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Expectations for this season?

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SinisterCane said:
We should be able to give duke a competitive game
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PalyCane said:
Since our coordinators were hired I've been thinking we're likely a 7-5 team, with 6-6 more likely than 8-4.

I note a lot of posters predicting Dawson will bring meaningful improvement to the offense. I don't understand this at all.



P5 experience:

WVU: His 2012-2014 tenure as OC at WVU was in name only. It is widely known it was Holgorsen's offense and Holgorsen was the play caller. In fact Dawson jumped from WVU to Kentucky to run his own offense and call plays.

Kentucky: Dawson's chance to run his own offense at Kentucky in 2015 ended up with the 95th ranked scoring offense and a pink slip after just one season.

"The former West Virginia offensive coordinator ends his tenure at UK after just one season. Dawson, who did not call plays at West Virginia, was hired on Dec. 19, 2014 almost three weeks after former UK offensive coordinator Neal Brown left Lexington for the Troy head-coaching job. " https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...17/report-shannon-dawson-out-uk-oc/77480196/#
Conclusion: His P5 experience was a washout.

G5 experience:

Southern Miss:
-2016 as OC 41st ranked scoring offense
-2017 as OC 58th ranked scoring offense
-2018 as OC 89th ranked scoring offense

Obviously with this track record no one was going to hire him as an OC at his next job.

Houston:
-2019 TE coach
-2020 QB coach
-2021 as OC in name (but with Holgorsen running the offense and calling plays) 15th ranked scoring offense
-2022 as OC in name (but with Holgorsen running the offense and calling plays) 16th ranked scoring offense

Conclusion: My prediction is that Dawson will be another failed OC for Mario and will be let go after this season. And our record this season will be weighed down from ever having hired him.

There is nothing in his resume to suggest he should have been hired as OC here. It's a complete roll of the dice, against bad odds.
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I understand your concern and you present mostly solid facts. I will state a few things though to the contrary and why I expect this team's offense to rock.

At Miami he gets a really good QB off the bat. When he took the Kentucky job, he did not have that. KY had no QB talent that year, which is part of the reason one year of OC did not go well. You also assume he did not call plays at Houston. I understand that he did call plays. Yes, he was under Holgersen, but so what. He runs a Holgersen based system.

You also need to take into account major system and position upgrades at Miami. For the System, Gattis ran a slow check with me, no audible, center only calls projection, core tight set pro system. Dawson runs a more spread, QB audible, QB/Center call projection with varying tempo offense.

Gattis's offense requires A+ talent on the O-line and RB room and A+ smarts at all positions including WR. We had little of that. OL had no idea now to block, RBs blocking wrong guys, hitting wrong holes and WR's running wrong routes and depths. Part of that was OC/Positional coaches not getting job done. On top of that, QB could not change the play. Only time that happened was when Gattis would change it after a check with me. It is also known that other teams were stealing play signs and knew what Miami was running.

Dawson is the opposite of all of that. It does not require A+ talent and A+ smarts. Spreading teams out and simplifying calls helps that. His system also limits signals that can be stolen and uses a quick huddle at times. Other teams won't know what we are running. Even if you are right and he did not call plays at Houston, who cares. Our QB can change the play. Exhibit 1, TVD to George on the fade in the spring game for a TD.

As for position upgrades. Holly cow, our OL is night and day better on paper than last year, our WR room has less or no cancer, is healthy, more experienced and now deeper and faster than last year. Our RB room is also more healthy and way deeper than last year. We have 3 new players in that room all of whom are expected to be potential studs. On top of that the returning starter has experience.

Buy-in in the locker room is supposedly night and day from this time last year. Most if not all players on this team are not just going through the motions. This existed last year. The roster has been mostly flipped in the last 2 years.

Last year at this time I was hoping things would work out. This year I expect it will.
 
PalyCane said:
Since our coordinators were hired I've been thinking we're likely a 7-5 team, with 6-6 more likely than 8-4.

I note a lot of posters predicting Dawson will bring meaningful improvement to the offense. I don't understand this at all.



P5 experience:

WVU: His 2012-2014 tenure as OC at WVU was in name only. It is widely known it was Holgorsen's offense and Holgorsen was the play caller. In fact Dawson jumped from WVU to Kentucky to run his own offense and call plays.

Kentucky: Dawson's chance to run his own offense at Kentucky in 2015 ended up with the 95th ranked scoring offense and a pink slip after just one season.

"The former West Virginia offensive coordinator ends his tenure at UK after just one season. Dawson, who did not call plays at West Virginia, was hired on Dec. 19, 2014 almost three weeks after former UK offensive coordinator Neal Brown left Lexington for the Troy head-coaching job. " https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...17/report-shannon-dawson-out-uk-oc/77480196/#
Conclusion: His P5 experience was a washout.

G5 experience:

Southern Miss:
-2016 as OC 41st ranked scoring offense
-2017 as OC 58th ranked scoring offense
-2018 as OC 89th ranked scoring offense

Obviously with this track record no one was going to hire him as an OC at his next job.

Houston:
-2019 TE coach
-2020 QB coach
-2021 as OC in name (but with Holgorsen running the offense and calling plays) 15th ranked scoring offense
-2022 as OC in name (but with Holgorsen running the offense and calling plays) 16th ranked scoring offense

Conclusion: My prediction is that Dawson will be another failed OC for Mario and will be let go after this season. And our record this season will be weighed down from ever having hired him.

There is nothing in his resume to suggest he should have been hired as OC here. It's a complete roll of the dice, against bad odds.
Click to expand...
www.gallerysports.com

Shannon Dawson leaves Houston Cougars football program - Gallery Sports

Shannon Dawson is no longer a part of the Houston Cougars football program, a source confirmed to Gallery Sports on Tuesday afternoon.
www.gallerysports.com www.gallerysports.com

I’m confused what “Dawson controlled Houston’s playcalling for the 2022 season” means. Can you explain please?
 
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Looks like many on here are predicting a 6-6 season. So all the hires and portal additions will net us only one game in the win column?
 
ADELPHI said:
Looks like many on here are predicting a 6-6 season. So all the hires and portal additions will net us only one game in the win column?
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Harder Schedule and possible injuries could result in 5-6 wins on top of past results. Having said that I would take the over with 7.5 wins.

Miami, BCook, Temple, GT, VA all wins. That's 5. There will not be a repeat of MTSU this year.

So we only need 3 from the other 7, A&M, BC, NC State, LVille, UNC, Clemson, and FshatU.

A&M, well we should be better but they maybe as well. 50/50
BC should be a win but we will be dealing with possible cold temps. 65/35
NC State is away and will remember 2021 and 2020 losses. However, I don't buy their team this year. Tons of changes there. 55/45
LVille, they should be able to score but Brohm lost lots of games at Purdue including to Cuse last year. 60/40
UNC, I expected their offense to take a step back and their defense to still not be great. 50/50
Clemson, this one is interesting. Worried about new Freshman D-lineman they got but not a fan rain ball klubnik 35/65
FSU, they are talented this year but we are Miami and players should be up for the game. Can Guidry slow down their offense? 30/70.
 
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Manfred_Cane said:
www.gallerysports.com

Shannon Dawson leaves Houston Cougars football program - Gallery Sports

Shannon Dawson is no longer a part of the Houston Cougars football program, a source confirmed to Gallery Sports on Tuesday afternoon.
www.gallerysports.com www.gallerysports.com

I’m confused what “Dawson controlled Houston’s playcalling for the 2022 season” means. Can you explain please?
Click to expand...

I doubt it's true in spite of the reporter's claim. Holgorsen has always been known as an offensive guy who controls his offenses/calls his own plays. I find it improbable that Holgorsen has given up those responsibilities all of a sudden at Houston, especially to Dawson who failed miserably while running his own offense and calling plays for all of the only four years he was actually a stand-alone OC.

I have always held to this process/rule over my 40 yr professional career: Hire people who have a demonstrated track record of direct and accountable success. Avoid people who lack that track record and instead depend on explanations why the lack of success purportedly wasn't their fault.

Dawson simply has no track record of directly accountable stand-alone success. His only stand-alone track record as an OC is one of complete failure.

That said, hope you're right and I'm back here eating crow in six months...
 
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09/01/23 (W) 45-13 Miami (Ohio)
09/09/23 (W) 17-16 Texas A&M
09/14/23 (W) 52-10 Bethune Cookman
09/23/23 (W) 48-20 Temple
10/07/23 (W) 28-21 Georgia Tech
10/14/23 (L) 21-35 North Carolina
10/21/23 (L) 17-33 Clemson
10/28/23 (W) 24-21 Virginia
11/04/23 (W) 35-25 NC State
11/11/23 (L) 28-45 Florida State
11/18/23 (W) 28-27 Louisville
11/24/23 (W) 41-17 Boston College
 
GojiraCane said:
09/01/23 (W) 45-13 Miami (Ohio)
09/09/23 (W) 17-16 Texas A&M
09/14/23 (W) 52-10 Bethune Cookman
09/23/23 (W) 48-20 Temple
10/07/23 (W) 28-21 Georgia Tech
10/14/23 (L) 21-35 North Carolina
10/21/23 (L) 17-33 Clemson
10/28/23 (W) 24-21 Virginia
11/04/23 (W) 35-25 NC State
11/11/23 (L) 28-45 Florida State
11/18/23 (W) 28-27 Louisville
11/24/23 (W) 41-17 Boston College
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This would definitely be a step in the right direction
 
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