Off-Topic Hurricane Season

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Most of the spaghetti models, each one is a different and individual forecast track, have it heading out straight into the Gulf, the two that are of concern are the two ones to the far right, the orange and green ones, which look like they veer east and not west

 

[JD08]

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Most of the spaghetti models, each one is a different and individual forecast track, have it heading out straight into the Gulf, the two that are of concern are the two ones to the far right, the orange and green ones, which look like they veer east and not west

If that goes over Cuba, it won't be very strong when it gets here.

 

[SpikeUM]

Accuweather appears to be the only ones doing a cone right now, and it has paying another visit to @PCBcanefan

The Euro model though, which is the most accurate, still has hugging Tampa.

 

[PCBcanefan]

Really hope it doesn’t come to the panhandle. Having an addition added on to the back of the house and it won’t be complete by the time it gets here if it does. Wonder what my insurance company will have to say about it if damage is done.

 

[ddann]

View attachment 209092

Most of the spaghetti models, each one is a different and individual forecast track, have it heading out straight into the Gulf, the two that are of concern are the two ones to the far right, the orange and green ones, which look like they veer east and not west

I see what you did there.

 

[SpikeUM]

Really hope it doesn’t come to the panhandle. Having an addition added on to the back of the house and it won’t be complete by the time it gets here if it does. Wonder what my insurance company will have to say about it if damage is done.

Call the insurance company to clarify, if there are no watches or warnings, you should be able to amend the policy, if needed.

 

[JD08]

TD9 has taken a shift to the east. Looks like Fort Myers is in for some weather next week.

 

[SpikeUM]

TD9 has taken a shift to the east. Looks like Fort Myers is in for some weather next week.

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Thats more or less what the Euro model has been predicting.

 

[SpikeUM]

Actually, this is more the Euro model, still in the Tampa area

 

[JD08]

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It doesn't look like Cuba is taking too much out of it if it's hitting as a 3.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Thats more or less what the Euro model has been predicting.

Those always seem to end up being the right ones.

 

[SpikeUM]

It doesn't look like Cuba is taking too much out of it if it's hitting as a 3.

Too small a landmass

 

[ddann]

Actually, this is more the Euro model, still in the Tampa area

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My daughter is in school in the Tampa area.

 

[JD08]

Too small a landmass

Usually the mountains weaken it significantly.

 

[SpikeUM]

Usually the mountains weaken it significantly.

Not a Cuban terrain expert, but I thought the big rugged mountains were on the east coast, near Guantanamo.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Usually the mountains weaken it significantly.

That could happen, but I’ve seen them intensify very quickly once they get out into that warm open water. All they need is enough time over the warm water and they can bloom – BOOM – from one day to the next. Looks like that’s what may be happening with this one.

But of course that cone could be changing over the next few days and trending either further east or west, which then might put South Florida in the crosshairs.

At this point, it’s not even close to making that right hand turn, it’s not even near Cuba yet. Just have to keep following it.

I think sometime on Monday we will have a much better idea.

 

[JD08]

Not a Cuban terrain expert, but I thought the big rugged mountains were on the east coast, near Guantanamo.

Google maps agrees. I'm going off the Hebert boxes. The theory was the mountains of Cuba and Hispaniola weaken the storms. But as @OriginalCanesCanesCanes points out, a little time in the warm gulf waters will help strengthen it.

 

[SpikeUM]

That could happen, but I’ve seen them intensify very quickly once they get out into that warm open water. All they need is enough time over the warm water and they can bloom – BOOM – from one day to the next. Looks like that’s what may be happening with this one.

But of course that cone could be changing over the next few days and trending either further east or west, which then might put South Florida in the crosshairs.

At this point, it’s not even close to making that right hand turn, it’s not even near Cuba yet. Just have to keep following it.

I think sometime on Monday we will have a much better idea.

Amateur meteorologist?

 

[SWFLHurricane]

If that goes over Cuba, it won't be very strong when it gets here.

Not necessarily....once it hits near, or in warm Gulf Waters...anything is possible...

 

[SWFLHurricane]

TD9 has taken a shift to the east. Looks like Fort Myers is in for some weather next week.

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Oh boy....can't wait...I'll shoot up to the Panhandle quickly if necessary.