Sorry, guys, but this needs to be imported to the Gaytor Tears thread (it's over in the UF-Kentucky game thread)...
Louisiana up by FIVE on Appalachian State, on their own 35, with 1:51 to go. Gaypier elects to take a SAFETY, cutting the lead to THREE, and making Louisiana take the free kick from the 20. If you stopped the story there, maybe this isn't a big deal. But App State drove the ball down the field, set up for the 30-yard field goal to tie the game, and the only reason Gaypier survived was because App State missed the kick.
"In the weirdest year of the modern era of college football, UL’s intentional safety might have been the most weird. Or bizarre. Or confounding. Or, depending on who you talk to, downright silly. Some believe it was completely unnecessary, absurd and wild—altogether nonsensical. Others agree with the call, describing it as UL coach Billy Napier has: the best option given what had unfolded with his snapper earlier in the game."
And here's what is fast becoming the hallmark of Billy Gaypier...he spun some imaginary story to justify his decision, as if his way was the only possible choice that could have been made:
"When asked about the decision after the Ragin' Cajuns held on for a 24-21 win, Napier defended it, saying, "What would you do? You want to run the snapper and the punter back out there and see if you can do that?"
Leading up to Napier's decision, Louisiana had three bad snaps from long snapper Paul Boudreaux.
"I mean we could do that if you want," Napier said. "But we felt like the best opportunity to win was to take a safety there and make sure we didn't give up a bad play.""
But look at the video.
1. Louisiana snapped the ball to the QB in shotgun formation, with a safety-man behind the QB. So, in theory, (a) the center could have botched the shotgun snap, same as a punt snap, and (b) the punt formation could have had a safety-man behind the punter, who could have then taken a safety IN CASE THE PUNT SNAP WAS BOTCHED, but only if the punt snap was botched.
2. Louisiana's line from the punt was the 35, thus the punt would have been kicked from about the 25, while the line to punt from after a safety is the 20.
3. With a regular punt, you send gunners down the field, thus limiting the return on the punt. On a free kick, nobody can run down the field until the ball is kicked, thus you can get a good return off of a safety free-kick.
And then there is this:
"Analytically, Napier’s decision to intentionally take a safety generated a much lower probability of winning the game than the other options, says Ian O’Connor, a data analyst for the sports analytics company EdjSports.
The Cajuns were at an 83% probability of winning before the fourth-down snap. After the intentional safety, they were at 59%.
The only lower probability among the other options, but barely, was failing to achieve a first down with a fourth-down attempt (56.4%). And what if they had punted? An average punt and return (about 35 yards) would have produced a probability of around 72%. Even a poor net punt of 20 yards would have given the Cajuns a 63.3% chance of winning."
So to sum up, Sunbelt Billy makes poor gameday decisions, and then he tries to bullsh!te people into believing that his poor decisions are actually brilliant decisions.
And he did it again Saturday. TWICE. Two fourth-quarter decisions to go for it on fourth down in his own territory.
Insanity.
But I'm here for it. Never change, Slingblade Billy. Always be true to your illogical brain and your defective analysis. That's why we love you...
