You are looking at this issue from an objective and rational basis. The problem, as I learned from my experience with my nephew, is that people are rarely objective when it comes to themselves. So you and I can agree on the statistics that prove your point. But show that same information to a player and family and all they will think is, ‘ but I’m going to the league in 3 years’.
I met with an NBA player agent who told me that every NBA player in a locker room is really good in part because they are delusional. They all beleive they would score 20 points a game if only the coach played him more. We know that is delusional. But to play in the NBA (or NFL), the player needs to be delusional because they have to believe they are great in order to be great.