Gamblers- Week 7

[For_The_U]

I like Hawaii +15 a lot. Mad I didn't put them on my 6-point teaser to get them at +21.

Absolutely agree with UCF. This years Memphis team isn't better than last years. Last year they lost to UCF 40-13 and 62-55 in the AAC championship game. This will be Memphis biggest game on the schedule this season and their home. But I just don't see it.

Not only is Memphis not better this year, they are downright terrible. I watched their game against Tulane from start to finish, and while I understand you shouldn't judge a team off one game, they got absolutely dominated in every facet of that football game. I think they are garbage and that UCF bet is gold.

 

[For_The_U]

This is a classic let down game for Miami coming off a big home win against their biggest rival, now have to go on the road and face a lesser team with an extremely mobile QB that traditionally gives Miami fits. Assuming we win, its by a 2ish point margin, not 6+. We've been fans of UM for a long time. We all know how this plays out. Bet accordingly.

No doubt that could happen and that sure is what history seems to be pointing at. But on the other side of the coin, if we go out there and execute and don't shoot ourselves in the foot they do not have the horses to run with us for four quarters.

Personally, i think we win big. I believe that 1st half of the Florida state game was very eye opening for Miami and that they really came together as a team that 2nd half on Saturday. I believe they will be laser focused this weekend and that momentum will continue.

A lot of years where we have struggled with them we have seemed to overlook them as an opponent. I don't at all think players like Jaquan will allow that to happen this weekend. I foresee a fired up team that is ****ed off they didn't blow out Florida state and wants to prove a point on Saturday.

 

[For_The_U]

Some other college games I have my eye on but have not placed a bet on yet...

Ole Miss-6 at Arkansas - ole miss offense can score points and the razorbacks are terrible this year. I dont LOVE this bet, but ill probably end up on it.

Duke @ GT under 55.5 - the triple option kills clock and duke is defensive-minded. I see a low scoring affair but have no clue who will actually win the football game.

Colorado+7 @ USC intrigues me. They are just playing so well as a team right now.

UCF-5 @ Memphis as discussed above. Probably going to put this in today as i think the line will move against UCF.

Okie St-6.5 @ KSU - The history of KSU keeping games tight in Manhatten has just not proven to be the case this year. If the pokes get their offense in sync, this game could be a blowout. Didnt like their play at all last week tho.

Hawaii +14.5 @ BYU as mentioned above is interesting. I keep waiting for the rainbows to prove to be fools gold... and they keep proving me wrong.

But my favorite bet this week for cfb, believe it or not, is canes-6. Im really growing convinced we roll them.

 

[For_The_U]

Any thoughts on App St @ Ark St tonight? I havent followed much of either team this year.

 

[leaderdreee]

NCAA

Tulsa + 7.5
Utah -13.5
Vandy +7
Kansas State +7
Nebraska + 4
Eastern Michigan +1.5
Georgia Tech -2
South Carolina +2
Iowa State + 6
USC -7

NFL
Giants +3
Falcons -3
Redskins -1
Steelers +2.5
Browns +1
Pats -3

 

[Jonnyblaze]

Any thoughts on App St @ Ark St tonight? I havent followed much of either team this year.

Ark St getting a lot of points at home. I just took them +10. App St good but prolly overhyped because of that Penn State game. They haven't played anyone since. App St will win but like Ark St to cover.

 

[linesniper]

"Duke @ GT under 55.5 - the triple option kills clock and duke is defensive-minded. I see a low scoring affair but have no clue who will actually win the football game. "

You might want to cap for the winner of this game first, before going with the a play on the total. GT is a shell of what they used to be, and Duke has a decent squad this year. If Duke jumps out ahead by a couple of a scores, then the triple op attack will be a nonfactor. What you'll be left with is a non-passing team, passing relentlessly n an effort to try and get back in the game. Incompletions stop the clock. Something to think about.
If it goes GT's way, then your take is spot on.

 

[Captain Uberpants]

This is a classic let down game for Miami coming off a big home win against their biggest rival, now have to go on the road and face a lesser team with an extremely mobile QB that traditionally gives Miami fits. Assuming we win, its by a 2ish point margin, not 6+. We've been fans of UM for a long time. We all know how this plays out. Bet accordingly.

Rosier ain’t the QB anymore, he was the #1 reason for offensive struggles against inferior opponents last year.

I’d be much more concerned if it was a noon game but 7pm on national TV. Canes will be up for it.

 

[PhilWood]

Not only is Memphis not better this year, they are downright terrible. I watched their game against Tulane from start to finish, and while I understand you shouldn't judge a team off one game, they got absolutely dominated in every facet of that football game. I think they are garbage and that UCF bet is gold.

Also fun fact in their last 9 games against Memphis, UCF has won by at least a touchdown in all of them. And there have been much more even matchups in the past, including last year. I'm going to be really surprised if this isn't a blowout.

 

[linesniper]

Between NCAA, NFL, playoff baseball, and UFC I bet on way too many games last week but still had a very profitable weekend thanks to an 11-4 Sunday.

Let’s talk about some lines this week:

Miami (-6.5) @ UVA. I got in on this last night and it’s alreay at -7 so I suggest moving now if you’re going to take it. Why is it so low? UVA had a bye, night game, ourQB first road start, emotional week vs FSU, etc. This to me is similar to the Toledo line where it seems too good to be true. I’m hammering this one.

Pitt +21 @ ND. I see a 14-17 point win for ND.

Colorado + 7.5 @ USC. Colorado is having a nice season and USC isn’t what it was.

UW -3.5 @ Oregon. I’d buy the half point. Peterson vs Cristobal? I’ll rolls with Peterson.

Wisconsin +7.5 @ Michigan. Wisconsin has been forgotten about after losing to BYU but I don’t think UM is all that good. These big10 games tend to be close.

Bama-27.5 vs Mizzou. Mizzou isn’t going to slow Bama down. Bama will come out fired up after letting Arkansas keep it close for a quarter or 2 last week.

Penn State -13.5 vs Mich St. Michigan State has looked awful every time I’ve seen them. PSU rolls.

And be careful, here. Missou has a pretty decent QB in Lock, (is on Kiper's draft board, actually), and Bama just lost their starting CB to injury. While I still think Bama will win this game, these factors might make a 28 pt chalk a bit vulnerable, even for a back door cover.

 

[For_The_U]

UCF is at -4.5 now. I just got in and bought it to -4.

 

[Jonnyblaze]

What do the sharps know about Nebraska? Line opened +9 and is now hovering around +4. That's a huge move. I guess they figure Nebraska will stop self destructing and win one.

 

[For_The_U]

Also fun fact in their last 9 games against Memphis, UCF has won by at least a touchdown in all of them. And there have been much more even matchups in the past, including last year. I'm going to be really surprised if this isn't a blowout.

I agree completely. And, man, I just can't get past that performance by Memphis vs Tulane. Watched every play and they were AWFUL! I mean awful doesn't even do it justice. I know it's a rivalry game and at their place, but I can't see anything but UCF getting up big and winning soundly. Of course, "any given Sunday".

 

[For_The_U]

What do the sharps know about Nebraska? Line opened +9 and is now hovering around +4. That's a huge move. I guess they figure Nebraska will stop self destructing and win one.

Good question.

Duke/GT over/under has moved over 2pts as well. I think that's just public money pouring in on under 55.5.

 

[mjl7atlas]

Any chance on Vandy upsetting UiF?

 

[memphisbred]

Also fun fact in their last 9 games against Memphis, UCF has won by at least a touchdown in all of them. And there have been much more even matchups in the past, including last year. I'm going to be really surprised if this isn't a blowout.

Good stuff.

 

[scrantoncane]

UCF is at -4.5 now. I just got in and bought it to -4.

I bet against UCF every week (and lose, obviously), but I think it is Memphis outright this week. That Tulane game you watched, somehow they shut down the Memphis rush attack. Admittedly, I have to go back and see what happened before I bet Memphis this week. But other than that game, they've been killing it with their ground game (8th in nation), and UCF is 90th in rush defense.

My bet is more against UCF than on Memphis, but I think Memphis slows the game down at home and grinds out a win.

NCAA

Utah -13.5 - I love this Utah team but theres 51% of bets and only 31% of money on Utah this week. I hate to see that.
Vandy +7 - I think UF is getting rolling and are still undervalued. Phil Steele No. 1 improved team before the season started.
Kansas State +7 - Love Bill Snyder in this spot.
Nebraska + 4 - won't put money on this team.


Iowa State + 6 - some research to do still, but I think I am with you on these 2
USC -7

 

[scrantoncane]

I never tease, but I am playing Michigan -2 with UCLA +13. Only putting it out now cause that Mich line is moving up.

 

[HighSeas]

Penn State -13.5 vs Mich St. Michigan State has looked awful every time I’ve seen them. PSU rolls.

Maybe so but Mich State has the best run D in CFB right now and when PSU's offense turns 1-dimensional they devolve into McSorley desperately scrambling for 1st downs. He's having a very Rosier-esque season and I wouldn't trust that.

NCAA



NFL
Giants +3
Falcons -3
Redskins -1
Steelers +2.5
Browns +1
Pats -3

Like the Giants and Browns picks assuming their pass rushes take over. Bucs-Falcons will be a shootout so that's a dangerous pick either way. Falcons need Grady Jarrett badly. Washington is a smart pick based on trends. Steelers and Pats are starting to roll so getting discounts on them is nice. Good picks on the surface (except Falcons).

 

[For_The_U]

Maybe so but Mich State has the best run D in CFB right now and when PSU's offense turns 1-dimensional they devolve into McSorley desperately scrambling for 1st downs. He's having a very Rosier-esque season and I wouldn't trust that.



Like the Giants and Browns picks assuming their pass rushes take over. Bucs-Falcons will be a shootout so that's a dangerous pick either way. Falcons need Grady Jarrett badly. Washington is a smart pick based on trends. Steelers and Pats are starting to roll so getting discounts on them is nice. Good picks on the surface (except Falcons).

I thought the same re the Steelers starting to click last week and so I bet them vs the Ravens. I won't be doing that again.