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For the star guys

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RedSquare said:
and at least 50% of the guys in that first round won't be in the league in 4 years, or will be such busts, they might as well go away and save themselves from further humiliation.

but it makes sense. a bunch of former postal clerks slap di*king high school kids, are always going to be better at talent evaluation than teams of NFL scouts armed with mega resources.

if the star system proves anything, it only proves that it's accurate PART of time. Problem is, you never know which part.
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Use your head. If a guy is drafted in the 1st round that means 99% of the time he had a pretty solid college career. That is exactly the type of guys we should be going after.

Do you think a college coach would turn down a kid who kills it in college, gets drafted 1st round, and ends up being a bust in the NFL like Tebow.
 
Hurracanes said:
That tells me stars matter. However, there are exceptions. Look at all the championships the last 20 years and tell me why starts don't matter..
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Stars do matter and sprinkled with a lot of other factors too!

If stars were all it takes, then Alabama should win every NCG! Last I checked they got clobbered and blown out the stadium in embarrassing style!

With the stars it takes good evaluation , good coaching and knowing how to deal with some of the divas that comes with those 5 stars.

I will give Clemson a lot of credit. The last few years they only had a hand full of recruits and the ones they got performed up to their coaches evaluation and potential.

Larry Corker chased the stars and he was a terrible talent evaluator. His guys hardly ever pan out and under his tenure he started the “U” ship to sink!

Give me Jimmy, Butch, Dabo (as much as it pains me to say it) and now from the way Diaz is bringing in talent and how he and his coaches are performing up to this point I’ll take them over just chasing stars. These guy are proven great talen evaluators! And most hardly ever get a top 10 recruiting class.
 
In other news....top rated high school prospects....go to top rated college programs....where they receive top rated player development and media exposure....and are most likely to be drafted high by NFL teams.

I personally don't argue that much against the star system but it is also easy to see sometimes where NFL teams were being "lazy" and overrating Baga or even SEC players in general for a pretty long stretch there and of courrrrrse all those guys were 5 star types just because they got the Baga offer.
 
Agree with the sentiment that greater exposure can matter, but the money is too big for teams to be "lazy". Read the Undoing Project by Michael Lewis. Part of it is an interesting look into NBA front offices. Everyone is trying to moneyball and beat the system but at some point it's tough to overcome raw physical measurables (in most cases, of course). The CIS staff has done great work identifying those characteristics which correlate to success. OL is tougher to project but a lot of the other spots will be apparent out of high school.
 
OriginalGatorHater said:
Use your head. If a guy is drafted in the 1st round that means 99% of the time he had a pretty solid college career. That is exactly the type of guys we should be going after.

Do you think a college coach would turn down a kid who kills it in college, gets drafted 1st round, and ends up being a bust in the NFL like Tebow.
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Exactly, all those 5 and high 4 stars Saban and Dabo keep landing sure seem to be helping them out a bit
 
jjjrcanes said:
Stars do matter and sprinkled with a lot of other factors too!

If stars were all it takes, then Alabama should win every NCG! Last I checked they got clobbered and blown out the stadium in embarrassing style!

With the stars it takes good evaluation , good coaching and knowing how to deal with some of the divas that comes with those 5 stars.

I will give Clemson a lot of credit. The last few years they only had a hand full of recruits and the ones they got performed up to their coaches evaluation and potential.

Larry Corker chased the stars and he was a terrible talent evaluator. His guys hardly ever pan out and under his tenure he started the “U” ship to sink!

Give me Jimmy, Butch, Dabo (as much as it pains me to say it) and now from the way Diaz is bringing in talent and how he and his coaches are performing up to this point I’ll take them over just chasing stars. These guy are proven great talen evaluators! And most hardly ever get a top 10 recruiting class.
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The good ones land the highly rated guys AND develop them. It’s hard to win without either of the two.
 
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Draft order is not a direct correlation with college success though. There's a ton of guys who were considered 4 and 5 star talent coming out of high school, had great college careers but for whatever reason the NFL wasn't really interested. The best example used to be option quarterbacks. There were tons of run first dudes who were great college QBs but never played a down in the NFL. Now the trend has shifted to running backs. The NFL doesn't value running backs the same way college teams do. How many 4 a 5 star players are running backs? How many running backs are first round picks these days. A guy like Duke Johnson was a high 4 star recruit, balled out at Miami and left the school's all time leading rusher. He gets picked in the 3rd round.
 
OriginalGatorHater said:
Use your head. If a guy is drafted in the 1st round that means 99% of the time he had a pretty solid college career. That is exactly the type of guys we should be going after.

Do you think a college coach would turn down a kid who kills it in college, gets drafted 1st round, and ends up being a bust in the NFL like Tebow.
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No doubt. Agreed.

But I'm advocating caution. It's dangerous to assume that: (a) only 5 star HS kids can be those kind if guys, and (b) if you're not, you likely won't be.

It assumes a reliability and infallibility to an open, (and actually entropic), system that doesn't exist.
 
DTP said:
Draft order is not a direct correlation with college success though. There's a ton of guys who were considered 4 and 5 star talent coming out of high school, had great college careers but for whatever reason the NFL wasn't really interested. The best example used to be option quarterbacks. There were tons of run first dudes who were great college QBs but never played a down in the NFL. Now the trend has shifted to running backs. The NFL doesn't value running backs the same way college teams do. How many 4 a 5 star players are running backs? How many running backs are first round picks these days. A guy like Duke Johnson was a high 4 star recruit, balled out at Miami and left the school's all time leading rusher. He gets picked in the 3rd round.
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this too.
 
Aren't we all star guys to a certain degree, or is there a secret criteria for evaluating prospects?
 
Stars matter, period. Your foundation gotta be the 5 & 4 star players, supplemented by highly regarded 3 star players with a couple of diamond in the roughs.

If you’re roster is filled w majority 3 star players, a couple of four star players, and a few diamond in the rough, even with the best coaching, your ceiling is a TCU or OK St, at best.
 
jjjrcanes said:
If stars were all it takes, then Alabama should win every NCG! Last I checked they got clobbered and blown out the stadium in embarrassing style!
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This is a bold statement seeing as 1) Alabama has won 5 of the last 10 national championships, and 2) the only team that has beaten them in the playoff era were powered by five stars themselves (Watson, Cain, McCloud, Hyatt, Wilkins, Lawrence, Lamar, Higgins, Ross and Lawrence).
 
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It’s really simple
when we get the stars, they matter
When we don’t get the stars, they don’t matter

It’s called the cis effect
 
RedSquare said:
and at least 50% of the guys in that first round won't be in the league in 4 years, or will be such busts, they might as well go away and save themselves from further humiliation.

but it makes sense. a bunch of former postal clerks slap di*king high school kids, are always going to be better at talent evaluation than teams of NFL scouts armed with mega resources.

if the star system proves anything, it only proves that it's accurate PART of time. Problem is, you never know which part.
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The average career in the NFL is 3 years. So what's your point?

And your wrong about the "50% of those guys not being in the league in 4 years". The actual data shows that the average career length of a first rounder is actually 9 YEARS. Yeah, stars matter considering 5 stars have the highest percentage of going pro than any other classification.
 
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