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Gamblers- Week 7

Captain Uberpants

Captain Uberpants

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Jul 9, 2013
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Between NCAA, NFL, playoff baseball, and UFC I bet on way too many games last week but still had a very profitable weekend thanks to an 11-4 Sunday.

Let’s talk about some lines this week:

Miami (-6.5) @ UVA. I got in on this last night and it’s alreay at -7 so I suggest moving now if you’re going to take it. Why is it so low? UVA had a bye, night game, ourQB first road start, emotional week vs FSU, etc. This to me is similar to the Toledo line where it seems too good to be true. I’m hammering this one.

Pitt +21 @ ND. I see a 14-17 point win for ND.

Colorado + 7.5 @ USC. Colorado is having a nice season and USC isn’t what it was.

UW -3.5 @ Oregon. I’d buy the half point. Peterson vs Cristobal? I’ll rolls with Peterson.

Wisconsin +7.5 @ Michigan. Wisconsin has been forgotten about after losing to BYU but I don’t think UM is all that good. These big10 games tend to be close.

Bama-27.5 vs Mizzou. Mizzou isn’t going to slow Bama down. Bama will come out fired up after letting Arkansas keep it close for a quarter or 2 last week.

Penn State -13.5 vs Mich St. Michigan State has looked awful every time I’ve seen them. PSU rolls.
 
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Solid pick, capt, and congrats on a great sunday!

Im going to pound that miami line right now. My only concern is that uva always seems to play us tight especially in the ville. But i think Miami rolls this year.
 
For_The_U said:
Solid pick, capt, and congrats on a great sunday!

Im going to pound that miami line right now. My only concern is that uva always seems to play us tight especially in the ville. But i think Miami rolls this year.
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Got it at -6 just now. I think thats the bottom out though. I see it closing at 7 or just slightly over.
 
For_The_U said:
Solid pick, capt, and congrats on a great sunday!

Im going to pound that miami line right now. My only concern is that uva always seems to play us tight especially in the ville. But i think Miami rolls this year.
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I think we roll too, 42-17 something like that. Even a 28-21 below average performance gets us that $$$.
 
So much for bottoming out... Miami line now -5.5 on my book. I'm already locked in at 6 though.
 
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If anybody thinks we roll in this game they’re insane. Just hoping we get out of their with any W. Night game, hungover from FSU, mobile QB, & UVA has played us tough in recent years.
 
Canedog said:
Back in the day when I played poker for a living and spent too much time in Vegas, I had the opportunity to talk to a couple of the few really successful sport gamblers. They all said the mistake the casual gambler makes in sports betting/college football is betting on their favorite team too often and betting on too many favored teams in general. Dem dogs eat mo often than you think.
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The same gambling formula holds true in thoroughbred racing. Too many degenerates play the favorites too much, and the favorite only wins " THIRTY-THREE PERCENT " of the time. That's usually 3 races of a 9 race card. And that's generally an overall average, because the percentages tend to change from track to track. For example, there's a reason why they call Saratoga the " grave yard of favorites. ":rolleyes: Also, the Fairgrounds is a quagmire for playing the favorites too many times. Ouch.
 
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I know all the elements are there for a trap game for us this weekend, but I just don't see it. We go out and execute, we will beat them soundly.
 
mackjones said:
The same gambling formula holds true in thoroughbred racing. Too many degenerates play the favorites too much, and the favorite only wins " THIRTY-THREE PERCENT " of the time. That's usually 3 races of a 9 race card. And that's generally an overall average, because the percentages tend to change from track to track. For example, there's a reason why they call Saratoga the " grave yard of favorites. ":rolleyes: Also, the Fairgrounds is a quagmire for playing the favorites too many times. Ouch.
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I prefer maiden races and Pick 4's and Pick 5's. That is where the money is.
 
I feel like every time a line moves hard in one direction there is a darn good reason for it. This doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies.
 
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I agree with you about Washington. If they have any hope of making the CFP they need to not only win but run up the scores for the rest of their games.
 
What about VT -5.5 and UCF -4.5. UNC is terrible and if VT can win big on the road in Duke I can't imagine them struggling with UNC. Memphis is UCF's biggest competition up to this point, but that doesn't mean they're good. I've had a rule that if I can get UCF less than a 2 touchdown favorite against a team they're clearly better than I take it. It's worked every time this season.

Also Hawaii +15 at BYU. If Cole McDonald plays, I could actually see Hawaii winning this game. BYU's offense is inept and Hawaii will score at least twice. Twice would be enough to cover.
 
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PhilWood said:
What about VT -5.5 and UCF -4.5. UNC is terrible and if VT can win big on the road in Duke I can't imagine them struggling with UNC. Memphis is UCF's biggest competition up to this point, but that doesn't mean they're good. I've had a rule that if I can get UCF less than a 2 touchdown favorite against a team they're clearly better than I take it. It's worked every time this season.

Also Hawaii +15 at BYU. If Cole McDonald plays, I could actually see Hawaii winning this game. BYU's offense is inept and Hawaii will score at least twice. Twice would be enough to cover.
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I like Hawaii +15 a lot. Mad I didn't put them on my 6-point teaser to get them at +21.

Absolutely agree with UCF. This years Memphis team isn't better than last years. Last year they lost to UCF 40-13 and 62-55 in the AAC championship game. This will be Memphis biggest game on the schedule this season and their home. But I just don't see it.
 
Line jumped back to -6 with 71% of the public on Miami according to Covers. Hammered it.

It's going to move again soon so jump on that number while you can.
 
ZBHCane said:
I feel like every time a line moves hard in one direction there is a darn good reason for it. This doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies.
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Early money is usually always on the dog, and this is a home dog at that. It's already correcting itself.
 
This is a classic let down game for Miami coming off a big home win against their biggest rival, now have to go on the road and face a lesser team with an extremely mobile QB that traditionally gives Miami fits. Assuming we win, its by a 2ish point margin, not 6+. We've been fans of UM for a long time. We all know how this plays out. Bet accordingly.
 
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