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Diaz vs The Best- Advanced Stats Version

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Cane01

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Interpret this compilation however you will. This is just to start some discussion. P.S. Formatting sucks.

Here are some advanced defensive stats for Diaz as well as some other highly thought of recent DC's. Probably not elite, but objectively, probably much better than many are giving him credit for. I guess it depends how much stock you put in advanced stats. It's kind of like the baseball argument of RBIs vs wRC, old school vs new school.

Diaz-
FEI. S&P+
MSU 2010. 12 22
Tex. 2011. 9 9
Tex. 2012. 38 32
Tex. 2013. 31 44
LT. 2014. 9 24
MSU 2015. 51 37
Average. 25 28

Aranda-
FEI. S&P+
Haw. 2010. 71 32
Haw. 2011. 105 82
Utah St. 2012. 14 10
Wisc. 2013. 13 10
Wisc. 2014. 33 29
Wisc. 2015. 11 7
Average. 41 28

Brown-
FEI. S&P+
MD. 2010. 20 36
UCONN. 2011. 23 34
UCONN. 2012. 22 38
BC. 2013. 98 80
BC. 2014. 68 36
BC. 2015. 5 3
Average. 39 38

Chavis-
FEI. S&P+
LSU. 2010. 9 13
LSU. 2011. 2 2
LSU. 2012. 6 7
LSU. 2013. 38 35
LSU. 2014. 17 9
TA&M. 2015. 14 29
Average. 14 16

Venables-
FEI. S&P+
OU. 2010. 4 8
OU. 2011. 12 7
Clem. 2012. 55 34
Clem. 2013. 17 12
Clem. 2014. 2 2
Clem. 2015. 7 4
Average. 16 11

Foster-
FEI. S&P+
VT. 2010. 25 23
VT. 2011. 31 17
VT. 2012. 24 19
VT. 2013. 4 3
VT. 2014. 3 10
VT. 2015. 43 40
Average. 22 19

Narduzzi-
FEI. S&P+
MSU. 2010. 35 29
MSU. 2011. 6 6
MSU. 2012. 2 5
MSU. 2013. 2 2
MSU. 2014. 34 22
Average. 16 13

Smart-
FEI. S&P+
Bama. 2010. 16 5
Bama. 2011. 1 1
Bama. 2012. 4 1
Bama. 2013. 7 5
Bama. 2014. 12 3
Bama. 2015. 2 1
Average 7 3

Pruitt-
FEI. S&P+
FSU. 2013. 5 1
Geor. 2014. 35 17
Geor. 2015 16 11
Average 19 10
 
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Cane01 said:
Interpret this compilation however you will. This is just to start some discussion. P.S. Formatting sucks.

Here are some advanced defensive stats for Diaz as well as some other highly thought of recent DC's. Probably not elite, but objectively, probably much better than many are giving him credit for. I guess it depends how much stock you put in advanced stats. It's kind of like the baseball argument of RBIs vs wRC, old school vs new school.

Diaz-
FEI. S&P+
MSU 2010. 12 22
Tex. 2011. 9 9
Tex. 2012. 38 32
Tex. 2013. 31 44
LT. 2014. 9 24
MSU 2015. 51 37
Average. 25 28

Aranda-
FEI. S&P+
Haw. 2010. 71 32
Haw. 2011. 105 82
Utah St. 2012. 14 10
Wisc. 2013. 13 10
Wisc. 2014. 33 29
Wisc. 2015. 11 7
Average. 41 28

Brown-
FEI. S&P+
MD. 2010. 20 36
UCONN. 2011. 23 34
UCONN. 2012. 22 38
BC. 2013. 98 80
BC. 2014. 68 36
BC. 2015. 5 3
Average. 39 38

Chavis-
FEI. S&P+
LSU. 2010. 9 13
LSU. 2011. 2 2
LSU. 2012. 6 7
LSU. 2013. 38 35
LSU. 2014. 17 9
TA&M. 2015. 14 29
Average. 14 16

Venables-
FEI. S&P+
OU. 2010. 4 8
OU. 2011. 12 7
Clem. 2012. 55 34
Clem. 2013. 17 12
Clem. 2014. 2 2
Clem. 2015. 7 4
Average. 16 11

Foster-
FEI. S&P+
VT. 2010. 25 23
VT. 2011. 31 17
VT. 2012. 24 19
VT. 2013. 4 3
VT. 2014. 3 10
VT. 2015. 43 40
Average. 22 19

Narduzzi-
FEI. S&P+
MSU. 2010. 35 29
MSU. 2011. 6 6
MSU. 2012. 2 5
MSU. 2013. 2 2
MSU. 2014. 34 22
Average. 16 13

Smart-
FEI. S&P+
Bama. 2010. 16 5
Bama. 2011. 1 1
Bama. 2012. 4 1
Bama. 2013. 7 5
Bama. 2014. 12 3
Bama. 2015. 2 1
Average 7 3

Pruitt-
FEI. S&P+
FSU. 2013. 5 1
Geor. 2014. 35 17
Geor. 2015 16 11
Average 19 10
Click to expand...

Can you edit and give a short explaination of the stats listed? What is FEI, etc?
 
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Unadjusted game efficiency (GE) is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose.
 
sfcane2 said:
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Unadjusted game efficiency (GE) is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose.
Click to expand...

thanks
 
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I mean if he's top 25 in anything on the defensive side I will be very happy. I think this will be his best DL coach also.
 
Very interesting.

Especially if you started the analysis from an objective perspective, and weren't looking to prove an existing hypothesis.

Based on the information provided, I feel better about the hire.

Though, I am lusting after Chavis a little bit more ... :XvfmlQQ:
 
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The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). S&P+ ratings are based around the core concepts of the Five Factors: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.
While turnovers do not play a significant role in offensive and defensive ratings, here are the factors that do:

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

IsoPPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the equivalent point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. IsoPPP looks at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays (as defined by the Success Rate definition above); its goal is to separate the explosiveness component from the efficiency component altogether. For more information about IsoPPP, click here.

Red Zone S&P+: This measures drive-finishing ability by looking at the success rate and IsoPPP measures for only plays that come after a first down inside the opponent's 40-yard line. Coaches start adjusting their play-calling for a shrinking field closer to the 40 than the 20, and there is more separation between good and bad offenses if you look at plays in this range instead of plays inside the 20-yard line (as the redzone is commonly defined).

FP+: This is an opponent-adjusted measure of your ability to create field position advantages. This is based on drive data instead of per-play data. For an offense, it looks at field position you create for your defense (with help from special teams, which is not yet stripped out of these numbers); for a defense, it looks at the opposite.

Opponent adjustments: Each team's output for a given category (Success Rate, IsoPPP, and split stats like rushing, passing, redzone, standard downs, passing downs, etc.) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones. In the tables below, the "+" designation is for measures that are adjusted for opponent.

Garbage time adjustments: The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Passing Downs are defined as:
second down with 8 or more yards to go
third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go
 
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I would look at each DC and compare how they coached against the best offenses they faced. Games against inferior competition do not count unless they failed.
 
Interesting food for thought. Without having watched any of these guys as a primary team it seems like the biggest knock against Diaz vs. most of the rest of that list is that he's never coached an elite defense. His best was probably the 2011 Texas defense, which is exciting in relation to us because it was his first year there. I don't think it's unfair to say that at that point in his career he was probably as highly regarded as Aranda is now, though obviously his career took a few steps back from that point on.

I'd have preferred Aranda or Brown but I'm willing to give Diaz a fair shake. He's got a lot of major conference experience under his belt and maybe now he'll get the chance he thought he was getting at Texas to take his own career to the next level with better talent.
 
Sidenote. Don Brown is god**** beast. He was my top choice.

I would love to see us play like this:


[video=youtube;NVgu6ginWVo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVgu6ginWVo[/video]
 
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I did a study of the yards per play for Diaz's defenses at MSU this year against P5 teams. Then I looked at how each team against P5 schools not named MSU this year.

Against LSU his defense allowed 5.66 YPR, 5.07 YPPass, 5.52 YPPlay. LSU averaged 6.63 YPPlay against other P5 teams, an improvement of 1.10 yards per play.

Against Auburn his defe allowed 4.02 YPR, 6.71 YPPass, 4.99 YPPlay, Auburn avera 5.17 YPPlay against other P5 teams, an improvement of 0.18 yards per play.

Against A & M his defen allowed 4.33 YPR, 7.85 YPPass, 6.01 YPPlay, A & M averag 5.21 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of .81 yards per play.

Against Kentucky his D allowed 4.94 YPR, 5.00 YPPass, 4.98 YPPlay, Kentucky avg 5.15 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of .17 yards per play.

Against Mizzou his defe allowed 4.78 YPR, 4.12 YPPass, 4.54 YPPlay, Mizzou avera 4.21 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of .33 yards per play.

Against Alabama his D allowed 7.83 YPR, 5.76 YPPass, 6.89 YPPlay, Alabama avg 5.74 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of 1.16 yards per play.

Against Arkansas his D allowed 2.52 YPR, 9.44 YPPass, 6.65 YPPlay, Arkansas avg 6.41 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of .24 yards per play.

Against Ole Miss his D allowed 6.57 YPR, 7.87 YPPass, 7.15 YPPlay, Ole Miss avg. 6.31 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of .84 yards per play.

Against NC State his D allowed 4.12 YPR, 7.64 YPPass, 5.37 YPPlay, NC State avg. 5.36 YPPlay against other P5 teams, a decrease of .01 yards per play.

The fact still remains that 40 defenses fared better against their opponents on a per play basis among the P5 schools and they outperformed only 37 teams against the same opponents.

One note I found interesting, if nothing else, is that against Alabama his defense fared better on a per play basis than only one team: Wisconsin and the great Aranda. Alabama put up a ridiculous 7.61 YPPlay against Aranda's defense. Diaz's defense did not allow near that amount to any team despite playing a much tougher schedule.

I'm excited about the fact we are going back to a high pressure, aggressive 4-3 defense that believes in a shell behind it and asks the Safeties to help with the run and against the deep pass, but the numbers show Diaz to be merely a good DC, rather than a truly elite one. He was operating a defense that lost much of its talent from the year before- eight starters, including three of their starting defensive linemen. Jay Hughes was defensive captain at SS. Jamerson Love started 25 games. Matthew Wells started 33 games at SAM. Preston Smith was all-SEC and started 24 games on DL. Kaleb Eulls started 52 games and was invited to Senior Bowl at DL. PJ Jones started 27 games on the DL. Curtis Virges played in every career game on the DL. Bernardrick McKinney was a first team All-American and Butkus semi-finalist.

Frankly, to keep the defense as together as he was able to with losing all those players was fairly remarkable. His defense finished 48th in overall yards per play data, but that's with uneven competition due to them being in the SEC West. But, not only did Diaz keep the defense together in spite of needing to replace eight starters, they actually IMPROVED defensively from 72nd and 5.5 yards per play to the aforementioned 48th and 5.3 yards per play.

Given who they had to play, the losses sustained, and the resources available to them, I would say Diaz fared extremely well over the past two seasons. This was one at Miss. State and the previous one at La. Tech where he engineered another huge turnaround.
 
I will preface this by saying that I would have preferred that we hired Aranda but against Alabama...

Wisconsin = 502 yards given up.
MSU = 379 yards given up.

I am cautiously optimistic about the hire. I hope that I am right.
 
Thanks for the contributions, @Cane01 and @HurricaneVision. I love the advanced stats stuff. I'm still on my journey of looking at each play from MSU this past season. At the least, all their SEC games. I encourage any of you to do the same. In the Breakdown thread, someone was generous enough to post a link to each game. It's around Page 13 or 14. My general review - quarter by quarter - of the TAMU game is post #285 in that thread.

Thanks, again.
 
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