FSU changed nothing, we changed it. in the first half we threw on 11 times 1st or 2nd down ran 9 times, good balance...they couldnt stop it. In the second half, we ran 16 times on first or second down and only threw 6 times. Fact! FSU game plan in the first half...don't let Duke beat you, second half, don't let Duke beat you. We kept running on early downs and ended up in long 3rd downs and then they can pressure Kaaya and sit on routes in the second half.
I was at the game and keyed on FSU's defensive alignment every snap. In the first half they had an extra guy in the box, played 1 safety up high, and a lot of man coverage. We had one on one opportunities outside that we seized on. In the second half they completely changed their defense, and played 2 safeties deep. They adjusted to take away the pass. We ran the ball more which is the right adjustment to make to counter their adjustment.
Its not the right adjustment to move away from a balanced offense to lopsided running. That puts you in third and long and resulted in Kaaya struggling to drop back. They were still rolling players down late. and they were doing alot of blitzing as well because our play calling became very predictable.
This is complete fiction. Meanwhile, back in reality, let's look at our second half drives and see what really happened:
1st drive: incomplete pass on 1st down. Run for a first down. Pass for -2 yards. Short run. Pass incomplete.
2nd drive: runs of 5, 7, 6, 3 yards. Inc pass on 2nd and 3rd and 7.
3rd drive: run for 6, run for 4, run for -1 on first down, Dobard fumbles
4th drive: run for 7, run for 28, inc pass on first down, run for 6, run for 4, inc pass on first down, run for 2, inc pass on third down
5th drive: run for -1, false start, inc pass, completion for 2 yards
6th drive: pass for 14, run for 3, run for 5, pass for 9, inc pass on first down, run for 1, inc pass, int
Here's what we did on first down in the second half:
Passing: inc, comp for -2 yards, comp for 19, inc, inc, comp for 14, inc, totals: 3-7 for 31 yards
Running: run for 7, run for 3, run for 6, run for -1, run for 7, run for -1, run for 3 totals: 7 for 24, 3.4 ypc
So 7 passing plays and 7 running plays. Can't get any more balanced than that on first down. Of the 7 passing plays, 2 were a success. Of the 7 running plays, 3 were good, 2 ok, 2 bad. Didn't really have great success doing either, but probably slightly better running because 5 of 7 passing plays but is in 2nd and very long (10+) while only 2 running plays did so.
On 2nd down we did this:
Runs: 10, 2, 6, 5, 4, 28, 6, 1, 1
Passes: inc, 33 yard comp to dobard (fumble), scramble for 5, inc
We ran it a lot but it worked a lot. We averaged 7 ypc and picked up 5 first downs on 9 runs. Meanwhile we were basically 1-4 passing on this down.
Now let's look at how we got into third downs and what killed drives:
1st drive 3rd and 10 (inc pass), preceded by inc pass on 1st down, run for 2 on 2nd down
2nd drive 3rd and 7 (inc pass), preceded by run for 3 on 1st down, inc pass
4th drive 3rd and 4 (run for 4 for 1st down), preceded by inc pass on 1st down, run for 6 on 2nd down
5th drive 3rd and 9 (inc pass), preceded by inc pass on 1st down, run for 1 on 2nd down
6th drive 3rd and 16 (pass for 3), preceded by run for -1 on 1st down, false start, inc pass on 2nd down
7th drive 3rd and 2 (pass for 9, 1st down), preceded by run for 3 on 1st down, scramble for 5 on 2nd down
7th drive 4th and 9 (int), preceded by inc pass on 1st down, run for 1 2nd down, inc pass 3rd down
Summary: So here are the total running and passing stats for the above sets of downs (sets of downs that led to a 3rd down play) - Passing 2-13, 12 yards, int. Rushing 8 for 19 yards. Both stink but the passing numbers are way worse. In other words, passing is what killed these drives more than rushing. Out of 7 sets of downs, 6 of them had 2 passes and 1 rush. Of those 6, only one resulted in a first down. Meanwhile 1 of 7 sets of downs featured 2 rushes and 1 pass and it resulted in a first down on a 4 yard run. Passing led to third and longs more than rushing and passing killed these drives more than rushing.
Conclusions: We were balanced on first down, runs were slightly more successful. We ran more on second down but averaged 7ypc and picked up a bunch of first downs. Inc passes were a bigger cause of us getting into third and long. Passing was 2-13 for 12 yards and an int on 7 sets of downs with a 3rd down. The assertion that going heavy on the runs put us in a lot of third and long and caused Kaaya to struggle isn't supported at all anywhere in the data. Our passing game sucked in the 2nd half no matter what down we threw on or what the yardage situation was. Coley didn't adjust well to what FSU did defensively in the secondary, Kaaya struggled, and FSU made some plays.