GroundHog Day: Context is Everything

LuCane

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In the early part of the 2012 season, Kansas State's Bill Snyder did what any good coach would do: look at film and see how he could get the most output from the lowest risk. His team ran us over only having to throw the ball 11 times in that game.

Later on that season, Notre Dame's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

51 rushes for 376 yards. An 8.1 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We talked about how inexperienced our players were. Frankly, it's fair to note that guys like Corey King, Earl Moore and others were being bullied in our style and that game.

In 2013, we saw Wake Forest early in the season and their coaching staff moved around our defenders. They didn't have a great game, but they did have one of their better games (against us).

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We talked about how it doesn't matter what they did since we got stops and won the game. Fair enough.

Later on that season, Duke's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach from KState, Notre Dame and what Wake Forest had shown and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

52 rushes for 358 yards. 6.9 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We're not there yet. Our Safeties are terrible. Our DTs are worthless. We'll be better with better talent. But, yes, we're worried a little.

In 2014, Nebraska's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach over the span of 2 previous years (KState, Notre Dame, etc.) and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

54 rushes for 343 yards. 6.4 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We're still not there even now, but we're making progress. We had unnecessary penalties (what?). Our Safeties are terrible. Our DLine still isn't strong. Imagine what GTech will do to us! Well, here's the likely answer: GTech may not look great against us because they haven't shown the willingness to spread out the field and get numbers inside. They run different formations that fail to give them the same advantages some of these other teams have used.

Here's the point of all of this:

Whether we hold FSU's national championship team to a mere 4.4 yards/carry on 44 attempts like we did last year, or hold GaTech to a mere 227 yards rushing (relative to their style, that's pretty decent), the recipe to destroy us in the run game is out there. It's as simple as spreading us out and outnumbering us in the box. The teams willing to do that will apparently have eerily similar stats to that pattern you see above. Therefore, try not to look at results without looking at the context. Why something works versus Arkansas State is as important as the result. Ultimately, we need things to work in a way that will be sustainable in meaningful games.
 
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And now Duke's coaches are just gonna dust off the same gameplan they used from last season to give us a heaping helping of more of the same.
 
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We all see what our own coaches dont. The worst defenses in Miami history are under these *****. This style may have worked at some point, some where, and I highly doubt it ever would, but in today's offenses and skill sets, it's a recipe for disaster. And since everyone under the sun has now figured out how to beat us, if we get past 4 wins this year, I will be very surprised. We have a top 15/20 roster.
 
In the early part of the 2012 season, Kansas State's Bill Snyder did what any good coach would do: look at film and see how he could get the most output from the lowest risk. His team ran us over only having to throw the ball 11 times in that game.

Later on that season, Notre Dame's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

51 rushes for 376 yards. An 8.1 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We talked about how inexperienced our players were. Frankly, it's fair to note that guys like Corey King, Earl Moore and others were being bullied in our style and that game.

In 2013, we saw Wake Forest early in the season and their coaching staff moved around our defenders. They didn't have a great game, but they did have one of their better games (against us).

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We talked about how it doesn't matter what they did since we got stops and won the game. Fair enough.

Later on that season, Duke's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach from KState, Notre Dame and what Wake Forest had shown and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

52 rushes for 358 yards. 6.9 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We're not there yet. Our Safeties are terrible. Our DTs are worthless. We'll be better with better talent. But, yes, we're worried a little.

In 2014, Nebraska's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach over the span of 2 previous years (KState, Notre Dame, etc.) and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

54 rushes for 343 yards. 6.4 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We're still not there even now, but we're making progress. We had unnecessary penalties (what?). Our Safeties are terrible. Our DLine still isn't strong. Imagine what GTech will do to us! Well, here's the likely answer: GTech may not look great against us because they haven't shown the willingness to spread out the field and get numbers inside. They run different formations that fail to give them the same advantages some of these other teams have used.

Here's the point of all of this:

Whether we hold FSU's national championship team to a mere 4.4 yards/carry on 44 attempts like we did last year, or hold GaTech to a mere 227 yards rushing (relative to their style, that's pretty decent), the recipe to destroy us in the run game is out there. It's as simple as spreading us out and outnumbering us in the box. The teams willing to do that will apparently have eerily similar stats to that pattern you see above. Therefore, try not to look at results without looking at the context. Why something works versus Arkansas State is as important as the result. Ultimately, we need things to work in a way that will be sustainable in meaningful games.

very insightful post
 
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And now Dukes coaches are just gonna dust off the same gameplan they used from last season to give us a heaping helping of more of the same.

Thing is, Cutcliffe will probably mix it up and pass more while we are expecting to be ran on. Our staff won't be able to handle the switch up and we will look woefully unprepared (again)
 
Golden needs a ***** slap. Like wake tf up man. What are you not seeing that we are? Do they watch film? Are they trying to get fired, are they trying to kill our program? What? This is so frustrating man and when I hear the media and writers try to excuse some of it I wanna shoot myself in the head. Like have u ever seen a team get the same thing done to them so much and it never changes? Goodness me. The came in here and we're forced to use a 4-3 and what do u know it the best they have produced, which was still mediocre. They change it and it's the worst defense known to mankind.
 
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The amount of evidence stacked against Golden is mind numbing. It's almost comical to hear his excuses at this point, if only it weren't so ******* sad.
 
And now Dukes coaches are just gonna dust off the same gameplan they used from last season to give us a heaping helping of more of the same.

Thing is, Cutcliffe will probably mix it up and pass more while we are expecting to be ran on. Our staff won't be able to handle the switch up and we will look woefully unprepared (again)

Our coaches since they have been here are completely terrified of the big play, as evidence shows against nebraska if you hit one big play downfield they wont even consider adjusting to the run game gashing us. They will be completely content with you pounding us out for 5-8 yards a play and hope you trip over your feet and make a mistake. That is literally our defensive philosophy, hope the offense messes up and just stay back and not take risk or be aggressive.

I think Duke will pass more and be successful, I do think its harder to run on us this year and there are tons of plays to be had through the air against us, I dont know much about duke and their offense but I have seen enough of cutcliff to know he will have them ready either way
 
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In the early part of the 2012 season, Kansas State's Bill Snyder did what any good coach would do: look at film and see how he could get the most output from the lowest risk. His team ran us over only having to throw the ball 11 times in that game.

Later on that season, Notre Dame's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

51 rushes for 376 yards. An 8.1 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We talked about how inexperienced our players were. Frankly, it's fair to note that guys like Corey King, Earl Moore and others were being bullied in our style and that game.

In 2013, we saw Wake Forest early in the season and their coaching staff moved around our defenders. They didn't have a great game, but they did have one of their better games (against us).

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We talked about how it doesn't matter what they did since we got stops and won the game. Fair enough.

Later on that season, Duke's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach from KState, Notre Dame and what Wake Forest had shown and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

52 rushes for 358 yards. 6.9 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We're not there yet. Our Safeties are terrible. Our DTs are worthless. We'll be better with better talent. But, yes, we're worried a little.

In 2014, Nebraska's staff did the obvious: they copied what looked like a successful approach over the span of 2 previous years (KState, Notre Dame, etc.) and applied it to their players' skill sets in a game against us:

54 rushes for 343 yards. 6.4 average.

Some fans and Press Conference Responses: We're still not there even now, but we're making progress. We had unnecessary penalties (what?). Our Safeties are terrible. Our DLine still isn't strong. Imagine what GTech will do to us! Well, here's the likely answer: GTech may not look great against us because they haven't shown the willingness to spread out the field and get numbers inside. They run different formations that fail to give them the same advantages some of these other teams have used.

Here's the point of all of this:

Whether we hold FSU's national championship team to a mere 4.4 yards/carry on 44 attempts like we did last year, or hold GaTech to a mere 227 yards rushing (relative to their style, that's pretty decent), the recipe to destroy us in the run game is out there. It's as simple as spreading us out and outnumbering us in the box. The teams willing to do that will apparently have eerily similar stats to that pattern you see above. Therefore, try not to look at results without looking at the context. Why something works versus Arkansas State is as important as the result. Ultimately, we need things to work in a way that will be sustainable in meaningful games.

/Sarcasm
So you notice the yards per carry decreasing. #trendingup
 
The D is outflanked at the snap, and it's downhill from there. You can't put 6 on 8 and expect to succeed. The safetys never even show up on the TV screen because they are so far back, like the guy who never moves his back row in checkers. Except that in the fear of surrendering an 80yd play, our D gives up 10 successive 8 yd plays and the opposing offense never breaks a sweat. Nebraska ran the ball what, 80% of the time, and you make no effort to try and force them out of their comfort zone? That's horrible game planning. Identify what the opponent does best/most and take it away from them. Our D is sending OLBs out to cover WRs instead of bringing a safety down, because lord forbid a safety come within 20yds of the LoS. This team as gone from "hit, stick and bust d*ck" to "oooh, I hope the other guys make a mistake! Then we'll get em!"
 
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And now Duke's coaches are just gonna dust off the same gameplan they used from last season to give us a heaping helping of more of the same.

This^^^. Cutcliffe has something he didn't have last year: Wilson-28 carries, 404 yards and 4 TDs. Averaging 14.4 per carry. If this does not get turned around this week it will be a repeat of Nebraska. I don't think D'No survives 2 back to back 200+ yd performances.
 
Good stuff, Lu. Here's a thread I made in August before last season looking specifically at the KSU game from 2012: http://www.canesinsight.com/threads/55109-Defensive-Scheme-vs-Talent

I went back and focused on how they manipulated our defensive numbers in the box using formations.

Very frustrating was the fact that we apparently didn't treat Klein as a running threat, similar to Armstrong this weekend. Also, we apparently stay in our base defense to keep the extra LB on the field to help against the run, but we walk that LB out over the slot and remove him from the play.

The defense doesn't make any sense to me. We're seeing the same things now with more talent as we did in 2012 with worse talent.

Before I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Doritos because we were young, void of talented depth and that defense was new to our players. But it's obvious this flawed system was the plan from the beginning.
 
...we need things to work in a way that will be sustainable in meaningful games.

Seems like I've been hearing Lu say this for about 4 years now.
 
"The Hurricanes better be ready for what's coming up. Duke coach David Cutliffe can X and O with anyone and his offensive schemes could expose Miami's defense again if it's not ready. The comes Georgia Tech and its 1940s triple-option offense. Pure power. Exactly what has caused Miami problems. These are two games Miami should win. But they'd better bring their best game."
Dave Hyde
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/sfl-20140922,0,5858035.story
 
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