Now that the dust has settled from the Duke lawsuit, analysts across the country have taken notice of Miami's retooled offense. J.D. PicKell and Kaiden Smith of on3 = detailed their expectations for the Miami offense:
Kaiden Smith:
We mentioned they add Darian Mensah to the fold. Cooper Barkate joins him. They’re stepping into an offense that brings back the entire running back room led by Mark Fletcher. The best freshman in the country, Malachi Tony is back. There will be some new faces on the offensive line, but all things considered, what are you expecting from this Miami offense this year? It feels retooled almost everywhere.
JD PicKell:
I look at what the last two years were. Last year, Miami averaged right around 30 points a game. The year before, with Cam Ward, they were around 43 a game. That’s a pretty solid delta. Obviously, Miami fans will take the year where you play for a national championship, have more around your quarterback, and have a defense to pair with it.
Duke last year with Mensah averaged 34 a game. So I’m looking at this and thinking, quarterbacks get to Miami—à la Cam Ward, à la Carson Beck—and they seem to get better. They play better. That’s a big ask of Mensah, who was second in touchdowns and yards across college football last year, but if I’m trusting that trend, I think Miami is going to score right around 40 points a game this year.
I also think the ACC presents opportunities for Miami to have some big offensive days. They’re going to win some shootouts. During the playoff last year, we kept saying, “If they can make it gross, make it a rock fight, and Carson Beck doesn’t have to throw it more than 20 times, they’ll find a way to win.” I feel the opposite about Miami offensively this year. Let’s go NASCAR fast. Let’s throw the ball all over the yard.
You still have the run game built in, but Shannon Dawson and those air-raid principles are very much on the table with Mensah, with Barkate, with Malachi Tony. It’s all there for Miami to be much closer to what they were in 2024 with Cam Ward, just now with Darian Mensah and all that firepower. I think they’re going to win shootouts. I think they’ll score right around 40 a game. It’s going to be a lot of fun to be a Miami fan this year.
Kaiden Smith:
We had five offenses last year average 40 a game. When you look at them—Notre Dame, Indiana—you see how blowouts help get you there. If Miami’s blowing teams out with offensive firepower, they could definitely end up in that group.
The thing that excites me most is the balance. Offensively, Mensah can throw the ball all over the yard. Come playoff time, the ball is going to be in his hands. The fact that Miami can threaten defenses just as much with the pass as the run is scary.
Mark Fletcher falling forward for five a carry—you have to account for that. Add the weapons outside and Mensah’s ability to attack every blade of grass and every zone coverage gap, and it can get surgical really fast. Defensive coordinators are going to have headaches trying to figure out how many guys are in the box versus defending the pass. It feels like an all-hands-on-deck situation, and it’s only February.
JD PicKell:
It’s going to be nasty. When you think about the arrows for Miami’s portal quarterbacks over the years—Cam Ward comes in, arrow pointing up, but the team had won seven games and people were questioning Mario Cristobal. Ward hadn’t played true Power Four football at Washington State, but he shows up and Miami takes off.
Then Carson Beck enters. His arrow wasn’t pointing up—there were questions about surgery, about whether Miami missed its window—and they go make a national championship game. Now with Mensah, the arrow is absolutely pointing up. Miami as a program is pointing up. This feels like the crescendo of momentum for both the portal quarterback and the direction of the program under Cristobal.
Kaiden Smith:
Duke was a frustrating watch last year. Mensah wasn’t the reason they lost games. Special teams were bad at times. Turnovers. They shot themselves in the foot constantly. I faded them almost every week, and they still made a title game with Mensah doing his thing.
Now he’s going to a program that just made a playoff run by doing the opposite—zero penalties against Ohio State, winning the turnover battle in multiple playoff games. Pair that discipline with quarterback firepower, and that’s dangerous.
Last question for you. Mensah staying in-conference reminds me of Brendan Sorsby going to Texas Tech—familiar defenses, familiar faces, but now at the premier roster in the league. Do you think the advantage lies with the quarterback or with the defenses that know them?
JD PicKell:
That’s a great question. I’d love to hear it from a defensive perspective, but my thought is this: the defenses know the quarterback, but they don’t know him in this new system. You’re not reinventing Mensah, but you’re expanding what he can do.
Same with Sorsby. A great DC can study tendencies—pressure responses, zone versus man—but I lean toward the quarterback having the advantage when he moves to the premier roster in the conference. Miami in the ACC, Texas Tech in the Big 12. I think the offense has the edge.
Kaiden Smith:
I agree. With Sorsby, you may have to study how Texas Tech designs quarterback runs now. With Mensah, Miami’s screen game, quick passing, and run game were already dangerous in the playoff, and now you unlock more with his skill set compared to Carson Beck.
It’s a wrinkle nightmare. Tendencies you thought you knew can flip on you fast when you have quarterbacks who are simply better and can punish mistakes with their arms and legs. It’s going to be fascinating to track moving forward.
JD PicKell:
It’s about to get wrinkly—in Miami and in Lubbock. A lot of “Whoa, we didn’t know they had that” moments coming.
