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FOOTBALL SEASON CHANCES

Ash Joshi said:
You are right, but who in their right mind would go and stand shoulder to shoulder with 50-100,000 strangers pre-vaccine? In my opinion, the lack of fans is less about government mandates and more about individual common sense. Personally I could care less about attending an event of any kind, but if the players are not at risk then I would enjoy watching the games. But we have ensure that the players are not in danger, no matter what that redneck buffoon Cale Grundy says.
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In September, I would. The risk is nowhere near what you seem to imagine it is, in my opinion.
 
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Ash Joshi said:
Actually, of the participants, 8 produced antibodies whereas others did not. I’m glad there is hope, and Moderna’s stock price increased by 25% at the opening bell. But whether it is true progress or just hope remains to be seen.
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Not true. We just don’t have enough time yet beyond the 8 participants, which represent antibodies in 100% of those for which scientifically reliable data can be taken.

Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273) Against Novel Coronavirus | Moderna, Inc.

After two doses all participants evaluated to date across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts seroconverted with binding antibody levels at or above levels seen in convalescent sera mRNA-1273 elicited neutralizing antibody titer levels in all eight initial participants across the 25 µg and 100 µg
investors.modernatx.com investors.modernatx.com

Excerpt: After two doses all participants evaluated to date across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts seroconverted with binding antibody levels at or above levels seen in convalescent sera.

So much disinformation, so casually conveyed with such “certainty”.
 
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PatrickCane said:
I don't think so. Both college and pro teams get 40% of their revenue from fans (tickets, parking, concessions, etc). No business can take a 40% haircut and still survive. It's not a coincidence that schools are saying they cannot do college football without the student body on campus. They really are saying without the student body in the stands. NFL is no different. The TV contracts are not enough....

Love the Beast pic.
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Not sure where you’re getting this 40% baseline. TV contracts in college football vary greatly. The Big10 TV deal pays it’s members $54 million each. SEC $43 million, BigXII $34.7 and ACC/Pac12 schools get $29.5 million each. TV money is how the big boys get paid. It’s what keeps the athletic departments at P5 schools in the black. Now the drop off to G5 programs or even FCS is huge. Most of those schools were technically losing money just by having an athletic department before the caronavirus.
 
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DTP said:
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Not sure where you’re getting this 40% baseline. TV contracts in college football vary greatly. The Big10 TV deal pays it’s members $54 million each. SEC $43 million, BigXII $34.7 and ACC/Pac12 schools get $29.5 million each. TV money is how the big boys get paid. It’s what keeps the athletic departments at P5 schools in the black. Now the drop off to G5 programs or even FCS is huge. Most of those schools were technically losing money just by having an athletic department before the caronavirus.
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“I can’t comprehend it (Playing with no fans), especially looking at our place where you have facilities built specifically for housing these large gatherings, 100,000-plus people,” Texas A&M athletic director Ross Bjork told the Dallas Morning News, “and you have financing related to that based on ticket sales and advertising and suite sales and donations.

“So the whole model rises and falls based on football. If there’s no spectators maybe we can play, but if there’s no spectators, the economics just don’t work. That’s what we have to focus on is that long-term picture.”


That's Texas A&M's AD saying it, not me. I am sure he, after reviewing the accounting, came to the same conclusion I did.
 
It's Alabama, but it' doesn't paint a great picture for a lack of ticket sales.

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Don’t forget the economic impact of home game Saturday’s.

We’ll see fans in the stands this year.
 
g8rh8rMD said:
Don’t forget the economic impact of home game Saturday’s.

We’ll see fans in the stands this year.
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Understandably so, the main topic is whether or not we have CFB and Pro football games and the economic impact to those entities if we do or don't. But an underlying issue not mentioned much is the impact to many small businesses that rely on games being played for their lively hood. When the onion is peeled back, there are many layers to the consequences of playing or not.
 
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JD08 said:
It's from a 2014 Business Insider article.
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Yeah I think the most recent SEC tv deal was after that. They have a new one for 2022 that pays them even more than the big10.
 
Yes, the loss of ticket sales would hurt. But because everyone would be watching on TV, I expect TV revenues could increase for teams. If the networks were faced with paying schools more or having no games at on TV at all, there’s a chance something could be worked out.

Plus, there may be some fans in the stadium. It’s too early to know, but proposals have been floated to seat a partial stadium. So I don’t want to hear about the economics, it’s much worse for the players and owners and everyone employed by the teams to have no season and it’s not really debatable.
 
DTP said:
Either that pie chart is old or it’s incorrect. Alabama makes $44 million from the SEC TV contract alone.
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Let's break down that 44 million. The coaching staff eats up 18.4 million in salary alone. Add in another 3.5 million in undocumented perks (Housing/car allowances, food allowances, 1 mil per year to Nick's favorite charity, his use of the private jet, etc) and that easily gets us to 22 million. What about operating expenses to train, feed, house, travel (3 million alone in travel) and recruit 120 athletes (85 plus walk-ons) to the level that Nick will expect (Last year, 2.6 million alone was spent on recruiting at Bama)? What about maintenance on equipment and facilities (Taxes on property as well)? What about salaries for support staff (team doctors, trainers, etc)? Last year it was 4.4 million in salary alone. Then the athletic department had 6.6 million in severance pay that they have no legal way to get out of (Avery Johnson paid to go away, among others). The team also spent 1.47 million on medical insurance for players/coaches/support staff.

That 44 million is running out quickly.

The next issue is that the only other profitable program is basketball. The AD will have to tell every other coach and athlete at the school that they are unemployed, because the money that came from football ticket sales is what the school uses to fund those other sports. There will be no revenue to pay the coaches or to fund the scholarships for the students. I am sure many of those coaches have contracts, and will require the school to pay severance.


Will the networks give more money to the schools if its TV only? What is their incentive to do that? They have a contract. They are running a business too.

There is an emotional component to playing football with no fans in the stands just so we as a society have football. I get that. I am looking for the economic way for that to make sense. Currently, I don't see that as viable (With no fans) but maybe someone can show a realistic way. I believe it is full stands or no football. To me, empty stadiums are not a viable option.
 
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Poptimus said:
This news will devastate the chicken little porster contingent.
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In this context, isn't it obvious that "Chicken Little" represents the sane vision and that Homo Sapiens' motto, "Let's go shopping!" is the cry of the true lunatic?
 
PatrickCane said:
Let's break down that 44 million. The coaching staff eats up 18.4 million in salary alone. Add in another 3.5 million in undocumented perks (Housing/car allowances, food allowances, 1 mil per year to Nick's favorite charity, his use of the private jet, etc) and that easily gets us to 22 million. What about operating expenses to train, feed, house, travel (3 million alone in travel) and recruit 120 athletes (85 plus walk-ons) to the level that Nick will expect (Last year, 2.6 million alone was spent on recruiting at Bama)? What about maintenance on equipment and facilities (Taxes on property as well)? What about salaries for support staff (team doctors, trainers, etc)? Last year it was 4.4 million in salary alone. Then the athletic department had 6.6 million in severance pay that they have no legal way to get out of (Avery Johnson paid to go away, among others). The team also spent 1.47 million on medical insurance for players/coaches/support staff.

That 44 million is running out quickly.

The next issue is that the only other profitable program is basketball. The AD will have to tell every other coach and athlete at the school that they are unemployed, because the money that came from football ticket sales is what the school uses to fund those other sports. There will be no revenue to pay the coaches or to fund the scholarships for the students. I am sure many of those coaches have contracts, and will require the school to pay severance.


Will the networks give more money to the schools if its TV only? What is their incentive to do that? They have a contract. They are running a business too.

There is an emotional component to playing football with no fans in the stands just so we as a society have football. I get that. I am looking for the economic way for that to make sense. Currently, I don't see that as viable (With no fans) but maybe someone can show a realistic way. I believe it is full stands or no football. To me, empty stadiums are not a viable option.
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The pie chart says Alabama grosses 88 million on football. I know for a fact that $43 million is solely from the SEC TV contract.

They can make some revenue or no revenue.
 
rokulika said:
In this context, isn't it obvious that "Chicken Little" represents the sane vision and that Homo Sapiens' motto, "Let's go shopping!" is the cry of the true lunatic?
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I think those people who want to go shopping right now face an exponentially greater chance of getting killed in a car accident on the way to the store than by contracting COVID-19 at the store.
 
DTP said:
The pie chart says Alabama grosses 88 million on football. I know for a fact that $43 million is solely from the SEC TV contract.

They can make some revenue or no revenue.
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Ticket revenue was 39.1 million at Alabama last season. Again, running an athletic department without 39.1 million in revenue is going to be a non-starter for the schools. They need full stadiums or it doesn't work.
 
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