Do stars matter? A look at the top teams & what it means for UM

DTP

Section 102
Joined
Dec 30, 2015
Messages
5,067
You’re basing that off one article that came out about Rivals almost 10 years ago.

There is no anti-canes bias, and players don’t get bumps because they commit to schools with big fan bases.

Anybody who is reasonably smart and who has taken one semester of statistics can easily verify for themselves that star rankings do correlate with success.

Stars absolutely matter. Your feelings don’t.
You could not be more wrong.

UM QB commit Tyler Van Dyke literally got bumped from a 3 star rated player to a 4 star rated player just by receiving an offer from Miami.

Player ratings go randomly up and down, even during the off-season. It is done to generate clicks and revenue. If they didn't constantly change player ratings, there'd be no reason for people to pay for a subscription to the recruiting web sites.

Not one time have I ever made a statement regarding "anti-canes bias". You're literally just making up stuff.

Not one time have I ever said that stars don't "correlate with success". As a matter of fact I said exactly that in my earlier post. It's not a 100% direct correlation though because there's plenty of teams who are full of highly rated players that frankly aren't very good.

I'm sorry you got duped into paying for a subscription for a recruiting website and you're stupid enough to believe that the people who work for that website are more qualified than FBS coaching staffs at evaluating players but unfortunately for you, that's the truth. Once again, the coaches know who can play and who can't. They don't need to see an arbitrary rating next to their name to know whether or not that player is good.

If determining the best team was as simple as seeing who had the highest rated classes, then Alabama would not have gotten blown out by Clemson in the championship game last season.
 

No_Fly_Zone

Sophomore
Joined
Dec 28, 2016
Messages
2,201
In the last 4 NFL drafts an avg of 80 players were drafted in the top 4 rounds that were 3 stars or less. Give me 20 of those players every year and im happy.
I hear you, but the odds are pretty rough. In 2013, Rivals ranked 1,328 3* kids and 1,859 2* kids. Getting even one of the approximately 80 out of 3,187 is hard (2.5% chance your 3* or 2* gets drafted, not even accounting for the unranked kids).

Hopefully, our coaching staff is better than 2.5%. But that would mean they need to be above average talent evaluators and/or talent developers.
 

90scane

Sophomore
Joined
Dec 26, 2015
Messages
973
Who the F cares about rankings if we are 7-6? 2008 was the #1 class and we all know how that turned out. Land talented kids, coach them up, win games... hopefully, landed even more talented kids the next cycle, coach them up, win more games...
 

Calvin

Junior
Joined
Jun 21, 2018
Messages
1,770
You sure don’t seem to understand what I have written.

I have been really clear. I don’t care about stars. Get the kids we need and quit failing and quit with excuses. If the kids we need are 4-5 star kids ... get them. If you can fill our roster with 3* kids who turn out to be studs who turn into future all pros, good, do it. But do it. Because the kids we historically got, stars aside, they were the best guys. That’s the standard. Guys who can dominate, not just hang on. Doesn’t matter what their stars are. What matters is that they are that good. You seem fixated more on stars than I am. I want results.
I dont think you understood what you posted, but if you not a star whore than to you sir:
 

Rellyrell

All-ACC
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
11,305
In the last 4 NFL drafts an avg of 80 players were drafted in the top 4 rounds that were 3 stars or less. Give me 20 of those players every year and im happy.
That’s b/c it’s a bigger pool of 3star to non-rated players than blue chips. That’s y they r called blue chips. Lol

Furthermore, those 80 players r hella spread out from school to school. Some r from big time programs where they have a roster full of blue chips, and/or have outstanding player development, that are pushing them to greater heights (see our old Green Tree practices), while others are scattered among G5, D1AA, HSBC’s, etc.

So either we need to have a roster full of monsters that helps bring out the inner monsters of these underrated players, our staff becomes The New JJ/Butch Davis staff, or our evals gotta be pin point accurate.

That NFL draft argument is so vague and lacks extreme context.
 

Rellyrell

All-ACC
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
11,305
Who the F cares about rankings if we are 7-6? 2008 was the #1 class and we all know how that turned out. Land talented kids, coach them up, win games... hopefully, landed even more talented kids the next cycle, coach them up, win more games...
I’m glad u brought up the 08 class. First off, let’s talk about how the 08 class was supplemented:

In 07 we had a small class of 18; that class ranked 13th. In 09, we had a class that ranked 16th. In 10, we had a class that ranked 14th.

Now let’s add context, in particular to the 08 & 10, I’ll start w 2010.

That class was ranked 14th b/c of the size of it...it was 28 in that class (not all made it in or played a down here.)
Out of the 28 recruits, only 7 were considered 4+ stars. Out of those 7, only 5 were considered blue chips while the other two were considered fringe 3/4 stars.
So in essence, that class brought us 22 players who were not considered elite. Out of those 22 players, only 6 had an impact w us (Hurns, Morris, Feliciano, Walford, McDermott, Hagens). Their impacts weren’t felt until 2012/2013 AFTER the 08 class left.

Let’s look at 08:
We signed a whopping 32 kids that year! To my knowledge, it’s the biggest class we’ve inked, but I could be wrong.
Out of those 32 kids, 16 were considered 4+ stars (fantastic), out of those 16, 14 were considered blue chips, w/ the other 2 considered fringe 3/4 stars (one being J Harris). So half of the class were considered elite, while the other half was considered average.
Here’s the problem; that class collapsed. The headliner, Arthur Brown, bounced. The other half of the class barely or never played a down here.

That 08 class never had a chance. Not only was it top heavy, the classes that were brought in surrounding it didn’t help supplement it, either. Plus, we know about the piss poor player development that manifested itself after 05.

Go look from 06 to about 11, and see how lopsided our classes were, and ask where would the mentorship come from, both in the locker room & from the coaches?

But here’s the real story: That 08 class was # 1 on paper. Had we signed a class of 25, we would’ve dropped. Our avg score was 89 (which is a fringe 3/4 star ranking). That was more accurate.

Take a look at Bama’s 08 class (#3), which had an avg score of 91.2. That 08 class became their foundation to their dominance. Look at UGA that year (#7) that had an avg of 91, that class went on to win a lot of games.

That year, inside the top 15, we had by far the most 3 star recruits. That 08 class was nothing more than paper recruiting champions! When u peel back the onion layers, between what classes we brought in prior to and after, our avg recruiting score, and the piss poor player development, it’s clear that 08 had no chance in hell, despite what that lofty class ranking it was given.

Also, I think we should be more concerned w the avg score, v. class ranking moving forward.

Sorry for the long response, but I’ve been waiting to ether that 08 class argument for a min.
 

puertorricane

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Jan 14, 2012
Messages
218
I hear you, but the odds are pretty rough. In 2013, Rivals ranked 1,328 3* kids and 1,859 2* kids. Getting even one of the approximately 80 out of 3,187 is hard (2.5% chance your 3* or 2* gets drafted, not even accounting for the unranked kids).

Hopefully, our coaching staff is better than 2.5%. But that would mean they need to be above average talent evaluators and/or talent developers.
Well evaluations matter which is my point not stars by a website.
Coaching, development and each personal player hunger and dedication matter more than class rankings.
Give me 25 Antonio Brown and Khalil Mack and Im happy.
Is the coaches job to evaluate a players talent, character, grades, personality, hunger, determination and how it fits into the program and the system they want to run.
Is the fans job to look at stars from websites and care about class rankings.
 

BeastMode

Junior
Joined
Dec 28, 2012
Messages
3,961
Stars matter to a certain extent but this below proves that’s stars are also kind of BS. FSU new commit jumped 800 spots in 3 months without doing any camps and is now a 4 star haha yea ok.
90046
 

Ethnicsands

All-American
Joined
Nov 2, 2011
Messages
16,592
You could not be more wrong.

UM QB commit Tyler Van Dyke literally got bumped from a 3 star rated player to a 4 star rated player just by receiving an offer from Miami.

Player ratings go randomly up and down, even during the off-season. It is done to generate clicks and revenue. If they didn't constantly change player ratings, there'd be no reason for people to pay for a subscription to the recruiting web sites.

Not one time have I ever made a statement regarding "anti-canes bias". You're literally just making up stuff.

Not one time have I ever said that stars don't "correlate with success". As a matter of fact I said exactly that in my earlier post. It's not a 100% direct correlation though because there's plenty of teams who are full of highly rated players that frankly aren't very good.

I'm sorry you got duped into paying for a subscription for a recruiting website and you're stupid enough to believe that the people who work for that website are more qualified than FBS coaching staffs at evaluating players but unfortunately for you, that's the truth. Once again, the coaches know who can play and who can't. They don't need to see an arbitrary rating next to their name to know whether or not that player is good.

If determining the best team was as simple as seeing who had the highest rated classes, then Alabama would not have gotten blown out by Clemson in the championship game last season.
Could you imagine how good Clemson would be if they had the best QB in years at their helm, along with 5* guys on their DL?
 

Hurricane23

Sophomore
Joined
Sep 19, 2013
Messages
1,355
Before I read, yes stars do matter, but your whole class doesnt have to be 4/5 star recruits. I'd say 60/40 Ratio.
 
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