Highly Rated HS QBs attrition (according to The Athletic article)

ssvir

Sophomore
Premium
Joined
Nov 6, 2011
Messages
6,169

"The Athletic studied the careers of the top 50 high school quarterbacks who signed with FBS programs in the recruiting classes of 2017 through 2020. More than 70 percent have transferred during their time in college."

"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."

"But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10: Ewers, Williams, Sam Huard, Jake Garcia and Jaxson Dart. Many more could enter the portal in May if spring competitions don’t go their way. That’s just how it goes now for young quarterbacks trying to make it in this era of college football: start or depart."
 
Advertisement

"The Athletic studied the careers of the top 50 high school quarterbacks who signed with FBS programs in the recruiting classes of 2017 through 2020. More than 70 percent have transferred during their time in college."

"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."

"But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10: Ewers, Williams, Sam Huard, Jake Garcia and Jaxson Dart. Many more could enter the portal in May if spring competitions don’t go their way. That’s just how it goes now for young quarterbacks trying to make it in this era of college football: start or depart."
Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?
 
Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?
Honestly, this is probably correct.

I think QB is one of the most volatile positions on the ranking websites bc they fall in love with physical tools.

But being successful at QB is so much more than physical tools. The mental aspect is typically unaccounted for.

I'm not sold on this thought yet, but taking 1 developmental qb a year and hitting the portal as needed may be the beat move.

But with this approach, you can't miss in the portal if you need one, otherwise you're super ****ed.
 
Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?

Unless it’s an Uber obvious guy like Bryce Young then yeah. If you can’t get one of those super elite guys then load up on low 4-star/high 3-star types each year, and attack the portal.

While not the same logic, It reminds me on the one and done in college basketball. It may be more optimal now to recruit 2-3 guys in the 30-75 ranking range and shoot for 1 top 20 or so guy each year (and also attack the portal). Raise the consistent floor of your program and fill in with the occasional superstar or portal addition rather than trying to get 5 top ten pick egos to mesh together in one year.
 
Advertisement
Honestly, this is probably correct.

I think QB is one of the most volatile positions on the ranking websites bc they fall in love with physical tools.

But being successful at QB is so much more than physical tools. The mental aspect is typically unaccounted for.

I'm not sold on this thought yet, but taking 1 developmental qb a year and hitting the portal as needed may be the beat move.

But with this approach, you can't miss in the portal if you need one, otherwise you're super ****ed.
I would hate being a college coach in today's market. Would drive me crazy 🤪
NIL, transfer portal, etc. Not against these things, but the stress level on coaches must be through the roof. I know many coordinators and HCs make lots of 💸💸💸, but still, I couldn't do it.
 
Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?
Exactly the point I've been making.

QB seems to the place we should be getting "free agents" rather than spending money and time to develop a HS QB.

5* guys from Texas/UGA/Bama/Clemson/OSU that lose out the starting job for whatever reason are prime targets.
 

"The Athletic studied the careers of the top 50 high school quarterbacks who signed with FBS programs in the recruiting classes of 2017 through 2020. More than 70 percent have transferred during their time in college."

"Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an 87 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. But among the quarterbacks who did earn a start in their first two years, more than 60 percent still ended up transferring during their careers."

"But 27 of the top 50 have already transferred, including five of the top 10: Ewers, Williams, Sam Huard, Jake Garcia and Jaxson Dart. Many more could enter the portal in May if spring competitions don’t go their way. That’s just how it goes now for young quarterbacks trying to make it in this era of college football: start or depart."
Being able to keep a quality QB waiting on the bench for his turn behind an established QB has always been a tough task. In todays age of transfer portals and NIL it is going to be insanely difficult.
 
QB seems to the place we should be getting "free agents" rather than spending money and time to develop a HS QB.

This is another area where NIL is currently out of whack with a natural balance.

Even if the NFL was a completely open system when it comes to spending and structure, the highest valued contracts would still always be free agents and not rookies. I think as time goes on you'll see more and more money spent on portal players and less on high school recruits.
 
Advertisement
NIL will be going to keep your own starter and to portal QBs. High school QBs (except for the absolute highest ranked in each class) might be increasingly forced to go G5 or below to get good tape and hit the portal down the road.
 
I can't read the article but I wonder how many of these transfers are from schools that sign at least 1 bluechip QB every year? In modern recruiting you try to sign one every season whereas in the past teams would hitch their wagon to one guy and ride or die with him. You can only play one guy at a time so it only makes sense that the other guys transfer out. It's not so much that they are busts as it is they sign at schools with a ton of competition for one spot.
 
While it’s always optimal to get the best qb possible in each high school class, at this point, it almost seems like the more worse case scenario, or to just load up with 1-2 solid hs qbs every year and then simultaneously attack the portal, could almost be just as productive.

There’s no real evidence for that.

The best route is to land a bunch of QBs that rank as overall Top 50-ish recruits every year, and then let them battle it out. Some will leave and oh well.

But that basically guarantees you hit on the QB every year.

Anything else is not sustainable on a yearly basis.
 
Advertisement
In modern recruiting you try to sign one every season whereas in the past teams would hitch their wagon to one guy and ride or die with him

Washington is getting ****ed by doing this. They went all in on Huard to get him to sign. Fenix comes back for one extra year and he bounces, along with their '23 commit flipping to OSU before signing day. Now they don't have **** for depth. 3 QB's on the roster
 
The elite programs are doing that. It’s difficult for sure. But so is the path to being elite. It’s not for everyone.

I’m not so sure elite programs or landing a bunch of top 50 quarterbacks every year. I’d like to see the statistics on that. Can you provide some proof of at least 10 teams a year doing that?
 
Advertisement
I can't read the article but I wonder how many of these transfers are from schools that sign at least 1 bluechip QB every year? In modern recruiting you try to sign one every season whereas in the past teams would hitch their wagon to one guy and ride or die with him. You can only play one guy at a time so it only makes sense that the other guys transfer out. It's not so much that they are busts as it is they sign at schools with a ton of competition for one spot.
Which is why I say QB’s are usually some of the most arrogant, self centered and ill informed young men you can ever recruit for the most part. They all want to be recruited like they’re Aaron Rodgers and none of them are. **** he wasn’t until he was. On top of that they only commit on top of each other and blame YOU for the reason they’re not seeing the playing field. top tier QB prospects can go anywhere and still be scouted just for their individual game
 
Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?

I have been saying this since day one ne of the NIL era. For high school, put the money on defensive linemen, wide receivers and defensive backs where you usually know what you’re getting. Try to take two four star or high three star QBs each class to increase your odds you hit and be willing to have them transfer out and go to the portal if none pan out.
 
Maybe then not a good place to spend millions of NIL dollars out of high school?

I'd imagine the companies/entities providing student-athletes with NIL deals will leverage this data when working on future deals with incoming recruits. No way in **** CFB players are making the amounts being published on the interwebz. Some, sure. most, no ******* way.
 
I have been saying this since day one ne of the NIL era. For high school, put the money on defensive linemen, wide receivers and defensive backs where you usually know what you’re getting. Try to take two four star or high three star QBs each class to increase your odds you hit and be willing to have them transfer out and go to the portal if none pan out.

Safest bet is on elite ballas on the defensive side of the ball. For whatever reason, they don't bust nearly as much. They just project wayyyyy better to college (and the league) than "blue chip" offensive recruits.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top