Diaz vs The Best- Advanced Stats Version

[obcanes]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE

Louisiana Tech's defense is back to sucking since Diaz left. Interdasting

Texas's defense is pretty bad also.
2011 9th
2012 32nd
2013 44th
2014 7th
2015 66th

 

[Miami82]

You are trying to hard now. In that thread he gives examples all the way up to this last year. The IN-state game is a prime example of what he is talking about. The soft zone is almost exactly what Dorito ran here. You can't argue that isn't an area of concern. There is a reason he isn't elite. The test here will be can he learn and grow.

Question: Can you play man under and 2 deep and still blitz the way Diaz likes too?

If you are going to run a creative, aggressive 4-3 1-gap scheme you pretty much have to have some zone blitzing concepts in your tool kit. We knew before film analysis started that Diaz was an aggressive guy who also liked to run a diverse array of concepts. It is utterly unsurprising that someone could look through his history and find stuff they don't like. How many defensive coordinators these days last 5 years at the P5 level without blemishes of some sort?

Or you could man blitz.

OR even better, you use pattern match concepts in your zone blitz, which essentially turns into man after receiver distribution.....but Diaz doesn't teach that, doesn't believe in it, thinks it's too hard to teach, despite Nick Saban's kids playing it every down.

Is that comment hyperbole, or did he really say/write that?

I don't think there is video of him running that. Thats where it is coming from.

 

[Miami82]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE

Louisiana Tech's defense is back to sucking since Diaz left. Interdasting

Texas's defense is pretty bad also.
2011 9th
2012 32nd
2013 44th
2014 7th
2015 66th

I think Diaz was there in 11 and 12 and the 1st 2 games of 13.

 

[DaU83]

Interesting that only smart is in the single digits, how much of that can be attributed to Saban though?

 

[jw410]

Manny Diaz = horrible game planning | Hornfans

Is allow a team to pile up rush yards a part of Spanish Dorito's "advanced metrics"?

I've got no dog in this fight, but I see a trend here. The OP in this and other threads are using objective metrics to analyze Diaz. Stats suggest he is good, but not elite. Fullyericht merely links to fan blogs and forums saying Diaz sucks as his "evidence."

No, check out Lucanes thread. GS goes in depth in that thread. His biggest concern is not enough man to man and running Fire zone.

I'm a Ravens fan and I loved the old Lebeau man fire zone.. Especially those double a gap blitzes and I'm a ravens fan but I give props when do.

 

[407cane]

posted this in another thread but didn't really pertain so trying to keep it in the diaz stats thread...

some more telling stats about diaz this last year that may lead to some optimism and may show he is much better than what people on here will have you believe (although NOT Elite, I completely agree, but still very good)

I think Diaz has done a remarkable job of being agressive and blitzing so often yet not giving up the big play(which is usually what you get with an aggressive blitzing coordinator)

this year at MSU they were the best team in the nation in stopping big plays(20+ yards). Miss St. also ranked top 20 in pass defense efficiency (advanced stats in other thread). This is pretty crazy when you're bringing the heat all the time. This is a pretty crazy stat and shows his teams play disciplined defense. It's usually hit or miss with blitzing defense and defenses like d'onofrios read and react are supposed to be the ones that don't give up big yardage in chunks but Diaz managed to do it consistently while bringing 5 or 6 rushers very often. Also kind of promising since we got Banda too who worked with the Mississippi State secondary this past year

https://twitter.com/SportSourceA/sta...52772959551488 [MENTION=3951]Coach[/MENTION]_MannyDiaz #HailState defense has only given up 20+ yard plays on 3.93% of all plays run against them. This is lowest % of any FBS tm.


https://twitter.com/SportSourceA/sta...01552463040513 [MENTION=3951]Coach[/MENTION]_ShoopPSU's #NittanyLion def has only allowed 17 20+ yd pass plays- lowest in FBS. Next lowest is [MENTION=3951]Coach[/MENTION]_MannyDiaz #HailState def w/18


They were also 12th in TFL this season. So not only is he blitzing heavily, it's working because they are getting the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage and they are stopping over pursuit and miscues that normally come with blitzing heavily and stopping 20+ yard plays consistently. This should improve even more with Coach Kool here as well


he also keeps teams out of the endzone(the most imporant stat). They were 10th in redzone scoring defense at Miss State this year.

https://twitter.com/SportSourceA/sta...29050799902720
The only 3 FBS defenses to have given up less than 10 rush TDs and 5 or less pass TDs are: @umichfootball @HailStateFB & [MENTION=10436]badger[/MENTION]Football

https://twitter.com/MSUBillMartin/status/662515687097769984
Streak lives again. @HailStateFB through 9 games remains only @SEC team to not allow a fourth quarter TD. Outscoring opponents, 62-12.

^struggled in last three games so tifwiw, however still impressive. Includes games against LSU and Texas A&M


also fwiw, all this while losing their best 3 players on defense and 8 starters overall on the unit last year so he was working with an inexperienced unit

again I'm not crazy about the guy and would have preferred others, however the more research I do the more I see how he can be very successful here. More talent, easier division, coach kool. A lot of positives

 

[dookie blaylock]

Interesting that only smart is in the single digits, how much of that can be attributed to Saban though?

i think that smart is a good coordinator, but with the caliber athlete that bama gets, it's hard to be sure. we'll see how he does at georgia.

 

[brcane1]

Posted this in another thread, but thought it belonged here too.

Yes there are a couple good stats for getting an opponent off the field.

There are two components of the FEI defensive efficiency advanced stat that calculates this:

DFD is the percent of opponent drives that result in 1 or more first downs (the opposite of what you are looking for) & DAY is the available yards percentage, or amount of the available field that opponent drive eats through.

Here are his last 5 season ranks in each of those:

YEAR DFD DAY
2010 38 51
2011 16 11
2012 49 69
2014 13 23
2015 63 57
AVERAGE 36 42

Edit: Went ahead and compiled two more that help answer your question, and brace yourself because its the ugliest stat I've seen thus far. Combined the stats above and these show that he is very boom or bust. His best defense do a great job getting off the field on aggregate, but even then the bad drives are.... tough to stomach.

DMe: Methodical Drive Rate, the percentage of opponent drives that last at least 10 plays.
DVa: Value Drive Rate, the percentage of opponent drives that begin at least 50 yards from the end zone and reach the team's 30-yard line.

Here are Diaz's ranks:

YEAR DME DVA
2010 106 56
2011 32 15
2012 107 81
2014 100 33
2015 113 56
AVERAGE 92 48