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Tears Gator Tears

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flagator86 said:
3 out of the last 5 (we won in 19 and 20) but since he's been at UK, he's been slowly chipping away at UF. They've always been pesky to UF since the 2000's from time to time (more often than not it's always a 3 or 4 quarter game) but now he's got UK on UF's level.

2013: 7-24
2014: 30-36
2015: 9-16
2016: 7-45
2017: 27-28
2018: 27-16
2019: 21-29
2020: 10-34
2021: 20-13
2022: 26-16


So as you can see, over the last 10 meetings, only 4 of them were decided by 10 or more points. They SHOULD have won a few of those (14, 15, 17, 19) a few that they lost too
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Are you sure you're a purebred Gator fan? You have a an air of legitimacy and reality about you that I find frightening.
 
TimeBum said:
4 minutes left, down a TD, UK hasn't really moved the ball well and he goes for it on 4th and 6th from the UF 24. It is honestly one of the most inexplicable coaching decisions in my 40+ years of watching football.
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He must Twitter follow that HS coach from GA who never punts.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Sorry, guys, but this needs to be imported to the Gaytor Tears thread (it's over in the UF-Kentucky game thread)...

Louisiana up by FIVE on Appalachian State, on their own 35, with 1:51 to go. Gaypier elects to take a SAFETY, cutting the lead to THREE, and making Louisiana take the free kick from the 20. If you stopped the story there, maybe this isn't a big deal. But App State drove the ball down the field, set up for the 30-yard field goal to tie the game, and the only reason Gaypier survived was because App State missed the kick.





"In the weirdest year of the modern era of college football, UL’s intentional safety might have been the most weird. Or bizarre. Or confounding. Or, depending on who you talk to, downright silly. Some believe it was completely unnecessary, absurd and wild—altogether nonsensical. Others agree with the call, describing it as UL coach Billy Napier has: the best option given what had unfolded with his snapper earlier in the game."



And here's what is fast becoming the hallmark of Billy Gaypier...he spun some imaginary story to justify his decision, as if his way was the only possible choice that could have been made:

"When asked about the decision after the Ragin' Cajuns held on for a 24-21 win, Napier defended it, saying, "What would you do? You want to run the snapper and the punter back out there and see if you can do that?"

Leading up to Napier's decision, Louisiana had three bad snaps from long snapper Paul Boudreaux.

"I mean we could do that if you want," Napier said. "But we felt like the best opportunity to win was to take a safety there and make sure we didn't give up a bad play.""



But look at the video.

1. Louisiana snapped the ball to the QB in shotgun formation, with a safety-man behind the QB. So, in theory, (a) the center could have botched the shotgun snap, same as a punt snap, and (b) the punt formation could have had a safety-man behind the punter, who could have then taken a safety IN CASE THE PUNT SNAP WAS BOTCHED, but only if the punt snap was botched.

2. Louisiana's line from the punt was the 35, thus the punt would have been kicked from about the 25, while the line to punt from after a safety is the 20.

3. With a regular punt, you send gunners down the field, thus limiting the return on the punt. On a free kick, nobody can run down the field until the ball is kicked, thus you can get a good return off of a safety free-kick.



And then there is this:

"Analytically, Napier’s decision to intentionally take a safety generated a much lower probability of winning the game than the other options, says Ian O’Connor, a data analyst for the sports analytics company EdjSports.

The Cajuns were at an 83% probability of winning before the fourth-down snap. After the intentional safety, they were at 59%.

The only lower probability among the other options, but barely, was failing to achieve a first down with a fourth-down attempt (56.4%). And what if they had punted? An average punt and return (about 35 yards) would have produced a probability of around 72%. Even a poor net punt of 20 yards would have given the Cajuns a 63.3% chance of winning."



So to sum up, Sunbelt Billy makes poor gameday decisions, and then he tries to bullsh!te people into believing that his poor decisions are actually brilliant decisions.

And he did it again Saturday. TWICE. Two fourth-quarter decisions to go for it on fourth down in his own territory.

Insanity.

But I'm here for it. Never change, Slingblade Billy. Always be true to your illogical brain and your defective analysis. That's why we love you...
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Why wouldn't they just act like they are going for it and have the the QB quick punt it out of regular shotgun? It doesn't happen all that often or anything, but it's not like it's never done either.
 
calinative umstudent said:
Why wouldn't they just act like they are going for it and have the the QB quick punt it out of regular shotgun? It doesn't happen all that often or anything, but it's not like it's never done either.
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See, that was my thought too. If you're so afraid of the long snapper, just do a shotgun snap and a no-step punt. Worst case it goes like 25 yds.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Why wouldn't they just act like they are going for it and have the the QB quick punt it out of regular shotgun? It doesn't happen all that often or anything, but it's not like it's never done either.
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It's funny you mention that. A part of the article (that I didn't quote) indicated that Sunbelt Billy realized this, but he said "they had not prepared the QB to pooch punt it".

Here's the key takeaway, particularly since Slingblade Billy has built a cottage industry out of the phrase "scared money don't make money". Too many coaches out-think themselves, and take actions that are unnecessary in order to prevent a particular outcome that is highly unlikely or avoidable.

This is what I mean.

When Billy Karl Childers called that play, he was guaranteeing a safety instead of taking the chance to snap the ball to the punter and THEN take a safety if his worst fears were realized. You see from the QB shotgun snap in the video that they had a safety-man BEHIND the QB. Why? To cover in case the snap was bad. That safety-man could have ALSO taken a safety if the shotgun snap went bad. As it turned out, the shotgun snap was perfect.

Now, contrast that with what happens if you are in punt formation. Yes, the snap is a bit longer, but nothing prevents you from putting a safety-man back to assist with the POSSIBLE safety in the WORST CASE SCENARIO of a bad snap. But if you have a GOOD snap? Then everything goes perfectly, you punt the ball, and you don't automatically give up the two points.

And, sure, there are a couple of other POSSIBILITIES. A. The snap is bobbled. TAKE THE SAFETY. B. The punt is blocked. With a safety-man, you have a better chance of preventing a TD or taking the safety yourself, depending on the bounce of the ball. C. The return goes for a touchdown. Hey, that could happen under any circumstance.

In fact, taking the "free kick" after a safety only eliminates the "blocked kick" scenario, though it was pretty clear that App State was setting up for a return, they were not in a max-block-punt formation. On the other side, a "free kick" is more likely to result in a long return, given that you can't send gunners down the sidelines to make the tackle shortly after the kick is fielded. And if the PUNT was returned for a TD, Louisiana is only down by 2 with nearly 2 minutes to go, plenty of time to win it with a FG. But if the FREE KICK was returned for a TD after the safety, Louisiana is down 4 and has to score a TD to win.

Someone needs to hire me as a sideline logic/decision-making/clock management coach. I could win any coach an extra one or two games per year just by making better decisions than most of these coaches ever make on their own.
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
It's funny you mention that. A part of the article (that I didn't quote) indicated that Sunbelt Billy realized this, but he said "they had not prepared the QB to pooch punt it".

Here's the key takeaway, particularly since Slingblade Billy has built a cottage industry out of the phrase "scared money don't make money". Too many coaches out-think themselves, and take actions that are unnecessary in order to prevent a particular outcome that is highly unlikely or avoidable.

This is what I mean.

When Billy Karl Childers called that play, he was guaranteeing a safety instead of taking the chance to snap the ball to the punter and THEN take a safety if his worst fears were realized. You see from the QB shotgun snap in the video that they had a safety-man BEHIND the QB. Why? To cover in case the snap was bad. That safety-man could have ALSO taken a safety if the shotgun snap went bad. As it turned out, the shotgun snap was perfect.

Now, contrast that with what happens if you are in punt formation. Yes, the snap is a bit longer, but nothing prevents you from putting a safety-man back to assist with the POSSIBLE safety in the WORST CASE SCENARIO of a bad snap. But if you have a GOOD snap? Then everything goes perfectly, you punt the ball, and you don't automatically give up the two points.

And, sure, there are a couple of other POSSIBILITIES. A. The snap is bobbled. TAKE THE SAFETY. B. The punt is blocked. With a safety-man, you have a better chance of preventing a TD or taking the safety yourself, depending on the bounce of the ball. C. The return goes for a touchdown. Hey, that could happen under any circumstance.

In fact, taking the "free kick" after a safety only eliminates the "blocked kick" scenario, though it was pretty clear that App State was setting up for a return, they were not in a max-block-punt formation. On the other side, a "free kick" is more likely to result in a long return, given that you can't send gunners down the sidelines to make the tackle shortly after the kick is fielded. And if the PUNT was returned for a TD, Louisiana is only down by 2 with nearly 2 minutes to go, plenty of time to win it with a FG. But if the FREE KICK was returned for a TD after the safety, Louisiana is down 4 and has to score a TD to win.

Someone needs to hire me as a sideline logic/decision-making/clock management coach. I could win any coach an extra one or two games per year just by making better decisions than most of these coaches ever make on their own.
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Separate from his decision but given how many kickoffs go into the end zone nowadays I'm surprised teams have not just started kicking it off as they normally would. I get it is from the 20 instead of the normal spot. However, take Miami Hedley is at best likely kicking it 60 yards or so but we see Borregales routinely getting it into the end zone. Maybe the height is lower but chances are if each kicked from the 20 Borregales is getting it deeper into the opponents side of the field plus that unit is used to covering that type of kick.
 
wnycanesfan said:
Separate from his decision but given how many kickoffs go into the end zone nowadays I'm surprised teams have not just started kicking it off as they normally would. I get it is from the 20 instead of the normal spot. However, take Miami Hedley is at best likely kicking it 60 yards or so but we see Borregales routinely getting it into the end zone. Maybe the height is lower but chances are if each kicked from the 20 Borregales is getting it deeper into the opponents side of the field plus that unit is used to covering that type of kick.
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You are correct. I'd bet that a lot of kickers could get the distance to put the kick down near the goal line, the only issue is stretching the field for the kicking team so that it is hard to get coverage, and easy for the return team to get a nice return.

It would have to be practiced, but I've always thought that a nice bouncy kick along the grass would be good. You have plenty of open space (return team is more spread out too), and all the bouncing gives the kicking team time to get down in coverage.
 
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