To clarify....
I think King is a beast. He's a dynamic runner and good passer. He'll have some huge passing games this year. He'll hit plenty of passes this year I feel he missed vs UAB. I'm in no way saying he can't or won't do those things, I'm saying he will. I'm just concerned the passing game will be more of a struggle than we originally thought, and the big passing plays might not happen as often as we'll need them.
My feeling on win totals is based on what I saw overall as a whole on Offense & Defense. This is in no way all on King. Just focusing on the Offense - King looked like the playmaker he is. TE's are stacked. RB's looked great, but I realize they always look great against CUSA teams. I like our talent at WR's - but I have doubts any of them step up as a real playmaker. OL is a work in progress, and we're already making changes to the starters. How all these things combined looked against UAB made me think we won't hit the high end of what I thought was possible this year.
With the combo of Lashlee & King - I was expecting to see a little more right out of the gate. But outside of last years debacle - our overall yds, points scored, number of plays, yards per play - all that looked no different than usual when we play CUSA teams. And the reasons given as to why - It's just the first game, they're rusty, we had less practice time because of COVID, it's a new system, we'll get better as the year goes on, UAB is actually a good defense, Lashlee was holding back - while all these may be valid, outside of COVID, it just sounds like the same things we say every year. Believe me, I hope to **** I'm wrong.
Vegas has our win total at 7.5 for the season. I was thinking 9 wins, so I was optimistic before UAB, and now have adjusted to 7-8 wins - right in line with Vegas. I don't feel this is some major shift or over reactive doomsday prediction. If we blow out Louisville, I may change back to 9 wins. If we beat Louisville in a close game, they beat us close, or if they blow us out - I'll stay at 7-8 wins. Other than a low scoring defensive battle - I wouldn't be surprised at any outcome, or if either team crushes the other this weekend.
So I want nothing more than to kill Louisville and see all the "over-reactors" like myself get called out as total idiots next week. And if it goes the other way - there will be way more people being way more critical than anything I'm saying now. But I'll feel the same as I do now.