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Cristobal record after bye week FWIW

AtlAtty said:
Yeah we don’t seem to have the speed in the back of the defense to play as much man coverage as we do. We all like aggressive, but with our offense, all we need to do is force FG attempts.

The defense really has 1 job this season. Hold teams under 30 points. Do that every week and UM may not lose a game.
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I also like the odds of forcing a punt with a 3rd down sack or forced incompletion from the DL. You have more opportunities to get off the field giving up small chunks vs big plays. I don't know the statistics, I'll leave that for @Lance Roffers to figure out, but it's a lot harder to score TDs the more plays you have to run on a drive.

For example, you get the ball at the 25 after a kickoff. Let's just say you have a 80% (hypothetical) chance of making first down and you get exactly 10 yards when you do make a first down. You would need to make 7 1st downs for a TD. If my math is correct that would be: 0.8 ^ 7 (1st downs needed) = 0.209. You'd have an 20.9% chance of making a TD. Obviously, teams gain more than 10 yards per 1st down, but the whole idea is that if you force a team to need more 1st downs to get a TD, the likelihood of them scoring a TD goes down tremendously.

Conversely, sticking to the hypothetical 1st down success rate of 0.8, if you get a 60 yard chunk play to the opponents 15, you need only two 1st downs to score a TD, which is: 0.8 ^ 2 (1st downs needed) = 0.64. That's a 64% chance of getting a TD. That's a 43% better chance of getting a TD.

These aren't the true odds and I've oversimplified, but the whole point is the more plays you force a team to have on a drive, the likelihood of them scoring a TD goes way down. This should be our focus given our high powered offense. Playing aggressive highly leveraged schemes produces more boom or bust scenarios, which we don't need to win.
 
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Damiencane86 said:
Interesting. Outside of a freakish anamoly only 1 clear cut loss bodes well. I have total confidence in the O but Guidry has to make adjustments vs a coach who embarrassed him last year in Brohm. Just bend more than break and we likely win with style.
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Exactly. Knowing how bad Cal was in the red zone against FSU, we should have done a better job of limiting the big plays. We need to fix this against Louisville. Make them earn every point and we will beat them. Let them do what Cal did, and it'll take another miracle. You can't keep playing with fire without eventually getting burned.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Certainly no correlation to the one win coming when you couldn't leave your dorm/apartment/house.

I'm not worried about bye week **** in the least. We've played 6 consecutive weekends, 3 of them being on the road. It's all about getting rest and being healthy.
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We definitely need the Bye right now. No question. This is one of our best placed byes in a while in terms of scheduling context.

Our bye week record going back to at least 2016 (and I suspect further) is remarkably bad though compared to our overall record during that same stretch of time. Goes beyond just terrible luck though, there’s some seriously bad prep reflected in that time that can be hung on multiple coaching staffs.
 
ThomasM said:
Exactly. Knowing how bad Cal was in the red zone against FSU, we should have done a better job of limiting the big plays. We need to fix this against Louisville. Make them earn every point and we will beat them. Let them do what Cal did, and it'll take another miracle. You can't keep playing with fire without eventually getting burned.
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Cam taking a bit more of what defense gives him also keeps the O on field longer limiting Louisville TOP. But with all the time to prepare I think Guidry can do just enough to slow them down a bit.
 
CaneMutiny06 said:
We definitely need the Bye right now. No question. This is one of our best placed byes in a while in terms of scheduling context.

Our bye week record going back to at least 2016 (and I suspect further) is remarkably bad though compared to our overall record during that same stretch of time. Goes beyond just terrible luck though, there’s some seriously bad prep reflected in that time that can be hung on multiple coaching staffs.
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To me, the only constant during all that is the overall unseriousness of essentially every single entity of the entire program during that time.
 
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every season is different, Cal had lost their last 7 games following bye weeks leading into this past weekend and had us all but beat

now they're 0-8, but that 0-7 was misleading. depends on team culture and scheme. we have great scheme and great team culture, we'll be fine

we also only lost against GT due to an absolute hysterical collapse of our QB against a bad defense
 
AlexCane said:
Interesting. I would have expected worse, simply because I don't think Mario is the best Xs and Os guy, so that's assuring.
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Fair but he's a process guy. He looks for ways to improve constantly, and I think this season with the pieces we are seeing that play out.
 
I find it quite ironic when op's on a message board say a professional college coach is not a "x's and o's" guy. Lol. Just because MC isn't dialing up plays does not make him oblivious to x's and o's lol. Offensive and defensive lineman fall into the categories of x's and o's as well lol. Just something i found funny on our board since MC became the man. Carry on friends lol.
 
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ghost2 said:
To me it reads:

7-0 when you have appropriate talent and just need to heal and get right.

0-2 when you have to try and scheme your way out of talent gaps at major positions.
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I tend to agree with you. But here’s the million dollar question. Do we have appropriate talent this year, or do we need to scheme our way out of talent gaps at major positions?

At least when it comes to the secondary, I think those DB MEs were so awful that we require scheming. So not a slam dunk at all.
 
grover said:
I tend to agree with you. But here’s the million dollar question. Do we have appropriate talent this year, or do we need to scheme our way out of talent gaps at major positions?

At least when it comes to the secondary, I think those DB MEs were so awful that we require scheming. So not a slam dunk at all.
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Agreed. I think we're closer to the 7-0 than the 0-2, but not so close I'm ready to make assumptions lol
 
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