I'd say difficulty is expected to be:
ND > UF > Louisville / SMU > FSU (Just due to Rivalry I believe it'll be close) > NCSt > VTech > Syracuse > Pitt > Stanford > USF > Bethune
In terms of Importance I'd say:
Lousiville / SMU > ND > FSU / UF > NCST > Syracuse > VTech > Pitt > Stanford > USF > Bethune
Of course ND and UF are pretty much irrelevant when it comes to making the ACC Championship Game, which given they should be our 2 toughest and earliest games is a good thing. If we only lose 1 ACC game I think we are in the ACCCG against Clemson.
I think the key game is really Louisville. Obviously NCSt and after on this list should all be expected wins, no excuses. FSU is a rivalry so even if I don't think they're very good I usually expect it to be close. I'd still expect the win of course. Louisville and SMU are the keys to the season, so as long as we beat one of them, I really like our chances. And the good news is we do have a bye before Louisville and it's at home on a Friday. So I view that one as the game we absolutely gotta have. Losing to Lousiville puts a LOT of pressure on the SMU game for sure.
I don't actually view the ND game as something that'll likely end up telling us too much, like It's probably more telling to how we'd perform in playoffs or against clemson than it is running the table in ACC tbh. ND is just going to be so much more different than anyone else we play on our ACC Schedule. Like even if we come out and kill ND, I won't think that will be a very good indicator on how we'll perform against Louisville and SMU who are our 2 most important games of the season. because A) Its game 1, B) ND will be starting a true frosh while Lousville and SMU will have pretty good proven QBs and C) I think they will have by far the best defense we play in the regular season, and it won't even be close.
10-2 is what I'd predict. I'd pick us to go 11-1 before 9-3 though. And Honestly I'd pick us to beat ND before I picked us to beat SMU AND Louisville.