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Fiscal Reality

Empirical Cane

Empirical Cane

We are what we repeatedly do.
Joined
Sep 3, 2018
Messages
44,711
Big Manny's buyout, I believe, is north of $50MM presently.

Miami doesn't have that money, and even if they did, it would be immoral.

This season's corch hiring bonanza is going to be...interesting.

We are likely to see the era of performance incentive contracts with much less guarantees and far more flexibility to Institutions...ditto for NIL. Miami would probably struggle to compete on the high-end this cycle.

Miami's likely stuck in a USC-esque maliase for several years and in the JUCO quality ACC with below market payments. JFC.

Make no mistake, this season's disaster is likely, not certainly, to have negative knock-on effects for years...to include hampering joining SEC/B1G.
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Big Manny's buyout, I believe, is north of $50MM presently.

Miami doesn't have that money, and even if they did, it would be immoral.

This season's corch hiring bonanza is going to be...interesting.

We are likely to see the era of performance incentive contracts with much less guarantees and far more flexibility to Institutions...ditto for NIL. Miami would probably struggle to compete on the high-end this cycle.

Miami's likely stuck in a USC-esque maliase for several years and in the JUCO quality ACC and below market payments as well.

Make no mistake, this season's disaster is likely, not certainly, to have negative knock-on effects flr years.
Click to expand...
But are we FSU Tears Poor or VT Tears Poor?
 
Empirical Cane said:
Big Manny's buyout, I believe, is north of $50MM presently.

Miami doesn't have that money, and even if they did, it would be immoral.

This season's corch hiring bonanza is going to be...interesting.

We are likely to see the era of performance incentive contracts with much less guarantees and far more flexibility to Institutions...ditto for NIL. Miami would probably struggle to compete on the high-end this cycle.

Miami's likely stuck in a USC-esque maliase for several years and in the JUCO quality ACC with below market payments. JFC.

Make no mistake, this season's disaster is likely, not certainly, to have negative knock-on effects for years...to include hampering joining SEC/B1G.
Click to expand...

Hopefully it’ll force Miami to hire an actual coach. Someone with no ties to the school or state who doesn’t fit in with this “culture.” Miami’s only hope of being good again is hiring the football version of Coach L.
 
Empirical Cane said:
Big Manny's buyout, I believe, is north of $50MM presently.

Miami doesn't have that money, and even if they did, it would be immoral.

This season's corch hiring bonanza is going to be...interesting.

We are likely to see the era of performance incentive contracts with much less guarantees and far more flexibility to Institutions...ditto for NIL. Miami would probably struggle to compete on the high-end this cycle.

Miami's likely stuck in a USC-esque maliase for several years and in the JUCO quality ACC with below market payments. JFC.

Make no mistake, this season's disaster is likely, not certainly, to have negative knock-on effects for years.
Click to expand...

Mario’s not getting fired. I think most intelligent people see how bad Beck has been and realize this was inevitable. The lesson I hope Mario learns is that we need a dual threat QB.
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Make no mistake, this season's disaster is likely, not certainly, to have negative knock-on effects for years...to include hampering joining SEC/B1G.
Click to expand...
Agree that we are stuck in a good but never great tier of teams. Year 4 and Mario can't even make the ACCCG, never mind the playoffs.
But we still draw eyes, and that's what the SEC/B1G care about. Obviously we have to continue to win games to get the ABC/ESPN games, but we have the best viewership numbers in the ACC so far this year and will probably finish there.
 
Va Tech - Pitt- and NC state can beat us. How bad we regressed from the UF game 🤦🏻‍♂️ why does this happen to us?
 
Mario is not getting fired but he has reached a crossroad in his tenure. The temperature on his seat has been slightly raised.

The question is will Mario swallow his pride and seek help to fix his shortcomings (horrible game day coach and a predictable running game philosophy)… or will he keep doing the same things because he wants to prove that he’s right?

If he actively chooses to seek help to mitigate his shortcomings he actually can be a great one given the floor he provides (excellent recruiter and program builder).

If he refuses to improve himself and keeps doing the same things - he will be gone in 2-3 years. His clock has started.
 
canes518 said:
Agree that we are stuck in a good but never great tier of teams. Year 4 and Mario can't even make the ACCCG, never mind the playoffs.
But we still draw eyes, and that's what the SEC/B1G care about. Obviously we have to continue to win games to get the ABC/ESPN games, but we have the best viewership numbers in the ACC so far this year and will probably finish there.
Click to expand...
No offense friend...

Having best viewership numbers in ACC is like being the tastiest fat guy at a head hunter's banquet (I refrained from several other more harsh analogies).

To be sure, Miami's numbers have been tops in ACC, but when you lay it all out #1-n for college football, I think Miami's best games struggle to break into the top 5 or 10.

Someone talk me off the ledge with that whomever is in the media biz....
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Big Manny's buyout, I believe, is north of $50MM presently.

Miami doesn't have that money, and even if they did, it would be immoral.

This season's corch hiring bonanza is going to be...interesting.

We are likely to see the era of performance incentive contracts with much less guarantees and far more flexibility to Institutions...ditto for NIL. Miami would probably struggle to compete on the high-end this cycle.

Miami's likely stuck in a USC-esque maliase for several years and in the JUCO quality ACC with below market payments. JFC.

Make no mistake, this season's disaster is likely, not certainly, to have negative knock-on effects for years...to include hampering joining SEC/B1G.
Click to expand...


The buyout is definitely massive — no debate there. And yeah, Miami isn’t in a position to casually write a $50M check just to reset. But that’s exactly why the next phase of college football is shifting away from these guaranteed monster deals. Schools (and donors) finally hit the wall on the “blank check for hope” approach.

Where I disagree a bit is on the idea that Miami is doomed to sit in purgatory for years. This era moves fast. The same environment that's hurting Mario is the one that can shorten rebuilds — IF the right model is adopted.

NIL + transfer portal means:
  • You can rebuild quickly if you're aligned and modern
  • You can fall apart quickly if you’re not
That cuts both ways.

Look around — USC, LSU, Miami… that whole 2021 splash-hire class is feeling the same pain. Big names and big contracts don’t guarantee adaptation. This is a structural era now, not a personality era.

As for Miami "struggling to compete" financially — that's true today.
But here’s the flip side:
  • Miami doesn't need to outspend SEC/B1G programs dollar-for-dollar
  • Miami needs to out-think the old model first
  • Efficiency > ego hiring
A disciplined, modern approach can beat a bloated one in this landscape. The schools that adapt fastest win — not just the richest ones. See: FSU’s roster rebuild, Louisville flipping quickly, even SMU climbing with structure.


The worst thing Miami could do now is panic and double down on the past.
The best thing would be acknowledging that the next wave of winning programs will be built like startups, not legacy corporations:

Incentive-driven coaching contracts
Smarter NIL allocation, not louder
Coordinators + development as core assets
Scheme + portal alignment

If Mario fixes it? Great.
If he doesn’t? We’ll know much faster than in the old era — and the blueprint will be clearer.

Miami’s not stuck — we’re in the hinge moment of a sport reinventing itself. The programs that see it first will come out ahead.

This feels painful now, but it’s also the inflection point. The question isn't “can Miami get back?” — it’s who embraces the new model first?

And Miami can be that school — if it chooses strategy over nostalgia.
 
TboneJones said:
The buyout is definitely massive — no debate there. And yeah, Miami isn’t in a position to casually write a $50M check just to reset. But that’s exactly why the next phase of college football is shifting away from these guaranteed monster deals. Schools (and donors) finally hit the wall on the “blank check for hope” approach.

Where I disagree a bit is on the idea that Miami is doomed to sit in purgatory for years. This era moves fast. The same environment that's hurting Mario is the one that can shorten rebuilds — IF the right model is adopted.

NIL + transfer portal means:
  • You can rebuild quickly if you're aligned and modern
  • You can fall apart quickly if you’re not
That cuts both ways.

Look around — USC, LSU, Miami… that whole 2021 splash-hire class is feeling the same pain. Big names and big contracts don’t guarantee adaptation. This is a structural era now, not a personality era.

As for Miami "struggling to compete" financially — that's true today.
But here’s the flip side:
  • Miami doesn't need to outspend SEC/B1G programs dollar-for-dollar
  • Miami needs to out-think the old model first
  • Efficiency > ego hiring
A disciplined, modern approach can beat a bloated one in this landscape. The schools that adapt fastest win — not just the richest ones. See: FSU’s roster rebuild, Louisville flipping quickly, even SMU climbing with structure.


The worst thing Miami could do now is panic and double down on the past.
The best thing would be acknowledging that the next wave of winning programs will be built like startups, not legacy corporations:

Incentive-driven coaching contracts
Smarter NIL allocation, not louder
Coordinators + development as core assets
Scheme + portal alignment

If Mario fixes it? Great.
If he doesn’t? We’ll know much faster than in the old era — and the blueprint will be clearer.

Miami’s not stuck — we’re in the hinge moment of a sport reinventing itself. The programs that see it first will come out ahead.

This feels painful now, but it’s also the inflection point. The question isn't “can Miami get back?” — it’s who embraces the new model first?

And Miami can be that school — if it chooses strategy over nostalgia.
Click to expand...
Well said....and I agree.

My point was centered on while Big Manny remains.

Of course tbe right leader can right the course of tbe ship, but our SS Canes is a long way from that dock.
 
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