Interesting objective slant on team/bowl

[OrangeBowlMagic]

One of my favorite CFB writers is Thor Nystrom (dope name, too) and IMO whatever he publishes for Rotoworld CFB is must-read, mostly if you gamble on the sport. He has a lengthy read on the bowl games today and tomorrow you can check out on Rotoworld, but naturally I was most interested in reading the Miami breakdown.

At the end, he has a couple paragraphs that are most interesting. A lot of what I’ve been saying the last 2 years. Basically, Miami wasn’t as good as last year’s performance suggested (#2 in the county for a time) and this year wasn’t as bad as what’s perceived by people who see W-L record as the singular barometer for a football team. Miami got a few bounces to go its way last year. This year, many went the other way. But we’re somewhere between last year and this year. Here’s his thoughts (by the way, he expects Miami to roll Wisky regardless of who plays QB):

Not only all that, but I’m here to tell you that Miami is better than its 7-5 record. Miami was an eight- or nine-win team that dropped multiple games the boxscore says it should have won. In fact, the Hurricanes finished with a 60% or higher postgame win expectancy in three of its five losses. That’s absurd.

Blame coaching if you want, but the numbers don’t lie: Miami objectively played well enough to win all three games. The Hurricanes’ second-order win total of 8.8 tells us that S&P+ believes this team is closer to 9-3 quality than 7-5. The Canes match up well enough in this game that a normalization of luck alone could lead to a double-digit win against a Wisconsin team that looks a lot different than we thought it’d look in August.

 

[Tad Footeball]

Thor Nystrom is a phenomenal name and he might even be right but you're always going to have a tall order of an argument to make regarding balls bouncing the wrong way when a yuge overlying issue with a team is mediocre to sometimes atrocious QB play. People will tend to dismiss any "woulda/shouldas" when you have no consistency at that position.

 

[jsy]

you are what your record says you are

 

[The Owl]

IMO whatever he publishes for Rotoworld CFB is must-read, mostly if you gamble on the sport.

S&P+

Thanks for the comedic relief.

The Canes match up well enough in this game that a normalization of luck alone could lead to a double-digit win against a Wisconsin team that looks a lot different than we thought it’d look in August.

Why is the line moving in favor of Wisconsin as it gets closer to kickoff? We shall see where this line closes tomorrow.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Thanks for the comedic relief.

The world of analytics is passing you by, my friend.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

you are what your record says you are

Right. This thread was intended for people who can talk all aspects of ball so thanks for the contribution but there’s probably other threads better suited for you.

 

[The Owl]

The world of analytics is passing you by, my friend.

Hahaha not at all. You just have no clue what you are talking about. The way the line moves at Pinnacle is more important than literally anything you typed.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Thor Nystrom is a phenomenal name and he might even be right but you're always going to have a tall order of an argument to make regarding balls bouncing the wrong way when a yuge overlying issue with a team is mediocre to sometimes atrocious QB play. People will tend to dismiss any "woulda/shouldas" when you have no consistency at that position.

Agree with this totally. And I’ve said it consistently all year. Richt gets no pass here in the least...he should have been better than what he was with the pieces he does have, it’s his team, it’s his offense, and he’s not getting the most out of his talent. This is all on him, it’s his show, his kids, his scheme. But as bad as everything seems, I am firmly of the belief that if somehow, some way this team had just a decent to pretty good QB, the attitude surrounding this program right now would be VASTLY different.

It’s the most important position in sports, period. So this isn’t exactly cutting edge opinion. The team with the better QB usually wins. But I think it was magnified at Miami this year. For example, a good QB doesn’t help FSU much. They have myriad problems, and need massive help basically everywhere. I think Miami really was 1 player away from being a very good football team, even with Richt’s archaic system. Not national championship good by any means, but much better than 7-5.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Hahaha not at all. You just have no clue what you are talking about. The way the line moves is more important than literally anything you typed.

This was not a thread about gambling. I just found his observations about the team interesting while he was breaking the game down. I didn’t say a word about line moves.

 

[troyskiles]

Thanks for the comedic relief.



Why is the line moving in favor of Wisconsin as it gets closer to kickoff? We shall see where this line closes tomorrow.

Possible Perry suspension will move it. Losing GWIII moved it.

 

[The Owl]

IMO whatever he publishes for Rotoworld CFB is must-read, mostly if you gamble on the sport.

This was not a thread about gambling. I just found his observations about the team interesting while he was breaking the game down. I didn’t say a word about line moves.

 

[Savannahcane]

The defense is closer to 10-2 quality. The offense and special teams is closer to 6-6. Everyone on the outside looking in knew changes had to be made in those areas. If the team had good punting and a competent offense we're not too different than say LSU.

 

[Tad Footeball]

Agree with this totally. And I’ve said it consistently all year. Richt gets no pass here in the least...he should have been better than what he was with the pieces he does have, it’s his team, it’s his offense, and he’s not getting the most out of his talent. This is all on him, it’s his show, his kids, his scheme. But as bad as everything seems, I am firmly of the belief that if somehow, some way this team had just a decent to pretty good QB, the attitude surrounding this program right now would be VASTLY different.

It’s the most important position in sports, period. So this isn’t exactly cutting edge opinion. The team with the better QB usually wins. But I think it was magnified at Miami this year. For example, a good QB doesn’t help FSU much. They have myriad problems, and need massive help basically everywhere. I think Miami really was 1 player away from being a very good football team, even with Richt’s archaic system. Not national championship good by any means, but much better than 7-5.

Spot on.

Even with Rick's schematic deficiencies you're absolutely correct when also factoring in the level of actual competition in the ACC this year too.

A good QB makes us a 10 win team. I just think to be a national championship level team under Rick that we'd need to stumble into an ultra elite college QB and I'm not sure a Matt Stafford type is walking through his door again let alone being developed here.

 

[duke4heisman]

Agree with this totally. And I’ve said it consistently all year. Richt gets no pass here in the least...he should have been better than what he was with the pieces he does have, it’s his team, it’s his offense, and he’s not getting the most out of his talent. This is all on him, it’s his show, his kids, his scheme. But as bad as everything seems, I am firmly of the belief that if somehow, some way this team had just a decent to pretty good QB, the attitude surrounding this program right now would be VASTLY different.

It’s the most important position in sports, period. So this isn’t exactly cutting edge opinion. The team with the better QB usually wins. But I think it was magnified at Miami this year. For example, a good QB doesn’t help FSU much. They have myriad problems, and need massive help basically everywhere. I think Miami really was 1 player away from being a very good football team, even with Richt’s archaic system. Not national championship good by any means, but much better than 7-5.

You must not have seen our turnstile OL and butter fingers WRs

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Possible Perry suspension will move it. Losing GWIII moved it.

There has been no movement due to the QB situation

 

[The Owl]

Possible Perry suspension will move it. Losing GWIII moved it.

It had already started moving before Richt announced Rosier.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

You must not have seen our turnstile OL and butter fingers WRs

OL wasn’t nearly as bad as people made it out to be. Wasn’t good, but if you want to see a turnstile OL, watch an FSU game. People just pile on when they don’t see success. The fact is very, very few people can correctly evaluate offensive linemen. They don’t get a pass either and again i said this wasn’t a NC team or anywhere close, but a competent QB masks a ton of problems, OL included. I don’t remember coming out of a game all year and saying, “Miami lost that game because they couldn’t protect the QB”.

I do remember several times saying, “Miami lost that game because the QB is supremely undertalented, unprepared, inaccurate, and clueless.”

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Spot on.

Even with Rick's schematic deficiencies you're absolutely correct when also factoring in the level of actual competition in the ACC this year too.

A good QB makes us a 10 win team. I just think to be a national championship level team under Rick that we'd need to stumble into an ultra elite college QB and I'm not sure a Matt Stafford type is walking through his door again let alone being developed here.

Also do need to upgrade the OL, but it wasn’t the unmitigated disaster that the casual fan thinks it was as I mentioned above. Not having 82 was a killer. Playing true freshmen TEs is not conducive to Top 5 type success. There are holes, and I know you agree. Just saying put a competent QB on this team and don’t have him Snapchat himself smashing chicks from behind and pouring money on himself...i.e. be a hint of leader, and there’s a ton less vitrol around here. I know what the goal is here always, and we’re not close, but we’re 1 player away from being a lot happier fan base than the current situation.

 

[BWCD]

All those analytics told me was what we all already knew - we did things to lose games that by all rights we should have won. That's what poorly coached teams tend to do.

Now...credit for winning the last 2 games, but those were games that we should have won...so we bucked the trend started at UVA and culminating at GT.

Wisky is 7-5, just like us - as was most of the Coastal. Here's my way of thinking...if we play more like we did against VT/Pitt, and less like we did against UVA/BC/Duke/GT, then we have a shot to win. Here's the bad news: at the most important position on the field, we're playing Rosier. Rosier, out of those games, played the most against UVA/BC/Duke...all losses where we struggled mightily offensively. So, we're playing a QB that struggled in those games against teams with similar records to Wisky. Not a good sign.

 

[scrantoncane]

If Gerald Willis was going, I’d take Miami vs Wisc backup qb. No willis means I punt.