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Interesting Carson Beck article from David Hale

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Link to the full article below, which has a bunch of cool notes (Bain on Beck, UGA staff sources telling Hale they didn't want to lose Beck). Below is a quick stat analysis which matches the eye test:

What if I told you one of these QBs is getting love as a potential No. 1 draft pick for 2026 and the other is coming off a "down year"?

QB A: 82.3 QBR, 28 TD passes, 12 INTs, 64.7% completions, 7.78 yards per attempt
QB B: 79.1 QBR, 29 TD passes, 12 INTs, 64.2% completions, 7.72 yards per attempt

So, who's the hot shot and who's spiraling downward? QB B is LSU's Nussmeier, who's a favorite in the way-too-early mock drafts. QB A is Miami's Beck, who was supposed to be a possible No. 1 pick until his 2024 performance drew heavy criticism.

OK, one more.

QB A: 72% completions, 9.45 yards per pass, 24 touchdown passes, 3,941 passing yards
QB B: 73% completions, 8.74 yards per pass, 29 touchdown passes, 3,917 passing yards

QB B looks a tick better, right? Well, QB A is Beck's 2023 season at Georgia, when he was lauded as one of the nation's best. QB B is Beck's 2024 season at Georgia, if you adjust his stat line to the same rate of drops and contested catches by his receiving corps in 2024 that he had in 2023.

substack.com

A little help from his friends

Carson Beck's numbers were down in 2024. How much of it was actually due to a lackluster supporting cast?
substack.com substack.com
 
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One thing I like about Hale is no bias. He was on a pod with the Notre Dame Athletic guys and they spent a good chunk of time on the game. I can’t remember if it’s Matt LaFortuna or Pete Sampson, but he keeps telling people you have no clue what the atomosphere is like at Hard Rock until you have experienced it. Loudest venue in CFB on a night like we had in 2017.
 
bobbydigius said:
What those numbers dont tell you is that Beck had 12 TDs and 12 INTs in conference play. It was 14 and 12 if you want to consider the Clemson game into the equation.
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Well if you adjust his uniform from Georgia to Miami he goes from cheeks to we fuccin right quick...

Need Beck to be a high end pick up. Shame we did not surround him with a WR1 or more help in that room after losing so much.
 
bobbydigius said:
What those numbers dont tell you is that Beck had 12 TDs and 12 INTs in conference play. It was 14 and 12 if you want to consider the Clemson game into the equation.
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Crazy thing is he threw basically all his picks in like 4 games. Had 3 games with 3 picks and another with 2. The other crazy thing is they went 3-1 in those games and beck almost brought them back vs bama
 
Bender said:
Subtract Mike Bobo.
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I think that does make a big difference. Bobo is trash but that said, Beck looked fine under Bobo in 23. I dont think Beck is trash and I personally think he should farewell against the clear dip in talent of the ACC. Its ACC chip or bust here. Im just pointing out that those numbers dont tell the full story and reality is that Beck did take a major step back in 24, that isnt some made up narrative.
 
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bobbydigius said:
I think that does make a big difference. Bobo is trash but that said, Beck looked fine under Bobo in 23. I dont think Beck is trash and I personally think he should farewell against the clear dip in talent of the ACC. Its ACC chip or bust here. Im just pointing out that those numbers dont tell the full story and reality is that Beck did take a major step back in 24, that isnt some made up narrative.
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I think having Bowers in a **** scheme helped.

Beck had nothing outside of him, really. Bobos offense is terrible and the receivers couldn't catch a latinas *** if it fell on their face.
 
Bender said:
I think having Bowers in a **** scheme helped.

Beck had nothing outside of him, really. Bobos offense is terrible and the receivers couldn't catch a latinas *** if it fell on their face.
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Well, dont forget Ladd. Its why it was so important to grab a true WR1 through the portal. Beck has his faults but we know that if he has the weapons, he can be very very good. Do we have enough is the question? We really need JoJo or somebody to take that next step.
 
bobbydigius said:
Well, dont forget Ladd. Its why it was so important to grab a true WR1 through the portal. Beck has his faults but we know that if he has the weapons, he can be very very good. Do we have enough is the question? We really need JoJo or somebody to take that next step.
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This but Ladd wasn’t a #1 guy at uga but he was dependable. That’s the #1 issue. He didn’t have a dependable wr last year. Watching the picks he threw they were basically all forced throws. Dude was throwing into double and triple coverage.

That’s one of the reasons I haven’t been overly concerned about it because that’s something you can easily correct. He isn’t a guy who just always put the ball in harms way. On top of that he had no running game and the o-line took a step back. A qb needs help to be successful
 
bobbydigius said:
Well, dont forget Ladd. Its why it was so important to grab a true WR1 through the portal. Beck has his faults but we know that if he has the weapons, he can be very very good. Do we have enough is the question? We really need JoJo or somebody to take that next step.
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Ladd was hurt tho dude had like 470 yards. I get the talent but Bowers was the big reason for his success. Lofton suppose to be that dude so hopefully hes that for Beck! The other point someone made the 12td 12 picks in conference play. Welp everyone always hollering the ACC isnt the SEC. I agree on the so we have enough. We just dont know for sure. Jojo seems like he can be a number 1 Daniel's has done it hopefully he comes back strong. I really really like Marion!! Thats my D factor this year on offense. The Cincy dude should be dependable and the youngins gonna have to step up! Personally i think Beck has a big year and is the #1 pick unless the Manning politics come in to play which i doubt it with him being a one year starter. We will find out early thats for sure!
 
From another David Hale article today:

QB comparison

What if I told you one of these QBs is getting love as a potential No. 1 draft pick for 2026 and the other is coming off a "down year"?

QB A: 82.3 QBR, 28 TD passes, 12 INTs, 64.7% completions, 7.78 yards per attempt
QB B: 79.1 QBR, 29 TD passes, 12 INTs, 64.2% completions, 7.72 yards per attempt

So, who's the hot shot and who's spiraling downward? QB B is LSU's Nussmeier, who's a favorite in the way-too-early mock drafts. QB A is Miami's Beck, who was supposed to be a possible No. 1 pick until his 2024 performance drew heavy criticism.

OK, one more.

QB A: 72% completions, 28 total TDs, six picks, 9.5 yards-per-pass, 3,941 yards of total offense
QB B: 71% completions, 32 total TDs, 10 picks, 8.4 yards-per-pass, 3,784 yards of total offense

Pretty darn close, right? Well, QB A is Beck's 2023 season at Georgia, when he was lauded as one of the nation's best. QB B is Beck's 2024 season at Georgia, if you adjust his stat line to the same rate of drops and contested catches by his receiving corps in 2024 than he had in 2023.

www.espn.com

Ranking all 136 FBS QB situations into tiers ahead of the 2025 season

From Clemson to Kennesaw State, David Hale ranks all 136 FBS school quarterbacks into tiers.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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Cane_J15 said:
Ladd was hurt tho dude had like 470 yards. I get the talent but Bowers was the big reason for his success. Lofton suppose to be that dude so hopefully hes that for Beck! The other point someone made the 12td 12 picks in conference play. Welp everyone always hollering the ACC isnt the SEC. I agree on the so we have enough. We just dont know for sure. Jojo seems like he can be a number 1 Daniel's has done it hopefully he comes back strong. I really really like Marion!! Thats my D factor this year on offense. The Cincy dude should be dependable and the youngins gonna have to step up! Personally i think Beck has a big year and is the #1 pick unless the Manning politics come in to play which i doubt it with him being a one year starter. We will find out early thats for sure!
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In 2023, McConkey or Bowers didn't play in 8 of their 12 regular season games.

Both those kids are awesome players, but as usual, reality gets completely rewritten to shape narratives and for some reason it's been twisted to make people think that Beck is an average player who was carried entirely by Bowers and Ladd for the 2023 season.

Again, they only played 4 games together.

Here are Beck's numbers in games without McConkey, Bowers, or both:

21/31 for 294 and 1 TD, 0 INTs in Week 1 (no McConkey)
23/30 for 283 and 2 TDs, 1 INT in Week 2 (no McConkey)
27/35 for 269 and 0 TDs, 0 INT in Week 3 (no McConkey)
22/32 for 338 and 3 TDs, 0 INT in Week 4 (no McConkey)
19/28 for 315 and 2 TDs, 0 INT in Week 8 (no Bowers)
21/32 for 254 and 2 TDs, 0 INTs in Week 9 (no Bowers)
24/30 for 298 and 3 TDs, 0 INTs in Week 11 (no McConkey)
13/20 for 175 and 1 TD, 1 INT in Week 12 (no McConkey or Bowers)

One subpar game, last game of the regular season against GT. The rest of the year, he was pretty ******* good. In 8 of the 12 regular season games, one of the 2 best WRs didn't play. The difference, IMO, was the running game in 2023 vs 2024. Miami should be able to run the ball very effectively in 2025 for Beck.
 
bobbydigius said:
I think that does make a big difference. Bobo is trash but that said, Beck looked fine under Bobo in 23. I dont think Beck is trash and I personally think he should farewell against the clear dip in talent of the ACC. Its ACC chip or bust here. Im just pointing out that those numbers dont tell the full story and reality is that Beck did take a major step back in 24, that isnt some made up narrative.
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This is way too level headed of a take

Reported
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
In 2023, McConkey or Bowers didn't play in 8 of their 12 regular season games.

Both those kids are awesome players, but as usual, reality gets completely rewritten to shape narratives and for some reason it's been twisted to make people think that Beck is an average player who was carried entirely by Bowers and Ladd for the 2023 season.

Again, they only played 4 games together.

Here are Beck's numbers in games without McConkey, Bowers, or both:

21/31 for 294 and 1 TD, 0 INTs in Week 1 (no McConkey)
23/30 for 283 and 2 TDs, 1 INT in Week 2 (no McConkey)
27/35 for 269 and 0 TDs, 0 INT in Week 3 (no McConkey)
22/32 for 338 and 3 TDs, 0 INT in Week 4 (no McConkey)
19/28 for 315 and 2 TDs, 0 INT in Week 8 (no Bowers)
21/32 for 254 and 2 TDs, 0 INTs in Week 9 (no Bowers)
24/30 for 298 and 3 TDs, 0 INTs in Week 11 (no McConkey)
13/20 for 175 and 1 TD, 1 INT in Week 12 (no McConkey or Bowers)

One subpar game, last game of the regular season against GT. The rest of the year, he was pretty ******* good. In 8 of the 12 regular season games, one of the 2 best WRs didn't play. The difference, IMO, was the running game in 2023 vs 2024. Miami should be able to run the ball very effectively in 2025 for Beck.
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Yes sir u are correct i was just pointing out out McConkey was out alot that year i didnt know Bowers missed 3 games couldnt tell by his stats. I keep saying running game too. Our OLine, i think Lyle is going to show out this year the Fletch and Brown in short years situations. Lofton gettin his its goin to keep us on schedule its going to help Beck not have to rely on a high powered #1 if we dont have one. I think one will show up out of Daniels and Jojo. If not them someone! Its going to look different than Cam last year but it will be just as effective! Good post btw like when people bring them stats and facts!
 
Cane_J15 said:
Yes sir u are correct i was just pointing out out McConkey was out alot that year i didnt know Bowers missed 3 games couldnt tell by his stats. I keep saying running game too. Our OLine, i think Lyle is going to show out this year the Fletch and Brown in short years situations. Lofton gettin his its goin to keep us on schedule its going to help Beck not have to rely on a high powered #1 if we dont have one. I think one will show up out of Daniels and Jojo. If not them someone! Its going to look different than Cam last year but it will be just as effective! Good post btw like when people bring them stats and facts!
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Yeah Bowers had ankle surgery and was out the end of the season. They had rushed him back at one point and then had to re-sit him. If he wasn’t hurt, I guarantee they beat Bama in the SEC Championship.

Edit: to be clear, Bowers missed three regular season games, but the fourth was where they tried playing him but had to re-sit him. He also missed the SEC championship, and bowl. So he missed everything starting from the UF game, which is Halloween weekend, and on.
 
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