I understand grading and there’s no way in **** his first four games, against mid majors, FCS schools and TAMU was so good, him being terrible in his last two appearances was washed away. I could buy him being top 20 after that, not top 5. PFF has always been a bit sketchy in their grades, especially with QBs, it’s almost like no one watches the actual games and they take the stat line and go from there.
The larger the sample size, the better their grading is imo. Game to game I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into it. This is over 7 games. Solid size, but biased towards the easy non-conference games. Their QB grading I actually think is decently solid. At the very least it's far better than random fans that post on message boards. They watch all the throws and assign a value from -2 to +2. And their graders watch more than TVD. They don't have it out or for TVD I can assure you lol.
He had 99 attempts against miamiOH, A&M, Bethune, and Temple. Those Games he legit played great in. His last 3 games he's had 114 attempts against GTech, UNC, and UVA. In the first 4 games there were very few if any negative plays, and a lot of positive plays. In the last 3 there have been more negative plays, but there could also have been a bunch of positive plays still. So the part people may not get, is that while he's thrown a lot of picks his last 3 games, I wouldn't actually say he's had a whole **** of a lot more that have been dropped by the defenders really. Like most of his bad plays, really do show up in the stat sheet. Also when grading the QBs throws, what is the difference in a OC that has faith in and designs great easy plays that are wide open 10 yards down the field, and an OC who has no faith in so is also designing easy plays for the QB to make that are like 3-5 yard dunk passes? In both situation a play is being called that the QB is being asked to throw. In both situations the play would likely be a 0 or .5pt grade for the QB. Yet the result for the actual team are quite different. The Qb is being judged on the pass, not the play call or how the OC is designing/calling games based on the QB...
For example Brock Purdy on the 49ers was getting solid/good but not great grades from PFF the first like 5 weeks of the season. That's because he had a lot of wide *** open throws, and a bunch of "turnover-worthy" plays. But none of those plays ended up being a turnover. So what is the result? The 49ers are cruising, and the National media is saying he's great and MVP favorite. 3 weeks later and those turnover-worthy plays that weren't resulting in INTs earlier in the season now are, and it's really biting the team in the ***, and they've now lost 3 in a row. YET PFFs Purdy grade has likely stayed about the same... But my point is you can have 2 INTs that **** the team, yet have 30 other passes that are all good decisions and passes. For PFFs grading what is the difference whether those 2 INT were caught by the defender or dropped? Doesn't matter - it's a bad pass/decision either way. But to the team and fans it makes all the difference in the world. Those 2 INTs being the difference in Winning and losing shifts our entire judgment of the player. Yet the actual throw is the same... And at the end of the day those 2 INTs could just be 5% of the attempts on the day...