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June Commit Predictions

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I just don’t understand why all of the other top 20ish teams have numerous commits and we have exactly one-and a kid from Georgia at that. It’s not like Manny can tell top players-I will let you know if you made the cut like Saban and Dabo can.
 
TpaBayFlyFisher said:
I just don’t understand why all of the other top 20ish teams have numerous commits and we have exactly one-and a kid from Georgia at that. It’s not like Manny can tell top players-I will let you know if you made the cut like Saban and Dabo can.
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Because there is a decade-plus track record of Miami being near the top or even leading CFB in decommits and an endless number of articles making fun of the program for having all those commits bail. Adding to that is the fact that recruits (justifiably) get upset when they don't get offered because someone else got their spot, and then the school circles back to the plan B guy after plan A guy publicly clowned the school and flipped. I guarantee FSU is going to lose a number of their top recruits, and you can check back here afterwards to see how many fans claim that it proves that FSU is a dumpster fire and no one wants to play for them. Diaz is being much smarter about recruiting. He isn't telling the kids I will let you know if you made the cut- he's telling them, "We'll announce it when you've decided to stop taking visits and are 100% sure of your decision."
I still find it hilarious that the UF recruit the other day said that he is committing there because it looks like the best decision "for now" and he is still taking all his OVs. I figure Mullen doesn't care since he's going to be leaving anyways.
 
TimeBum said:
Because there is a decade-plus track record of Miami being near the top or even leading CFB in decommits and an endless number of articles making fun of the program for having all those commits bail. Adding to that is the fact that recruits (justifiably) get upset when they don't get offered because someone else got their spot, and then the school circles back to the plan B guy after plan A guy publicly clowned the school and flipped. I guarantee FSU is going to lose a number of their top recruits, and you can check back here afterwards to see how many fans claim that it proves that FSU is a dumpster fire and no one wants to play for them. Diaz is being much smarter about recruiting. He isn't telling the kids I will let you know if you made the cut- he's telling them, "We'll announce it when you've decided to stop taking visits and are 100% sure of your decision."
I still find it hilarious that the UF recruit the other day said that he is committing there because it looks like the best decision "for now" and he is still taking all his OVs. I figure Mullen doesn't care since he's going to be leaving anyways.
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I fully understand your analysis. But, be honest. Is it not odd that only one guy from Georgia has met Manny’s “conditions“ to announce they have committed? None of our “peers” find themselves in this position. Our last class, which is clearly a high quality one, was not built using this revolutionary method. Could it just as likely be that none of our top recruits have committed because they are interested in other schools? I think we will know a great deal if our first few commitments are from “plan B” types of kids. That means we are striking out in private. But, we are striking out nevertheless. I hope Manny is playing 4D chess and not being viewed as a coach who underperforms.
 
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TpaBayFlyFisher said:
I just don’t understand why all of the other top 20ish teams have numerous commits and we have exactly one-and a kid from Georgia at that. It’s not like Manny can tell top players-I will let you know if you made the cut like Saban and Dabo can.
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People have tried to explain it multiple times.

We have a handful of silents, and Manny has preferred not to have a ton of decommits this year. We gave an early greenlight to 2 DLs who did not decommit to take other offers, they were simply the victims of a coaching/philosophy change.

The more important issue to consider is whether you can name any recruit that we LOST due to waiting. Because, if not, then all of our targets are still on the board (or are silents to us anyhow).
 
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grover said:
Why all the concern about Kelly? I thought he was leaning our way. Has he indicated he's listening to Clemson or Georgia? Or is it CIS PTSD?
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It's weird, they want top kids but don't want to have battle top programs for them. It doesn't work that way lol
 
TpaBayFlyFisher said:
I fully understand your analysis. But, be honest. Is it not odd that only one guy from Georgia has met Manny’s “conditions“ to announce they have committed? None of our “peers” find themselves in this position. Our last class, which is clearly a high quality one, was not built using this revolutionary method. Could it just as likely be that none of our top recruits have committed because they are interested in other schools? I think we will know a great deal if our first few commitments are from “plan B” types of kids. That means we are striking out in private. But, we are striking out nevertheless. I hope Manny is playing 4D chess and not being viewed as a coach who underperforms.
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For the 21 class the coaches actually got to recruit and see them perform before the pandemic started. This year no! I actually like the approach.

This class needs to fit perfectly with the last two classes. With the seniors getting an extra year, this is basically depth being built for the 20 & 21 class who technically are true freshman this season.
 
What I think is being overlooked is the fact that most south Florida kids are becoming mercenaries for theses SEC schools. They wait it out to see how their vi$it’s go and then decide. I mean think about it, you can be a mid tier kid, but if early nsd comes and goes and there are four or five schools still in need of your position, you just became much more valuable. We’ve seen it the last few years. Mid tier kids being treated like 5*s because they are the best of what left after early nsd.
That’s what scares me. I trust Manny on his approach, I don’t trust these local kids to silently hold to their word of something better $$$$ comes along. Which has also happened to us along with the decommit train.
I’m sure it’ll work itself out, but just like the articles about our decommits eventually your going to see an “why won’t any kids commit to UM?” And that could really backfire.
 
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Why do we currently have one recruit committed? Long story short : South Florida is down at most offensive positions this year so we’re after a bunch of out of state guys. COVID has made it hard to get out of town guys on campus and the long dead period doesn’t help. Couple that with an almost complete overhaul of the defensive staff that shifted a lot of the recruiting targets and the fact that this staff doesn’t take commits over a year out.

The good news is, the dead period is almost over, we’re going to have a ton of guys on campus in June and we should see dominoes start falling thereafter. The commits usually come in bunches, especially after big, on campus events. I don’t think they’ll be able to pull a top ten class though because like it or not, South Florida is our bread and butter and there’s just not the normal level of blue chip talent this year. We’ll end up with 17-20 signees and likely a few more transfer kids. Maybe even pull a few surprises if they can manage a successful season
 
DTP said:
Why do we currently have one recruit committed? Long story short : South Florida is down at most offensive positions this year so we’re after a bunch of out of state guys. COVID has made it hard to get out of town guys on campus and the long dead period doesn’t help. Couple that with an almost complete overhaul of the defensive staff that shifted a lot of the recruiting targets and the fact that this staff doesn’t take commits over a year out.

The good news is, the dead period is almost over, we’re going to have a ton of guys on campus in June and we should see dominoes start falling thereafter. The commits usually come in bunches, especially after big, on campus events. I don’t think they’ll be able to pull a top ten class though because like it or not, South Florida is our bread and butter and there’s just not the normal level of blue chip talent this year. We’ll end up with 17-20 signees and likely a few more transfer kids. Maybe even pull a few surprises if they can manage a successful season
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Very unlikely we get top 10 based on the numbers but as long as we fall between 11-15 I’m okay with it.
 
luciano.8 said:
Very unlikely we get top 10 based on the numbers but as long as we fall between 11-15 I’m okay with it.
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I’m thinking more like 15-20 but it’s more about which kids they sign than class rank. It’s really thought to get a highly ranked class if you only sign 17 kids. But if most of those 17 kids can play, I’m cool.
 
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DTP said:
I’m thinking more like 15-20 but it’s more about which kids they sign than class rank. It’s really thought to get a highly ranked class if you only sign 17 kids. But if most of those 17 kids can play, I’m cool.
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With a class that size with have very little room for error on our evals, each guy taken must be 100 % Miami caliber.
 
DTP said:
I’m thinking more like 15-20 but it’s more about which kids they sign than class rank. It’s really thought to get a highly ranked class if you only sign 17 kids. But if most of those 17 kids can play, I’m cool.
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Exactly. We are not at the level where a Clemson or Bama takes 17 and it's like 50% 5*'s, 40% 4*'s and the rest is whatever lol.
 
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