2019 LSU has to stop 2013 FSU who averaged 51 points and it coulda been more because they were often ahead by 35-40 points by halftime. Thats you problem here. There's almost as potent offense coming at you and you have a mediocre defense. Huge mismatch.
Alright, I am so glad that data and math exist so I can shut this down once and for all.
1. LSU´s defense was not mediocre. They ranked 11th in Opponent-Adjusted-Efficiency (DFEI) - because, unlike FSU, LSU actually played potent offensive teams on their schedule. According to OFEI, LSU played 9th Texas, 11th Florida, 32nd Auburn, 2nd Alabama, 44th Ole Miss, 30th Texas A&M, 18th Georgia, 4th Oklahoma and 5th Clemson. Out of 15 opponents played, nine of them had Top 45 offensive units in the country, six of them were in the Top 20 and four of them were in the Top 10. And despite playing the 2nd-hardest schedule in the country on offense, their defense ranked 32nd in points allowed. Hardly "mediocre", so that statement is already bull**** to begin with.
2. Florida State, on the other hand, by the same metric choices, played 46th Boston College, 19th Clemson, 20th Miami, 42nd Duke and 9th Auburn. Not only did FSU play less good teams in absolute numbers, none of the teams even remotely match the firepower LSU had to face. In fact, FSUs biggest opponent was Auburn in the Championship game, with a QB who was a DB, no firepower in the receiving corps and a game that Auburn easily could have won. If anything, Florida States defense is gigantically overrated - as
@Memnon proved by showing what happened when FSU played an actually good football team in Oregon a year later. 62nd hardest schedule.
3. Now lets look at the offensive numbers in OFEI. Once again, we split into the Top 50 section. LSU played 42nd Texas, 15th Florida, 3rd Auburn, 9th Alabama, 44th Ole Miss, 20th Texas A&M, 4th Georgia and 1st Clemson. They averaged 42,8 points facing eight Top 50 opponents, four of them in the Top 10, scoring 35+ points against everyone except Auburn. They faced the seventh-hardest schedule according to OFEI. Clearly an elite unit that is not only well-tested but performed all the way through the year.
4. Florida State in 2013, under those same clear rules that we have established, played 49th Pittsburgh, 18th Clemson, 36th Wake Forest, 4th Florida and 25th Auburn. Once again, not only less quality opponents, but also worse at the top. That sums up to be the 61st-hardest schedule of opposing defenses. Once again, a mediocre schedule. FSU scored 44,4 points per game in these matchups, so the difference between the dominant FSU facing mediocre competition and the completely overrated LSU Tigers who faced more elite competition is a mere 1,6 points - or a safety.
All of this yappity yap yap yap about mismatches only for math and data to prove a point that I could not have explained better even if I tried. Its easy to pull your starters when you are not playing anyone. Not only did the data clearly prove LSU to be the far superior team, it also proved that Florida State is gigantically overrated in the entire conversation.
Sources:
bcftoys.com
bcftoys.com
bcftoys.com
bcftoys.com
