at, and as long as he keeps working he’ll improve. No need to worry about weight when you’ve got a worker.

Have another bag of Cheetos, weight guru.

Again...I'm not saying 210 is a weight Lingard HAS to get to

I'm saying....projecting to the NFL....210 is "roughly" the weight where a RB can start carrying a full workload "much more often" - therefore giving him a more value/potential/higher ceiling. So I would "like" to see him get to 210+. Statistics back this, it's not arbitrary.

Duke probably played somewhere between 195-205 at Miami and was awesome. But his size lowers his NFL ceiling. Lingard can play at 205 and be awesome. He'll just have a lower NFL ceiling than if he were 215.

Here's a chart from Brian Burke who does Analytics at ESPN.

His Top 3 NFL Combine predictors for NFL success for a RB are in order:

1) 40 Time
2) Weight
3) 3 Cone Drill

87343



It' best to be Big & Fast. If you're not Big, you better be Fast. If you're not Fast, you better be Big. If you're not Big or Fast - good luck.
 
Again...I'm not saying 210 is a weight Lingard HAS to get to

I'm saying....projecting to the NFL....210 is "roughly" the weight where a RB can start carrying a full workload "much more often" - therefore giving him a more value/potential/higher ceiling. So I would "like" to see him get to 210+. Statistics back this, it's not arbitrary.

Duke probably played somewhere between 195-205 at Miami and was awesome. But his size lowers his NFL ceiling. Lingard can play at 205 and be awesome. He'll just have a lower NFL ceiling than if he were 215.

Here's a chart from Brian Burke who does Analytics at ESPN.

His Top 3 NFL Combine predictors for NFL success for a RB are in order:

1) 40 Time
2) Weight
3) 3 Cone Drill

View attachment 87343


It' best to be Big & Fast. If you're not Big, you better be Fast. If you're not Fast, you better be Big. If you're not Big or Fast - good luck.

You’re relentless.

I’m a real world stats guy.

Your info is anecdotal, not statistically valid, therefore I am 100% unconvinced that the few pounds you’re talking about makes a difference.

Big, fast, ok, you forgot shifty, and good vision.

You can be not big, not fast, just fast enough, and if you have superior vision and shiftiness and cutting ability, make good decisions, you can be a very good running back maybe an all NFL type running back.

We can just keep going round and round
 
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