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How recruiting failure can have a long term effect (Wide Receiver Edition)

M3N said:
You can hate the narrative all you want but it true. Almost every top tier player wants to go to a winner. That is the definition of being a front runner. Especially south Florida kids. Kids would rather play for an established winner then build a program. It just so happens that it all likely hold the kids will be developed better at said school. In the end it’s only portion of the reason why we have struggled. We have struggled to have roster symmetry since Butch left.

When you can identify, recruit, and develop the players it will go along way. Especially roster retention.

I don’t expect kids to come Miami just bc. That’s entirely different topic
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No that’s not the definition of a front runner.

It’s someone who plays best and acts different when they have a lead.

Kids that chose to go to winning programs aren’t front runners.

Those kids are going where it’s makes sense to go and just like most people status matters and has pull.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
Yeah, I've been posting since the late 90s (grassy, Canesport, etc.), and tend to remember all the ups and downs. I'm not sure if you are talking about Lavar Lobdell (the only Syracuse WR name I remember us recruiting during that time period), but he was from that upstate NY area, so it makes a bit more sense in retrospect. I simply can't fathom how we were so lazy from 2003-2006. I complained about it (on the boards) every year and almost caught a ban in 2006 when I was DESTROYING Miami for signing George Robinson.
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Yes, I think it was Lodbell.
 
Great post. However, I do think that the portal has made this factor less important. You can patch bad rosters with upperclassmen that don't leave the classes as imbalanced over time.
 
genxcane said:
Great post. However, I do think that the portal has made this factor less important. You can patch bad rosters with upperclassmen that don't leave the classes as imbalanced over time.
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This is true.

However, there is a difference between "bad rosters" that result from kids not developing as projected, vs. rosters that are defective because the coaches are not recruiting certain positions each and every year. For instance, with the 2003-2006 recruiting, even if Leggett and Shields had been full-on successes, we would have still been stuck with only 2 productive receivers SIMPLY BECAUSE WE DIDN'T RECRUIT MORE. And, yes, we could have taken transfers, even back then, but it was still a self-inflicted wound.
 
M3N said:
I sound like a butt hurt ex girlfriend? Lol ok pal. Seems like when someone says front runner you get it all twisted.

Kids in todays society are front runners. Period. You clearly either don’t have kids or don’t pay attention to their actions or follow recruiting closely.

Kids go to place for a myriad of factors whether its a top school, championship history, bags, etc.

I should of been more specific.

Guys like Jerry Jeudy would of been a 1st round at Duke or any school for that matter. That kid was a stud before he arrived at bama. He’s a grandma kid. Even your grandmother could see he was a 1st rounder.

I’m more so talking about the kids who aren’t as highly ranked but have tremendous upside. A kid like Zay Flowers should not be at BC he should be at Miami. He would be if we had coaches who can evaluate and develop properly

We all understand you need the horses to really win it all, but the way you keep a healthy roster is by quality evals.
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This. Well besides only kids today being front runners. They’ve always been front runners. Everyone in the 90’s loved the Chicago Bulls and Dallas Cowboys. But that’s besides the point.

The myth that the top programs “develop” players better is based solely on the fact that they sign the most good players. If your whole team is compromised of blue chip players, you’re going to have a bunch of kids drafted. A school like Alabama might have the most kids drafted but they also have the most highly ranked kids go undrafted. They’re playing the numbers game which is what recruiting is all about. You bring in as many 4 and 5 star players as possible and you don’t have to worry about finding diamonds in the rough or nailing every single evaluation.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
This is true.

However, there is a difference between "bad rosters" that result from kids not developing as projected, vs. rosters that are defective because the coaches are not recruiting certain positions each and every year. For instance, with the 2003-2006 recruiting, even if Leggett and Shields had been full-on successes, we would have still been stuck with only 2 productive receivers SIMPLY BECAUSE WE DIDN'T RECRUIT MORE. And, yes, we could have taken transfers, even back then, but it was still a self-inflicted wound.
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Yes, the obvious effect is to upgrade talent but I was specifically addressing the point of having the wrong numbers per class affecting the recruitment for years. Rather than taking on all Freshmen, you can take on some older kids and immediate correct the class distribution. This should significantly improve the mentioned affect of dissuading future recruits that don't want to sit behind that bloated class only to get one year.

Transfers were always a tool but the requirement to sit out a year diminished the impact they could have right away. Now, you can bring someone in for the next season so the impact can be much more immediate. Of course the opposite is true as well where you can get your balance screwed up by having people leave.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
This is true.

However, there is a difference between "bad rosters" that result from kids not developing as projected, vs. rosters that are defective because the coaches are not recruiting certain positions each and every year. For instance, with the 2003-2006 recruiting, even if Leggett and Shields had been full-on successes, we would have still been stuck with only 2 productive receivers SIMPLY BECAUSE WE DIDN'T RECRUIT MORE. And, yes, we could have taken transfers, even back then, but it was still a self-inflicted wound.
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Absolutely. In retrospect it screams of an all or nothing approach.

What served Miami more in 2006? Going after premiere receivers and only nabbing one blue chip in two cycles, thereby only having three available wide receivers at mid season? And also diminishing your CB corp by converting a blue chip freshman to WR?

Or also targeting and signing a high upside three star or two each year that would provide additional bodies?

How this happened was inexplicable.
 
M3N said:
You can hate the narrative all you want but it true. Almost every top tier player wants to go to a winner. That is the definition of being a front runner. Especially south Florida kids. Kids would rather play for an established winner then build a program. It just so happens that it all likely hold the kids will be developed better at said school. In the end it’s only portion of the reason why we have struggled. We have struggled to have roster symmetry since Butch left.

When you can identify, recruit, and develop the players it will go along way. Especially roster retention.

I don’t expect kids to come Miami just bc. That’s entirely different topic
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If all kids are front-runners, how do explain Texas having the #5 recruiting class despite having 7 losses. Or Texas A & M having the #1 recruiting class despite 4 losses. Or how Jimbo instantly recruited at a Top 5 level once he took over for Bobby Bowen? Yes, kids want to play for a winner, who doesn't? But Miami hasn't been able to close on these recruits because our head coaches have been average recruiters.
 
2012 Season (11 WRs): Davon Johnson (5th yr), Kendall Thompkins (5th yr), Allen Hurns (3rd yr), Phillip Dorsett (2nd yr), Rashawn Scott (2nd yr), Malcolm Lewis (1st yr), D'Mauri Jones (1st yr), Herb Waters (1st yr), Jontavious Carter (1st yr), Robert Lockhart (1st yr)

I barely remember Jones, Carter, and Lockhart. Did any of them ever play here?
 
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Gables Canes said:
2012 Season (11 WRs): Davon Johnson (5th yr), Kendall Thompkins (5th yr), Allen Hurns (3rd yr), Phillip Dorsett (2nd yr), Rashawn Scott (2nd yr), Malcolm Lewis (1st yr), D'Mauri Jones (1st yr), Herb Waters (1st yr), Jontavious Carter (1st yr), Robert Lockhart (1st yr)

I barely remember Jones, Carter, and Lockhart. Did any of them ever play here?
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Jones played a few games if I remember correctly. Carter was a big *** kid. He looked like he could actually be a gem, but he had some off field/head case issues and maybe played in a game or two before he left. Lockhart I don’t remember actually playing
 
GojiraCane said:
I bring this up because we in part face this situation now. Cornerback has seen some particular problem recently -

Commitments:
2018 (4): Al Blades, Gilbert Frierson, DJ Ivey, Nigel Bethel
2019 (2): Te'Cory Couch, Christian Williams
2020 (2): Isaiah Dunson, Marcus Clarke
2021 (1): Tyrique Stevenson

The end result is a need to over-sign to compensate for previous recruiting failures. Two corners were signed in the 2022 ESD, and more are expected (and needed) by spring. What this can in turn lead to is a challenge to sign players in follow-on classes, as over-signing leads to a glut of players of the same age at one position. Which in turn leads to the problem repeating itself.

An example of this challenge in a more extreme scenario was wide receivers. Under Larry Coker, Miami's signings for this position were few and far between. This was especially baffling as this was a team coming off of a national championship appearance, and a program that was in national championship contention each year in 2003 through 2005. Following the 2002 class, Miami was never able to sign more than two wide receivers in a single year, and one year completely failed to sign any:

2002 (3): Ryan Moore, Sinorice Moss, Akieem Jolla
2003 (1): Darnell Jenkins
2004 (2): Khalil Jones, Lance Leggett
2005 (0): None
2006: (2): Sam Shields, George Robinson

When Miami entered the 2006 season the program had but six scholarship wide receivers, having successfully recruited only five wide receivers over the previous four years. Coker signed Shields in 2006, but lost Preston Parker at the last moment to Florida State. Coker responded by converting four star cornerback Ryan Hill to wide receiver and using punter Brian Monroe at the position during practice.

2006 Season: (6 WRs): Ryan Moore (5th yr), Darnell Jenkins (4th yr), Khalil Jones (3rd yr), Lance Leggett (3rd yr), Sam Shields (1st yr), George Robinson (1st yr)

By mid-season in 2006 the Hurricanes were down to just three healthy wide receivers, and the already struggling offense ground to a halt. Miami went 2-4 over its final six games, and scored no more than 23 points in any single game. Following the conclusion of the season Coker departed. Ryan Moore's eligibility expired and George Robinson left Miami, reducing the returning scholarship players to just four players (along with the converted Ryan Hill). Randy Shannon brought in transfer Kayne Farquharson and signed Jermaine McKenzie and Leonard Hankerson for the 2007 season. However depth was minimal, and it took a hit when McKenzie was injured in an automobile accident and missed his freshman season.

2007 Season: (6 WRs): Darnell Jenkins (5th yr), Khalil Jones (4th yr), Lance Leggett (4th yr), Sam Shields (2nd yr), K. Farquharson (1st yr), Jermaine McKenzie (1st yr), Leonard Hankerson (1st yr)

Following the 2007 season Randy Shannon faced his first full recruiting class with a dilemma. He had only four wide receivers returning for the 2008 season (Shields, Farquharson, McKenzie, and Hankerson). Shannon was now forced to oversign in the 2008 class to bring numbers up to full, and brought in more wide receivers in one class than Larry Coker had been able to sign in four.

2008 Season (11 WRs): Khalil Jones (5th yr), Sam Shields (3rd yr), K. Farquharson (2nd yr), Jermaine McKenzie (2nd yr), Leonard Hankerson (2nd yr), Aldarius Johnson (1st yr), Davon Johnson(1st yr), Tommy Streeter (1st yr), Kendall Thompkins (1st yr), Thearon Collier (1st yr), Travis Benjamin (1st yr), LaRon Byrd (1st yr)

This surge was only temporary. Farquharson's eligibility had been expended, Shields was moved to defense and McKenzie transferred, leaving the large group of 2008 signees as the only wide receivers on roster. Because he had signed seven in 2008, Shannon was ultimately unable to bring in anyone in the 2009 class.

2009 Season (8 WRs): Leonard Hankerson (3rd yr), Aldarius Johnson (2nd yr), Davon Johnson(2nd yr), Tommy Streeter (2nd yr), Kendall Thompkins (2nd yr), Thearon Collier (2nd yr), Travis Benjamin (2nd yr), LaRon Byrd (2nd yr)

The giant 2008 class again had an impact the following season, as Shannon was able to secure just one new wide receiver for the 2010 class (a second signee failed to qualify). Miami remained at 8 wide receivers, but now the bulk of position was composed of upper classmen. By signing so many two seasons earlier, Randy was now beginning to replicate the recruiting issues that Coker had.

2010 Season (8 WRs): Leonard Hankerson (4th yr), Aldarius Johnson (3rd yr), Davon Johnson (3rd yr), Tommy Streeter (3rd yr), Kendall Thompkins (3rd yr), Travis Benjamin (3rd yr), LaRon Byrd (3rd yr), Allen Hurns (1st year)

After Shannon departed new head coach Al Golden faced a nightmarish prospect. The entire wide receiver corp save Hurns was NFL eligible, and at maximum had 1-2 years of college eligibility left. With little time left between joining the program and National Signing Day he was able to bring in two freshmen recruits, maintaining the position's numbers at 8 wide receivers after Aldarius Johnson and Leonard Hankerson departed. But the majority of the position remained upper classmen whose eligibility was running out:

2011 Season (8 WRs): Davon Johnson (4th yr), Tommy Streeter (4th yr), Kendall Thompkins (4th yr), Travis Benjamin (4th yr), LaRon Byrd (4th yr), Allen Hurns (2nd year), Philip Dorsett (1st yr), Rayshawn Scott (1st yr)

This lopsided roster led to conditions similar to what existed after 2007. Entering his first full recruiting class in February 2012, Al Golden now found himself in a situation reminiscent to what confronted Randy Shannon before the 2008 National Signing Day. He now needed to oversign in order to get numbers back up to par. Golden landed five wide receivers in that class, and at one points had a sixth (4 star Angelo Jean-Louis) who never played.

2012 Season (11 WRs): Davon Johnson (5th yr), Kendall Thompkins (5th yr), Allen Hurns (3rd yr), Phillip Dorsett (2nd yr), Rashawn Scott (2nd yr), Malcolm Lewis (1st yr), D'Mauri Jones (1st yr), Herb Waters (1st yr), Jontavious Carter (1st yr), Robert Lockhart (1st yr)

After that wide receiver recruiting finally stabilized. We would have one more class that would feature only one signee (2015 - Lawrence Cager), but never again a three year stretch where only three players were successfully recruited in a position that generally requires that a team maintain ten players.

Ultimately, what we saw in the example of the wide receiver recruiting misfires was that failures to secure commitments can have a continuing effect long after the initial miss or misses. Consecutive years with under-recruiting or failure to land any players at a given position creates over-signing afterwards, which in turn discourages future recruits from signing with the program because of the horde of similarly aged talent at the position. This is something that to watch for in the next two cycles as Miami continues to fill out the cornerback position.
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Excellent overview of how disruptions to "training pipelines" can bring forth havoc to an organization in future years--and often take years more to recover.

Looking at this through the same lens (in terms of "misses") you can see why the OL group had been a disaster for so long, and will take HC Super Mario several cycles (instantly through TP and long-term through HS recruits) to get them to above average.

Contrast above to say 80's Hurricanes* or even moreso last 5-10 years Bama. Saban is able to land the "right athelete" in the "right numbers" (hello blue and gray shirts) with each class. In turn, Bama's development program trains and retains them in order for them to shine when they get their moment on stage. It is also how Joe Moglia built Coastal Carolina (I have doubts about Chadwell in HC role).

It isn't that hard for an organization to pull off IF they get the right leaders** in-place.

Pair HC Super Mario's recruiting prowess with equally talented OC/DC/position coaches and watch the fück out CFB...

A Hurricane is brewing off the coast and they aren't ready...

GO CANES!

*Saint Schnelly and His Most Holy Coiffed One had "it" for cult of personaility; Erickson was underrated as recruiter; Butch DAW GAWD (enough said)... I believe HC Super Mario is a Schnelly/Johnson lean (NOW PROVE IT!)

**= leader + necessary resources (calm down muppets)
 
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On the frontrunner front, kids have always been frontrunners. We had plenty of them from all over the country sign here when we were balling. Play for ships and get drafted, you're always going to draw names in like we did then.
 
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Gables Canes said:
2012 Season (11 WRs): Davon Johnson (5th yr), Kendall Thompkins (5th yr), Allen Hurns (3rd yr), Phillip Dorsett (2nd yr), Rashawn Scott (2nd yr), Malcolm Lewis (1st yr), D'Mauri Jones (1st yr), Herb Waters (1st yr), Jontavious Carter (1st yr), Robert Lockhart (1st yr)

I barely remember Jones, Carter, and Lockhart. Did any of them ever play here?
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Yes Jones and Carter did and never did much.. Lockhart never qualified and I think ended up at Marshall for a short while. Carter transferred somewhere and did ok.
 
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demcanes26 said:
If all kids are front-runners, how do explain Texas having the #5 recruiting class despite having 7 losses. Or Texas A & M having the #1 recruiting class despite 4 losses. Or how Jimbo instantly recruited at a Top 5 level once he took over for Bobby Bowen? Yes, kids want to play for a winner, who doesn't? But Miami hasn't been able to close on these recruits because our head coaches have been average recruiters.
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Sark is an average at best coach. The NIL at Texas is crazy . Jimbo has title and recruiting chops. The two schools you mentioned also have arguably the two strongest bags in the nation outside of UGA and Alabama.
 
Trav said:
Yes Jones and Carter did and never did much.. Lockhart never qualified and I think ended up at Marshall for a short while. Carter transferred somewhere and did ok.
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Carter was a freak I remember that. Didn’t he get into a fight or something? Dude was a headcase IIRC but a physical beast
 
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