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Expectations for this season?

7-5 with improvement as the year goes on.

Important Bowl Game victory to gain momentum to an 11-2 2024 season
 
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It's sad but I would be happy with 7 wins and any bowl victory. Last years Miami team was the worse I've ever seen. 7 dubs and Gasparilla bowl Champs is fine by me.
 
Perhaps I am in the minority-and despite "you are what your record says you are"-IMO, this was not a 5 win team last season. With just average or mediocre offensive coaching, I think it would have or should have been a 7 win team. So, ideally, for me, this team should win 8 or 9 for me to feel confident about the direction of the program. 7 wins would be disappointing although I guess it is an improvement (but from what, really?)

Anyways, I'm lumping the games into tiers:

Guaranteed wins (Miami (OH), BCC)
Should win (@ Temple, GT, UVA, Louisville, @ BC, @ NCST)
Tough (TX A&M, @ NC, Clemson, @ FSU)

I don't know much of our competitor's rosters and what each has at QB with these turning rosters (Cunningham is gone, as is Leary, and I'm not sure who's replacing them) but if we get the 2 guaranteed wins and go 5-1 with the "should win" even if we just get 1 from the "tough" that's an 8 win team.

And in my "tough" group, none of those teams are invincible. TX A&M offense is meh. (Do they have a QB this year?) Drake Maye is sensational but the rest of that UNC roster is questionable. And they lost 5 games last season. Clemson is still more talented across the board but what is their offense and QB situation this year? I guess @ FSU is likely the toughest test but provided we have competent coaching and our 1st string QB, that game should be far more competitive than last year. Travis is a phenomenal college QB, but outside of his singular spectacular play (and Verse), I can't fathom that roster being markedly ahead of ours.
 
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AlexCane said:
Perhaps I am in the minority-and despite "you are what your record says you are"-IMO, this was not have a 5 win team last season. With just average or mediocre offensive coaching, I think it would have or should have been a 7 win team. So, ideally, for me, this team should win 8 or 9 for me to feel confident about the direction of the program. 7 wins would be disappointing although I guess it is an improvement (but from what, really?)

Anyways, I'm lumping the games into tiers:

Guaranteed wins (Miami (OH), BCC)
Should win (@ Temple, GT, UVA, Louisville, @ BC, @ NCST)
Tough (TX A&M, @ NC, Clemson, @ FSU)

I don't know much of our competitor's rosters and what each has at QB with these turning rosters (Cunningham is gone, as is Leary, and I'm not sure who's replacing them) but if we get the 2 guaranteed wins and go 5-1 with the "should win" even if we just get 1 from the "tough" that's an 8 win team.

And in my "tough" group, none of those teams are invincible. TX A&M offense is meh. (Do they have a QB this year?) Drake Maye is sensational but the rest of that UNC roster is questionable. And they lost 5 games last season. Clemson is still more talented across the board but what is their offense and QB situation this year? I guess @ FSU is likely the toughest test but provided we have competent coaching and our 1st string QB, that game should be far more competitive than last year. Travis is a phenomenal college QB, but outside of his singular spectacular play (and Verse), I can't fathom that roster being markedly ahead of ours.
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this man drank the Kool-Aid.

this man's opinion is reasonable.


/both can be true
 
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It's hard to be very optimistic when looking at how bad we did last year. We gave up 40+ 5 times including to Mtsu and Duke. Our leading passer had 53 or less yards of passing twice. We scored 24 points or less 8 times. We got blown out in 5 of our 7 losses, including our 4 last losses.

Mario just did a terrible job last..far worse than anybody could have imagined.


Screenshot_20230517-070440.png
 
HurricaneKush said:
10-2 talent with a Mario tax puts us at 8-4
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There may be a bit of truth there.

Mario has to let the players play. Turn the dogs loose, and not choke them down with his perceived system.

And we're going to need on occasion - to take a page from Riverboat Gamblers. Playing the percentages has merit - but playing the percentages is intuitive - for both sides. Your opponent knows the percentages as well - and can more accurately anticipate what you'll do next.

To be counterintuitive - on occasions - throws off your opponent. I hope our Coordinators are frequently enough - counterintuitive.

And if we are truly a team - then we can play like fingers on a hand - not much thinking to it - just action and reaction.
 
Lots of level-setting from scorned fans. Mario set the bar very low. If our coordinators are legit, this should be a 9-win team that discovers a new identity by mid-season. If they finish on the upswing, they should beat a top 25 team in a bowl game.
 
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Cribby said:
I don’t think people realize how off the rails things went last year. From issues with coaches , horrible scheme , a crazy amount of injuries and a toxic locker room. It was the perfect storm mixed with bad luck. It would take crazy effort to be that bad again.
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What does a "toxic locker room" look like?
 
3 guaranteed losses (Clemson, A&M and FSU) and one inexplicable Mario special. So, 8 wins in 2023. Sets us up for a pretty good run in 2024 and 2025.
 
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Ghandi said:
Yes. I agree that 8-weeks of spring football is not enough for us to make a determination on how TVD fits into this scheme, and the team in general.

That being said, TVD still has the same limitations he’s always had reading the field and making fast decisions. The scheme is going to mask some of it, but not enough to get you 3-4 more wins in a season
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You make a general statement how TVD is limited in reading the field and making fast decisions. Provide examples, which I expect you to find some as you could with every QB plus the fact I expect you to say some are when in fact they are designed that way or pre-snap reads. Then we can discuss this the right way by debating what happened on a given play and what he might have done instead. Hard to do that when you speak in generalities. But before you do, I will first sum up his ACC stats and then go through each of his games.

Career ACC Stats (Excluding the 3 ACC games in 2022 when we was injured)
~8 Games in 2021 + 2 Injury Free games in 2022: 10 Games, 63.4% for 3,508 yards, 351 ypg, 27 TDs, 7 ints. Annualized to 12 games plus a bowl game is 4,560 yards, 35 TDs.

~If you exclude his first 2 career starts (VA and UNC in '21). So last 6 in '21 and 2 injury free games in '22: 8 Games, 66.9% for 3,041 yards, 380 YPG, 25 TDs, 4 int. Annualized to full season plus a bowl game is 4,942 yards and 41 TDs.

2021 by Game:
~CCSU: 10-11, 91% for 270 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int. 1 incomplete was a drop on a post that would have been a TD. Inferior team but he was perfect

~VA Home: 15-29, 52% for 203 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int. 1st ACC start, Lashlee held him back in first half. Brought team back to win game but kick hit upright.

~UNC Away: 20-45, 44% for 264 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int. 1st away start, bad first half. Played great in 2nd half and had team in position to win if not for a missed block by the center that lead to a tipped pass and int.

~NCST Home: 25-33, 76% for 325 yards, 4 TD, 0 Int.
~Pitt Away: 32-42, 76% for 426 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int.
~GT Home: 22-34, 65% for 389 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int.

~FSU Away: 25-47, 53% for 316 yards, 4 TD, 2 Int. 1st game in front of a massive hostel crowd. Difficult start but brought team back to win but Diaz joked.

~VT Home: 19-33, 58% for 357 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int. Rain game
~Duke Away: 34-49, 69% for 381 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int.

2022 (Gattis Ball) by Game:
~B. Cookman Home: 13-16, 81% for 193 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int. Gattis did not throw ball in redzone.

~S. Miss Home: 20-29, 69% for 261 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. Gattis did not throw ball in redzone.

~TAMU Away: 21-41, 51% 217 yards 0 TD, 0 Int. 7 drops, 4-5 thrown away, under constant pressure. Gattis play calling inside redzone was pathetic and clear that Gattis was not able to teach receivers where they were supposed to be. Missed on a few throws he should not have.

~MTSU Home: 16-32, 50% 138 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int. Have fun picking apart this game. He did not play well but the entire team sucked. MTSU also created the blue print to attacked with constant hidden pressure given Gattis' constant tight sets and inability of OL to pick it up. Just note that the first pick was a pre-snap read one step quick 5 yard out to the slot. It was picked by CB covering WR (not TE in slot) who Gattis had run the same route 1 yard apart. Pathetic formation/route combo with no ability to change play. 2nd pick would have gone for 25 yards but a heck of play by DE to tip the pass.

~ UNC Home: 42-57, 74% for 496 yards, 3 TD, 1 int (tipped pass to end game). ACC QB of the week (not Maye)
~ VT Away: 29-46, 63% for 351 yards 2 TD, 0 int.
~Duke Home (just over 1 quarter before injury): 11-16 69% for 81 yards 1 TD, 0 Int.

Folks really should step back and think about each game, the coaching, the situation, the other players etc when assessing TVDs play. If Zion is healthy our OL is this (4th Yr Starter, 3rd Yr Starter with 2 at Bama, 5th Yr Center, 3rd year/2nd year starter, 1 rated Tackle in '23 class who dances with fire). Compare that to last year (OMG). Now look at the WRs. WE LOST NO ONE ANY GOOD. X is healthy and is a beast, Young transformed his body and now has experience, George not suspended and had a great spring, Horton not hurt, then add in great speed and depth with Smith and 2 frosh. Oh and now we got a guy who can take the top of the D and potential star in shifty Kirk. Plus the TE's

TVD stayed at Miami to break single season QB records.
 
jazperbc said:
You make a general statement how TVD is limited in reading the field and making fast decisions. Provide examples, which I expect you to find some as you could with every QB plus the fact I expect you to say some are when in fact they are designed that way or pre-snap reads. Then we can discuss this the right way by debating what happened on a given play and what he might have done instead. Hard to do that when you speak in generalities. But before you do, I will first sum up his ACC stats and then go through each of his games.

Career ACC Stats (Excluding the 3 ACC games in 2022 when we was injured)
~8 Games in 2021 + 2 Injury Free games in 2022: 10 Games, 63.4% for 3,508 yards, 351 ypg, 27 TDs, 7 ints. Annualized to 12 games plus a bowl game is 4,560 yards, 35 TDs.

~If you exclude his first 2 career starts (VA and UNC in '21). So last 6 in '21 and 2 injury free games in '22: 8 Games, 66.9% for 3,041 yards, 380 YPG, 25 TDs, 4 int. Annualized to full season plus a bowl game is 4,942 yards and 41 TDs.

2021 by Game:
~CCSU: 10-11, 91% for 270 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int. 1 incomplete was a drop on a post that would have been a TD. Inferior team but he was perfect

~VA Home: 15-29, 52% for 203 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int. 1st ACC start, Lashlee held him back in first half. Brought team back to win game but kick hit upright.

~UNC Away: 20-45, 44% for 264 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int. 1st away start, bad first half. Played great in 2nd half and had team in position to win if not for a missed block by the center that lead to a tipped pass and int.

~NCST Home: 25-33, 76% for 325 yards, 4 TD, 0 Int.
~Pitt Away: 32-42, 76% for 426 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int.
~GT Home: 22-34, 65% for 389 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int.

~FSU Away: 25-47, 53% for 316 yards, 4 TD, 2 Int. 1st game in front of a massive hostel crowd. Difficult start but brought team back to win but Diaz joked.

~VT Home: 19-33, 58% for 357 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int. Rain game
~Duke Away: 34-49, 69% for 381 yards, 3 TD, 0 Int.

2022 (Gattis Ball) by Game:
~B. Cookman Home: 13-16, 81% for 193 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int. Gattis did not throw ball in redzone.

~S. Miss Home: 20-29, 69% for 261 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. Gattis did not throw ball in redzone.

~TAMU Away: 21-41, 51% 217 yards 0 TD, 0 Int. 7 drops, 4-5 thrown away, under constant pressure. Gattis play calling inside redzone was pathetic and clear that Gattis was not able to teach receivers where they were supposed to be. Missed on a few throws he should not have.

~MTSU Home: 16-32, 50% 138 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int. Have fun picking apart this game. He did not play well but the entire team sucked. MTSU also created the blue print to attacked with constant hidden pressure given Gattis' constant tight sets and inability of OL to pick it up. Just note that the first pick was a pre-snap read one step quick 5 yard out to the slot. It was picked by CB covering WR (not TE in slot) who Gattis had run the same route 1 yard apart. Pathetic formation/route combo with no ability to change play. 2nd pick would have gone for 25 yards but a heck of play by DE to tip the pass.

~ UNC Home: 42-57, 74% for 496 yards, 3 TD, 1 int (tipped pass to end game). ACC QB of the week (not Maye)
~ VT Away: 29-46, 63% for 351 yards 2 TD, 0 int.
~Duke Home (just over 1 quarter before injury): 11-16 69% for 81 yards 1 TD, 0 Int.

Folks really should step back and think about each game, the coaching, the situation, the other players etc when assessing TVDs play. If Zion is healthy our OL is this (4th Yr Starter, 3rd Yr Starter with 2 at Bama, 5th Yr Center, 3rd year/2nd year starter, 1 rated Tackle in '23 class who dances with fire). Compare that to last year (OMG). Now look at the WRs. WE LOST NO ONE ANY GOOD. X is healthy and is a beast, Young transformed his body and now has experience, George not suspended and had a great spring, Horton not hurt, then add in great speed and depth with Smith and 2 frosh. Oh and now we got a guy who can take the top of the D and potential star in shifty Kirk. Plus the TE's

TVD stayed at Miami to break single season QB records.
Click to expand...

What does the completion percentage have to do with his inability to read progressions on the field quickly?

In 2023, completion percentage correlates more to play calling and depth of target (ease of throw) than a QB’s ability to read and trigger on the right read.
 
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Ghandi said:
What does the completion percentage have to do with his inability to read progressions on the field quickly?

In 2023, completion percentage correlates more to play calling and depth of target (ease of throw) than a QB’s ability to read and trigger on the right read.
Click to expand...

Agree TVD has limitations. But I think you have to be somewhat impressed with those stats and optimistic about TVD, given all the obstacles thrown his way. I expect a high octane offense in 2023. My worry is the defense, especially against the run and general LB play.
 
Ghandi said:
What does the completion percentage have to do with his inability to read progressions on the field quickly?

In 2023, completion percentage correlates more to play calling and depth of target (ease of throw) than a QB’s ability to read and trigger on the right read.
Click to expand...
I provide facts you provide nothing but opinion and those facts don't support your opinion. If he was not able to read progressions he would not post numbers like that. Res ipsa loquitur
 
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