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Coaching Final UM Fourth Down Play Fourth Quarter

JayCane20 said:
Just rewatched it and I'm even more confused/amused at that play.. we lined up in line with Bauman-McCoy-Brockermeyer-Cooper-Cici-Bell from left to right. I initially though the LB was pointing out Toney's alignment but he was pointing out Bauman lined up as the "LT" and expecting him to leak out, which he did and was picked up. He was "eligible" because he was the end player on the LOS.

Toney actually ran into Bell who was aligned as the "TE" on the right side of the formation.

Interesting. I would have/going forward we should try motioning Toney pre-snap across the face of the QB or even orbit motion, fake the handoff to Fletcher going back across the left side, and run Bauman or Lofton up the seam from the "LT" alignment. Motion looks like you're setting up a screen and the "blocker" can leak out.
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Or with the orbit motion it can technically turn into a min old school option pitch play between Fletcher and Toney…
 
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Calinative said:
No it isn’t.
Account ring for the situation with time, down and distance, timeouts, and spread&overunder, it’s a toss up leaned towards go for it. It’s because the win% for failing to convert and kicking a FG is 99% either way. But converting makes it 100% win%. Obviously a little better win prob to kick FG than fail obvious, but the win prob gain from converting is worth the marginal risk

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Ben Baldwin is a dufus. I’ve talked to multiple former coaches that says different. What’s Mr Baldwin’s take on kneeling when there’s no chance at losing unless you don’t kneel ? Fact is Mario mishandled the situation hence why it looked like a jumbled up mess right up to the snap . Can you defend that and still snapping the ball ?Does analytic’s take that into account? Also the offense went into a shell then he decided to crank the engine back up after things got interesting. Analytics doesn’t take that into account either. Once again I’d much rather be up 12 not risking a fourth down when a team had crazy momentum versus 9 and a game possibly coming down to a fg to win versus a TD.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Imagine this board had Mario kicked a FG to make a 2 score game…wait for it…a 2 score game, and it got blocked. DMoney would own an island by now.
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Well he was far more riskier against ND. Running the clock down playing super conservative putting the game on a kicker who was 4-11 from almost 50 yards. Sometimes the gods just smile down on you and don’t allow you to ***** things up. After the Oregon then miami kneeling issues he’s earned some leniency with the gods. But looking at us face he was getting that Butch Davis freckles in the sun look during that possession .
 
I thought it was an act trying to clown FSU personally

Like the old fake spike TD play

FSU tried to do something similar to us earlier in the game I think and it’s where Castellanos threw the pick

If Toney doesn’t get bumped off the line it’s probably a touchdown and Mario would have been grinning ear to ear disrespecting Norvell again

We just missed it
 
Cribby said:
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Ben Baldwin is a dufus. I’ve talked to multiple former coaches that says different. What’s Mr Baldwin’s take on kneeling when there’s no chance at losing unless you don’t kneel ? Fact is Mario mishandled the situation hence why it looked like a jumbled up mess right up to the snap . Can you defend that and still snapping the ball ?Does analytic’s take that into account? Also the offense went into a shell then he decided to crank the engine back up after things got interesting. Analytics doesn’t take that into account either. Once again I’d much rather be up 12 not risking a fourth down when a team had crazy momentum versus 9 and a game possibly coming down to a fg to win versus a TD.
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…ah gotcha so the more detailed and data driven analytical decision formula is worse than the one that takes absolutely zero into account from a drives and timeouts remaining because it doesn’t account for the fact that a coach previously handed the ball off instead of taking a knee? lol.

The decision to go for it and what play they are confident in running to convert are entirely separate things. Obviously if they don’t have any higher confidence plays you’d lean towards not going for it.

Also imagine thinking because other coaches think something is wrong regarding 4th down decision making that appeal to authority makes it more correct… when most coaches are the biggest conservative pussies that don’t like math of all time when it comes to decision making lol. You’d think as an eagle fan you’d feel different about trusting that erring on the side of aggressiveness leads to high win probability more often.

Just notice how more and more the trend across crb&nfl is leaning MORE into the data analytic nerds than away from them… and in college you absolutely don’t have close to the reliability of kickers (or even punters) as you do the nfl… making it much more obvious that leaning towards aggressive decisions is better
 
Cribby said:
Well he was far more riskier against ND. Running the clock down playing super conservative putting the game on a kicker who was 4-11 from almost 50 yards. Sometimes the gods just smile down on you and don’t allow you to ***** things up. After the Oregon then miami kneeling issues he’s earned some leniency with the gods. But looking at us face he was getting that Butch Davis freckles in the sun look during that possession .
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For sure, I told you earlier I hated how we played the 4th quarter against ND. This was a different game. This was the right call. If you have one play to end the game, I’m good with taking it.

I was at the ND game and I was at the fsu game. ND I was infinitely more nervous/infuriated/cursing his name. I thought the decisions were wrong. At Doak, I thought they were right. We just didn’t execute the play. But real time; as it was happening, none of us thought kicking the field goal was the right move. It’s not worth the risk imo.
 
rsa coral gables said:
no, mario wanted to end the game and in retrospect that was probably the safest option. too many things can happen with a FG (stand by for that topic). the long snapper is snapping the ball on the ground to the holder. see this porst.

rsa coral gables

X's and O's Post in thread 'Extra Point Operation'

so we had two MORE fumbled snaps on two extra points versus FSU. @JHallCanes is this a trend? what the f@ck is going on. this will cost us a game down the road. WHY IS NO ONE ASKING THESE QUESTIONS? I WANT TO HIRE THE LSU REPORTERS.

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Have to get the snap fixed on extra points. The holder has done a good job to this point with the weak snaps. We dont need to be chasing points because of a miss.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
For sure, I told you earlier I hated how we played the 4th quarter against ND. This was a different game. This was the right call. If you have one play to end the game, I’m good with taking it.

I was at the ND game and I was at the fsu game. ND I was infinitely more nervous/infuriated/cursing his name. I thought the decisions were wrong. At Doak, I thought they were right. We just didn’t execute the play. But real time; as it was happening, none of us thought kicking the field goal was the right move. It’s not worth the risk imo.
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I swear to you on my beloved mother I was saying kick the fg. For multiple reasons including 31-19 looks better , the reasons I mentioned earlier and most importantly I predicted 31-20 which I didn’t remember until @JHallCanes texted me
 
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Cribby said:
I swear to you on my beloved mother I was saying kick the fg. For multiple reasons including 31-19 looks better , the reasons I mentioned earlier and most importantly I predicted 31-20 which I didn’t remember until @JHallCanes texted me
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I hear you. 31-19 definitely looks better. And I don’t think it’s a horrendous decision if he does kick it. You’re over 99% to win either way.

If you go and get it, it’s over
If you go and miss, you’re 99%+
If you kick and make or miss, you’re 99%+

Literally the only thing you can do in that situation to give yourself a less than 99.something% chance to win is have a FG blocked. Or have a turnover on the 4th down obviously but I trust Beck and Dawson to not let that happen. 31-19 woulda been cool though.
 
Toney would have had 4 TDs if they would have converted this and the penalty didnt happen. ****!

Need to pay to keep elite talents home. Imagine if we didn’t keep Toney. Watching him kill it for another program and giving them more to sell to our local recruits for the next few years. Now imagine if we would have kept Jeremiah Smith and Toney…..
 
JHallCanes said:
I thought it was an act trying to clown FSU personally

Like the old fake spike TD play

FSU tried to do something similar to us earlier in the game I think and it’s where Castellanos threw the pick

If Toney doesn’t get bumped off the line it’s probably a touchdown and Mario would have been grinning ear to ear disrespecting Norvell again

We just missed it
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#Execution
 
JayCane20 said:
Just rewatched it and I'm even more confused/amused at that play.. we lined up in line with Bauman-McCoy-Brockermeyer-Cooper-Cici-Bell from left to right. I initially though the LB was pointing out Toney's alignment but he was pointing out Bauman lined up as the "LT" and expecting him to leak out, which he did and was picked up. He was "eligible" because he was the end player on the LOS.
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Think this may be why Dawson told Coach not to call the TO. FSU didn't realize Bauman was eligible till there were 3-4 seconds on the play clock, after Dawson waved off the TO. We were either going to have Bauman wide open at the sticks or the throw to Toney in the flat. #31 took Bauman across and #28 who was supposed to be in Toney's flat ended up on the other side of the field outside the far hash, cause he followed Fletcher. I don't think he ever saw Toney come across.
 
JayCane20 said:
It was a great play design that I wish we didn't show. Could have used it another time.

Wish we would have just kicked the FG to go up 12, forcing them to score 2 TDs with 0 timeouts and 1:12 on the clock to win, which would have been almost impossible... instead of putting them in position to kick a FG with 25 to go like they did and then be able to go for the onside kick.

No idea why we didn't line up in a normal alignment, just try to get them to jump on a hard count, call the timeout, go back out there and execute it in rhythm and it works like a charm.
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It looked to me like nearly everyone was just going through the motions at that point (not Toney). OL almost never gets pushed back, but on that particular 4th down play I don’t think the focus and intensity was quite there. I didn’t have a lot of confidence the FG team would be locked in and set the edge , and it would be all too easy for a FSU player to block the kick or worse.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Imagine this board had Mario kicked a FG to make a 2 score game…wait for it…a 2 score game, and it got blocked. DMoney would own an island by now.
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Imagine if he went for it, there was confusion on the sideline, the clock running down, the play got messed up and it didn't work.
 
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